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UNLV2001

Nevada Election numbers

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Changed thread to track NV voting numbers

Note - My numbers will be only coming from Sec of State release, so you might see varying numbers on other sites as they sometimes use county specific data and data is coming in at all hours of the day 

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NV Sec of State update 

10/27 10:34 am

769,663 votes cast out of 1,806,531 active registered voters = 42.60% 

Dems at 323,275 = 42.00%

Reps at 269,441 = 35.01%

Others at 176,947 = 22.99%

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6 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

NV Sec of State update 

10/27 10:34 am

769,663 votes cast out of 1,806,531 active registered voters = 42.60% 

Dems at 323.275 = 42.00%

Reps at 269,441 = 35.01%

Others at 176,947 = 22.99%

How many Nevadans voted in 2016?

I know 136+ million voted nationwide in 2016. Hopefully that number goes well past 140 million this year.

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16 minutes ago, renoskier said:

How many Nevadans voted in 2016?

I know 136+ million voted nationwide in 2016. Hopefully that number goes well past 140 million this year.

2016 in NV was like this out of 1,122,990 votes cast 

Clinton - 537,753

trump - 511,319 

Johnson - 37,299

None of these - 28,824

Castle - 5,254

De La Fuente - 2,541 

 

So if '16 had 1,122,990 votes cast. and '20 has had 769,663 votes cast is 68.54% of the '16 total..........but there are around 200,000 more voters in NV in '20 over '16 

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NV Sec of State update 

10/28 9:30 am

835,0933 votes cast out of 1,808,843 active registered voters = 46.17%  +2,312 new registrations 

Dems at 345,150 = 41.33%  +21,875

Reps at 295,490 = 35.38%  +26,049

Others at 194,453 = 23.29%  +17,506

 

Previous numbers 10/27

769,663 votes cast out of 1,806,531 active registered voters = 42.60% 

Dems at 323,275 = 42.00%

Reps at 269,441 = 35.01%

Others at 176,947 = 22.99%

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https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

So what does this tell us? A few things:

First, the Republicans are up in the rurals by 30,000 ballots and nearly 28 percentage points with about half the vote in. Trump won rural Nevada by nearly 58,000 votes in 2016. I have said it could be as much as 70,000 this cycle. I may have underestimated it.

Second, in 2016, Trump won rural Nevada by 65-28. If we apply those numbers to the current turnout, he actually is up in rural Nevada by more than 40,000 votes. Indies in the rurals lean right. Might the president get above 70,000 and closer to 80,000? It's possible.

Third, this shows just how different those 15 counties are from the urban ones. And even though the percentage margins are huge, consider: If one million voters turn out in Clark County — and this seems about right — and Biden wins Clark by 10 points (Clinton won it by almost 11), that's 100,000 votes. That easily offsets the rural win, even if it is 80,000, and that would mean Trump would need to win Washoe by 20,000 votes to have a chance. That is highly unlikely if not impossible — Clinton won Washoe by 3,000 votes and Biden may do better. He surely will not do that much worse unless something very strange is happening. (The Democrats have a 5,000-ballot lead in Washoe right now.)

Suppose I am overestimating the Clark turnout. Suppose it is only 900,000 (unlikely). Even then, under the same scenario Biden would be in good shape unless urban indies are breaking hard for Trump.

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11 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

@mugtang is a Cali transplant?   

I mean technically yes. I moved here almost 22 years ago when I was 15. 

