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halfmanhalfbronco

Automation, immigration and birth rate.

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5 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

How should automation and AI influence the calculus for immigration policy now and in the upcoming decades?  

It has already changed Japan's immigration policies.  As the US birthrate declines, the US will see a population decline without immigration.  In the next decade, with automation also eliminating many jobs it is a difficult question to maintain a healthy population, for the economy, and yet not have a chunk of people with no work due to fewer jobs.  Others think automation will also create jobs as it eliminates others.  Really a tough question most of the world will have to deal with as the birth rate falls virtually worldwide.

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5 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

How should automation and AI influence the calculus for immigration policy now and in the upcoming decades?  

I guess it comes down to how refined automation and AI becomes....can it tell the difference between a ripe strawberry and one that needs a few more days before picking. Can automation and AI clean hotel rooms and condos, etc. 

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2 minutes ago, DestinFlPackfan said:

I guess it comes down to how refined automation and AI becomes....can it tell the difference between a ripe strawberry and one that needs a few more days before picking. Can automation and AI clean hotel rooms and condos, etc. 

I think we are a long ways off from that.  Not however from flipping burgers, meat processing, driving, some secretary work, tech support, some customer service and manufacturing.  A lot of traditional entry level jobs for the young or unskilled will no longer exist in the next 15-20 years.  Hospice, home health, hotel cleaning will all become increasingly crowded as there will be more unskilled laborers than unskilled jobs available.  Strawberry picker may end up being the job of choice for a 16 year old in California if they can not work fast food or retail.   

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4 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I think we are a long ways off from that.  Not however from flipping burgers, meat processing, driving, some secretary work, tech support, some customer service and manufacturing.  A lot of traditional entry level jobs for the young or unskilled will no longer exist in the next 15-20 years.  Hospice, home health, hotel cleaning will all become increasingly crowded as there will be more unskilled laborers than unskilled jobs available.  Strawberry picker may end up being the job of choice for a 16 year old in California if they can not work fast food or retail.   

Yes for sure , now how does that effect the calculus for immigration. ...

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2 minutes ago, DestinFlPackfan said:

Yes for sure , now how does that effect the calculus for immigration. ...

I think a lot depends on how popular the idea of UBI becomes in the next decade, as well.  The health of small business post COVID is a factor as well as they will be some of the last entry level jobs impacted by automation.

If small business does not have a robust rebound in the next 5 years, I would lean more towards limiting immigration.  If UBI becomes a thing, I would say have open borders but make it much harder to become a US citizen.  

Also, where the hell is @happycamper?  He had some good thoughts about how automation will create a lot of middle class jobs.  

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7 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I think a lot depends on how popular the idea of UBI becomes in the next decade, as well.  The health of small business post COVID is a factor as well as they will be some of the last entry level jobs impacted by automation.

If small business does not have a robust rebound in the next 5 years, I would lean more towards limiting immigration.  If UBI becomes a thing, I would say have open borders but make it much harder to become a US citizen.  

Also, where the hell is @happycamper?  He had some good thoughts about how automation will create a lot of middle class jobs.  

Just spit balling here but...how about a job number created by all businesses based on their  immediate needs. Granted they will be unskilled or low skilled and those jobs that aren't filled by home grown folks will be filled by immigrant applicants.  We will know the 'number' needed and can grant immigration based on that number. I don't see UBI becoming popular because investors want the max dividend on their investment.  Paying more to workers means less profit.

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Why is it necessary to keep growing? Why not improve the quality of life for a decreasing population? Not sure how, but we are going to have to ration the number of people going into different professions with the public’s need for that profession. The other dilemma is how to deal with over or under abundance of unskilled labor. It will be a tough balancing act for sure. 

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8 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Why is it necessary to keep growing? Why not improve the quality of life for a decreasing population? Not sure how, but we are going to have to ration the number of people going into different professions with the need for that profession. The other dilemma is how to deal with over or under abundance of unskilled labor. It will be a tough balancing act for sure. 

When I was in high school, there were vocational technical schools, for kids who wanted to learn welding, plumbing,  electrical , carpentry and vehicle maintenance skills. These kids who passed the courses got jobs in that field. They were guys/gals who were not going to go into the traditional college.  They made good money right out of tech school. Those skills need to be pushed more on kids. 

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2 hours ago, DestinFlPackfan said:

When I was in high school, there were vocational technical schools, for kids who wanted to learn welding, plumbing,  electrical , carpentry and vehicle maintenance skills. These kids who passed the courses got jobs in that field. They were guys/gals who were not going to go into the traditional college.  They made good money right out of tech school. Those skills need to be pushed more on kids. 

Vocational classes in High School still exist in much of the country.  District I retired from had classes that built a house from scratch and worked with trades as apprentices and assistants.  They also did dual credit with a local CC for work ready skills in welding, auto mechanics,  etc.  It was a separate standalone school called a career center.  Mechanics, graphic arts, coding, welding, carpenters, intro electrical work, etc

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14 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

How should automation and AI influence the calculus for immigration policy now and in the upcoming decades?  

I think it’s important that all immigrant robots be able to say the pledge, pass a civics test, and be proud to be an American and stay loyal. But we should have the country it came from to cover its repair warranty.

kat.jpg

 

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11 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I think we are a long ways off from that.  Not however from flipping burgers, meat processing, driving, some secretary work, tech support, some customer service and manufacturing.  A lot of traditional entry level jobs for the young or unskilled will no longer exist in the next 15-20 years.  Hospice, home health, hotel cleaning will all become increasingly crowded as there will be more unskilled laborers than unskilled jobs available.  Strawberry picker may end up being the job of choice for a 16 year old in California if they can not work fast food or retail.   

