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Nevada Convert

Trump Hits 45.1% in RCP Average Approval Rating

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2 minutes ago, Rebelbacker said:

Trump is going to win the electoral college vote by a landslide. 

Do you think Trump will win Nevada?

Not sure if the redneck vote will push him to victory or not.  Pahrump and Minden are key for Trump, IMO.

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2 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

Here is what it looks like if Trump picks up Florida and Pennsylvania and the aforementioned states left open. Trump would have a slight lead and an easier path to victory if he picks up Florida and Pennsylvania. 

Arizona - Trending democrat for a while now. This could be the year it flips

Wisconsin - Could go either way. We will see. Trump is popular in the upper Midwest with White working class voters who have switched to the GOP. That is why it flipped in 2016

Michigan - Could go either Way. See the same comment above

Ohio - Maybe leans slightly to Trump but could go either way . See previous comment about upper Midwest States

North Carolina - Has gone to the Democrat candidate once since Carter won it in the 70's. Biden has nowhere near the enthusiasm that Obama enjoyed when he won North Carolina in 2008. 

image.png.9c1f9ab932e4ddc3f2d187ebf4e6074e.png

 

Currently:

Arizona: Biden +4

Wisconsin: Biden +7

Michigan: Biden +4

Ohio: Biden +2

North Carolina: Biden +1

Arizona: Biden +4

Florida: Biden +2

Pennsylvania: Biden +4

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That said he could certainly close the gap if he overperforms during the debates or if Biden really does seem like a dementia case in more than a 5 second clip, or if a vaccine is announced or something.  But right now it looks like Biden at 300+ electoral votes is most likely scenario.

 

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10 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Currently:

Arizona: Biden +4

Wisconsin: Biden +7

Michigan: Biden +4

Ohio: Biden +2

North Carolina: Biden +1

Arizona: Biden +4

Florida: Biden +2

Pennsylvania: Biden +4

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That said he could certainly close the gap if he overperforms during the debates or if Biden really does seem like a dementia case in more than a 5 second clip, or if a vaccine is announced or something.  But right now it looks like Biden at 300+ electoral votes is most likely scenario.

 

The RCP average is also closer for Trump than other poll aggregators. Even using RCP, Biden is currently favored as you pointed out.

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6 minutes ago, Rebelbacker said:

I don’t think so. I’ll make a wager with you. Trump wins by a bigger electoral margin than 2016. You game?

I’m not that confident in a Trump victory. I would say he has 50/50 odds right now. I will say that the last three presidential elections have been decided by whatever candidate had the enthusiasm advantage. Trump definitely has the enthusiasm advantage over Biden. 

If Trump was able to increase his margin of victory over 2016 , Democrats would literally have seizures and shit themselves. If would be very entertaining to watch. 

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20 minutes ago, Rebelbacker said:

Whatever you want. How about $100 to the charity of the winners choice. Proof posted on the site. I’ll play for Children's Heart Center of Nevada. 

Unfortunately, I can't afford to do something like that right now. I'll let you know if that changes before the election

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33 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

I’m not that confident in a Trump victory. I would say he has 50/50 odds right now. I will say that the last three presidential elections have been decided by whatever candidate had the enthusiasm advantage. Trump definitely has the enthusiasm advantage over Biden. 

If Trump was able to increase his margin of victory over 2016 , Democrats would literally have seizures and shit themselves. If would be very entertaining to watch. 

Get your popcorn ready. 

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2 hours ago, Rebelbacker said:

Whatever you want. How about $100 to the charity of the winners choice. Proof posted on the site. I’ll play for Children's Heart Center of Nevada. 

I'll take your wager. My charity is Jacobs and Cushman San Diego Food Bank.

One Caveat: This is the vote total after absentee and mail in ballots are counted, but before any legal challenges are filed.

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42 minutes ago, Los_Aztecas said:

I'll take your wager. My charity is Jacobs and Cushman San Diego Food Bank.

One Caveat: This is the vote total after absentee and mail in ballots are counted, but before any legal challenges are filed.

I’ll join in too. I think it’s unlikely that Trump wins by a larger margin than 2016 but I’ll happily donate to a good cause. 
 

My charity is https://camprainbowgold.org/

 

 

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You guys should make your charities planned parenthood and the NRA. Make it interesting. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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31 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

You guys should make your charities planned parenthood and the NRA. Make it interesting. 

I only donate to good causes.

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4 hours ago, Los_Aztecas said:

I'll take your wager. My charity is Jacobs and Cushman San Diego Food Bank.

One Caveat: This is the vote total after absentee and mail in ballots are counted, but before any legal challenges are filed.

Lol. What you are saying is you want to make a bet after the dems stuff the ballot box but before it goes to the courts to have those ballots thrown out. Any legal challenges are a part of the process just like in 2000.

The bet is the final electoral vote count when it is certified. Take it or leave it. 

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17 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

I’m not that confident in a Trump victory. I would say he has 50/50 odds right now. I will say that the last three presidential elections have been decided by whatever candidate had the enthusiasm advantage. Trump definitely has the enthusiasm STUPIDITY advantage over Biden. 

Tomayto, tomahto.

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