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NV Sec of State update 

10/29/20 12:36 pm

904,599 Votes cast out of 1,811,690 active registered voters = 49.93% +2,847 new registrations

Dems at 367,445 = 40.62%  +22,295

Reps at 323,893 = 35.81%  +28,403

Others at 213,261 = 23.58%  +18,808

 

Previous numbers 10/28 9:30 am

835,0933 votes cast out of 1,808,843 active registered voters = 46.17%  +2,312 new registrations 

Dems at 345,150 = 41.33%  +21,875

Reps at 295,490 = 35.38%  +26,049

Others at 194,453 = 23.29%  +17,506

Previous numbers 10/27

769,663 votes cast out of 1,806,531 active registered voters = 42.60% 

Dems at 323,275 = 42.00%

Reps at 269,441 = 35.01%

Others at 176,947 = 22.99%

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Total active registered voters by county

Clark - 1,284,599

Washoe - 304,307

Total Urban - 1,588,906

Total rural counties - 222,784 

Smallest County is Esmeralda with 561 reg voters of which 184 have voted (32.80%) 

Washoe County has the highest turnout % at 59.65%

Of NV's 17 counties 12 are over 50+% turnout 

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NV Sec of State update 

10/29/20 4:42 pm

955,922 Votes cast out of 1,811,690 active registered voters = 52.76% +0 new registrations

Dems at 386,614 = 40.44%  +19,169

Reps at 341,153 = 35.69%  +17,260

Others at 228,155 = 23.87%  +14,894

Previous numbers10/29/20 12:36 pm

904,599 Votes cast out of 1,811,690 active registered voters = 49.93% +2,847 new registrations

Dems at 367,445 = 40.62%  +22,295

Reps at 323,893 = 35.81%  +28,403

Others at 213,261 = 23.58%  +18,808

Previous numbers 10/28 9:30 am

835,0933 votes cast out of 1,808,843 active registered voters = 46.17%  +2,312 new registrations 

Dems at 345,150 = 41.33%  +21,875

Reps at 295,490 = 35.38%  +26,049

Others at 194,453 = 23.29%  +17,506

Previous numbers 10/27

769,663 votes cast out of 1,806,531 active registered voters = 42.60% 

Dems at 323,275 = 42.00%

Reps at 269,441 = 35.01%

Others at 176,947 = 22.99%

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Trafalgar's Nevada crosstabs   

https://drive.google.com/file/d/17CBTDAU6xkJ6jrrYOaAyTW62fAUxT0VB/view

have Biden with big support among NV women (52.6%-41.2%) and under 25 year olds (52.2%-35.2%). Women and Gen Z in Nevada do not like Trump.

The over 65 year olds are listed as 47.4% Trump; 45.5% Biden. Not a big margin for Trump in the Nevada senior citizen demo.

Trafalgar also has Biden with a big lead in NV CD1 and Trump with the lead in NV CD2. They have CD4 as Trump 46.5% and Biden 44.6%. CD3 is listed as basically a dead heat Biden 47.7% Trump 47.2%.

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10/30/20 3:47 pm

1,021,253 Votes cast out of 1,811,690 active registered voters = 56.37% +0 new registrations

Dems at 409,232 = 40.07%  +22,618

Reps at 364,948 = 35.74%  +23,795

Others at 247,073 = 24.19%  +18,918

 

10/29/20 4:42 pm

955,922 Votes cast out of 1,811,690 active registered voters = 52.76% +0 new registrations

Dems at 386,614 = 40.44%  +19,169

Reps at 341,153 = 35.69%  +17,260

Others at 228,155 = 23.87%  +14,894

Previous numbers10/29/20 12:36 pm

904,599 Votes cast out of 1,811,690 active registered voters = 49.93% +2,847 new registrations

Dems at 367,445 = 40.62%  +22,295

Reps at 323,893 = 35.81%  +28,403

Others at 213,261 = 23.58%  +18,808

Previous numbers 10/28 9:30 am

835,0933 votes cast out of 1,808,843 active registered voters = 46.17%  +2,312 new registrations 

Dems at 345,150 = 41.33%  +21,875

Reps at 295,490 = 35.38%  +26,049

Others at 194,453 = 23.29%  +17,506

Previous numbers 10/27

769,663 votes cast out of 1,806,531 active registered voters = 42.60% 

Dems at 323,275 = 42.00%

Reps at 269,441 = 35.01%

Others at 176,947 = 22.99%

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