LOL. More like Tik Tok influencer, or mini-disaffected fascist, or mini-disaffected leftist. Gen Z is not going to the fields

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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7 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Why?  Do you not think the work force is going to be impacted by automation and artificial intelligence?  

Give us more than than.  

There's not a compelling reason. Why would automation or AI reduce the need for immigration in the short or intermediate term? Immigration increases economic growth, supports social programs, and encourages innovation. Restricting immigration is not something that helps companies in STEM fields. Society isn't at a point where automation or AI are taking away all jobs. Some positions have been displaced, but others have been added. Before COVID-19, unemployment was under the "natural rate."

In what world is the ideal country comprised of only old retirees? How is that good for national defense? How is it good for technological innovation? How is it good for quality of life? Retirees want access to quality healthcare. For that, more healthcare workers are needed. Clinical research is needed for new medicines, procedures, and treatments -- things that will prolong the average healthy lifespan. STEM workers drive innovation. Some Immigrants from STEM fields even work on developing AI.

In a scenario where artificial intelligence is capable of meeting all of society's demands, is immigration theoretically unnecessary? Sure, but so are domestic workers. At that point, what's the disadvantage of immigration either? AI would be capable of providing for them. Either way, that scenario isn't particularly relevant -- many of us won't be alive by then. 

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2 hours ago, Bob said:

Automation is a double edged sword. On one hand, it's great and helps companies become more profitable and efficient, but it puts people out of work. Man (and woman) was meant to work and derive worth from accomplishing tasks and having perpetual forward motion, whether that's inside or outside the home. When man doesn't work he does not have a sense of worth and belonging and then suffers. If the trend continues there will be far more people than jobs, and that's a recipe for disaster. Maybe it's worth it to stop automation just for the sake of the mental health of our country? How many people would be out of work if transportation were automated? 

You can't just "stop automation." If the United States stops, other countries will simply continue; our companies would be at a competitive disadvantage

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5 minutes ago, Danimaji said:

There's not a compelling reason. Why would automation or AI reduce the need for immigration in the short or intermediate term? Immigration increases economic growth, supports social programs, and encourages innovation. Restricting immigration is not something that helps companies in STEM fields. Society isn't at a point where automation or AI are taking away all jobs. Some positions have been displaced, but others have been added. Before COVID-19, unemployment was under the "natural rate."

In what world is the ideal country comprised of only old retirees? How is that good for national defense? How is it good for technological innovation? How is it good for quality of life? Retirees want access to quality healthcare. For that, more healthcare workers are needed. Clinical research is needed for new medicines, procedures, and treatments -- things that will prolong the average healthy lifespan. STEM workers drive innovation. Some Immigrants from STEM fields even work on developing AI.

In a scenario where artificial intelligence is capable of meeting all of society's demands, is immigration theoretically unnecessary? Sure, but so are domestic workers. At that point, what's the disadvantage of immigration either? AI would be capable of providing for them. Either way, that scenario isn't particularly relevant -- many of us won't be alive by then. 

We are a lot closer than you think.  According to this study, 50% of all jobs may be automatable with current technology.
 

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured Insights/Digital Disruption/Harnessing automation for a future that works/MGI-A-future-that-works_Full-report.ashx 

 

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42 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

We are a lot closer than you think.  According to this study, 50% of all jobs may be automatable with current technology.
 

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured Insights/Digital Disruption/Harnessing automation for a future that works/MGI-A-future-that-works_Full-report.ashx 

 

And yet, levels of employment remain remarkably steady. Certain positions are being displayed by AI, but others are expanding. Take a look at these BLS projections: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/mobile/fastest-growing.htm

The theoretical capacity of AI right now is interesting, but 50% of currently existing jobs will not be replaced immediately. Complete replacement of those positions will take quite some time. Another thing worth considering is that the positions being replaced now are mainly low-skill roles. High-skills jobs will take even longer to replace. I don't expect AI to completely replace human workers until at least 2045. That's an ambitious projection.

Also: migrant workers from STEM fields will help improve AI. US tech companies are supportive of increasing immigration too.

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2 hours ago, Bob said:

Automation is a double edged sword. On one hand, it's great and helps companies become more profitable and efficient, but it puts people out of work. Man (and woman) was meant to work and derive worth from accomplishing tasks and having perpetual forward motion, whether that's inside or outside the home. When man doesn't work he does not have a sense of worth and belonging and then suffers. If the trend continues there will be far more people than jobs, and that's a recipe for disaster. Maybe it's worth it to stop automation just for the sake of the mental health of our country? How many people would be out of work if transportation were automated? 

That would certainly be a race to the bottom. Is the rest of the world going to go along with this? The world gets smaller everyday.

Maybe it would be, if not easier, more realistic to change folks self-perception.

I am not what I do for a living, I refuse to identify my raison d'etre simply by the job that I do.

Aren't there lots of things you'd rather do than property management?

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image.png.3902abb427bef79c4fef28fb16996f69.png

So working age population (18-64) is about 203 million today.  Projected to be only 206 million in 2030 and 216 million by 2040. 

bls.gov is projecting a 3.7% increase in number of jobs over the next decade (even though population growth isn't near that).

https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/emp-by-detailed-occupation.htm

I don't think automation will come as fast as many predict.  It will for sure make many servers/cooks/fast food employees and cashiers less common - but a lot of that has already taken place.  When an automated vehicle can drive over a mountain pass in the winter while it's snowing - I will be more concerned. 

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