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Nevada Convert

Trump Hits 45.1% in RCP Average Approval Rating

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33 minutes ago, Danimaji said:

Biden doesn't need to win either state to reach 270 electoral votes. Winning Florida would put the election away. Winning Pennsylvania gives Biden a great shot. 

Florida isn't "looking pretty good" for either candidate. It looks like a tossup, which is basically how the state always ends up. Unfortunately for Trump, he doesn't have a viable path to reelection without Florida.

If Biden loses both Florida and Pennsylvania to Trump he is done. It is not 2008 anymore and the electorate is shifting. Middle class white working voters in the rust belt states who used to be so dependable for the Democrats have switched to the GOP. You think Biden will sweep WI, MI, OH because he would have to if he lost both Florida and Pennsylvania. 

Democrats are gaining voters in some southern and western states and they may pick up AZ , but they haven't gained enough to pick off Texas, or Georgia, or North Carolina. The cakewalk path to victory that you think Biden has does not exist. Hew still may win, but it is certainly not in the bag. 

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1 minute ago, bornontheblue said:

a dead heat is a 50% chance that either candidate could win. The betting odds are 50/50 right now. Read the graph. 

I've never gambled on a presidential election so maybe that's my problem but the graph doesn't seem to read 50/50 to me.

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Trump campaign plots winning maps without Florida (but insists they won’t be needed).

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article245760810.html

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19 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

If Biden loses both Florida and Pennsylvania to Trump he is done. It is not 2008 anymore and the electorate is shifting. Middle class white working voters in the rust belt states who used to be so dependable for the Democrats have switched to the GOP. You think Biden will sweep WI, MI, OH because he would have to if he lost both Florida and Pennsylvania. 

Democrats are gaining voters in some southern and western states and they may pick up AZ , but they haven't gained enough to pick off Texas, or Georgia, or North Carolina. The cakewalk path to victory that you think Biden has does not exist. Hew still may win, but it is certainly not in the bag. 

That statement is incorrect. In that scenario, Biden wouldn't need to win Ohio. Biden would need to win Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and one of the two contested congressional districts. Biden could also reach the threshold by taking any of the three states you mentioned. North Carolina is the most likely one for Biden. Polls show a narrow Biden lead in the state. I view NC as a tossup

Try it out for yourself: https://www.270towin.com/

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2 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

51/49 in from several of the oddsmakers is 50/50.

image.png.8cf8efdea08e447a9f9ee6d15b880605.png

The problem with that approach is that you're completely dismissing sites with better odds for Biden. There's a reason why people use averages.

Betting odds are but one measure. There are forecasts, statistical models, and other fundamentals that point to a Biden win.

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5 minutes ago, Danimaji said:

The problem with that approach is that you're completely dismissing sites with better odds for Biden. There's a reason why people use averages.

Betting odds are but one measure. There are forecasts, statistical models, and other fundamentals that point to a Biden win.

Yes. 52.1/47.5 is not a "dead heat."

dead heat
/ˈded ˈhēt/
 
noun
 
  1. a situation in or result of a race in which two or more competitors are exactly even.
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27 minutes ago, Danimaji said:

That statement is incorrect. In that scenario, Biden wouldn't need to win Ohio. Biden would need to win Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and one of the two contested congressional districts. Biden could also reach the threshold by taking any of the three states you mentioned. North Carolina is the most likely one for Biden. Polls show a narrow Biden lead in the state. I view NC as a tossup

Try it out for yourself: https://www.270towin.com/

Here is what it looks like if Trump picks up Florida and Pennsylvania and the aforementioned states left open. Trump would have a slight lead and an easier path to victory if he picks up Florida and Pennsylvania. 

Arizona - Trending democrat for a while now. This could be the year it flips

Wisconsin - Could go either way. We will see. Trump is popular in the upper Midwest with White working class voters who have switched to the GOP. That is why it flipped in 2016

Michigan - Could go either Way. See the same comment above

Ohio - Maybe leans slightly to Trump but could go either way . See previous comment about upper Midwest States

North Carolina - Has gone to the Democrat candidate once since Carter won it in the 70's. Biden has nowhere near the enthusiasm that Obama enjoyed when he won North Carolina in 2008. 

image.png.9c1f9ab932e4ddc3f2d187ebf4e6074e.png

 

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18 minutes ago, Danimaji said:

The problem with that approach is that you're completely dismissing sites with better odds for Biden. There's a reason why people use averages.

Betting odds are but one measure. There are forecasts, statistical models, and other fundamentals that point to a Biden win.

The average of all the odds makers is 52/48. You can see for yourself in the graph I posted. 52/48 is an even race. 

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Just now, bornontheblue said:

Splitting hairs here. C'mon now. 

As others have said, the nationwide numbers hardly matter now anyway (well, except to Convert). Some say the debates are important, some say the October economic numbers but to me, those seem to be small potatoes. Although Biden could cobble together a victory without either one, what's of by far the most significance is what occurs in Pennsylvania and Florida. If Trump doesn't win both of them, he's toast so I suspect he will be spend a lot of time and a lot of money in those two states going forward.

 

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1 hour ago, bornontheblue said:

Here is what it looks like if Trump picks up Florida and Pennsylvania and the aforementioned states left open. Trump would have a slight lead and an easier path to victory if he picks up Florida and Pennsylvania. 

Arizona - Trending democrat for a while now. This could be the year it flips

Wisconsin - Could go either way. We will see. Trump is popular in the upper Midwest with White working class voters who have switched to the GOP. That is why it flipped in 2016

Michigan - Could go either Way. See the same comment above

Ohio - Maybe leans slightly to Trump but could go either way . See previous comment about upper Midwest States

North Carolina - Has gone to the Democrat candidate once since Carter won it in the 70's. Biden has nowhere near the enthusiasm that Obama enjoyed when he won North Carolina in 2008. 

image.png.9c1f9ab932e4ddc3f2d187ebf4e6074e.png

 

No. Nevada leans blue. Biden has better odds in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

I don't agree with your enthusiasm argument. This election is shaping to be a referendum on Trump. Democratic voters are extremely motivated to vote Trump out.

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1 hour ago, 818SUDSFan said:

As others have said, the nationwide numbers hardly matter now anyway (well, except to Convert). Some say the debates are important, some say the October economic numbers but to me, those seem to be small potatoes. Although Biden could cobble together a victory without either one, what's of by far the most significance is what occurs in Pennsylvania and Florida. If Trump doesn't win both of them, he's toast so I suspect he will be spend a lot of time and a lot of money in those two states going forward.

 

I disagree here. Nationwide polling is usually more accurate. It doesn't tell us results on the state-level, but you can extrapolate some information. If Biden wins the popular vote by only two or three percent, the race is likely close. If Biden wins the popular vote by seven percent, he will almost certainly win the election. That's the main reason I wouldn't call the race over. There's not a *huge* gap between a tight race and a blowout, given current EC realities.

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10 minutes ago, Danimaji said:

No. Nevada leans blue. Biden has better odds in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

I don't agree with your enthusiasm argument. This election is shaping to be a referendum on Trump. Democratic voters are extremely motivated to vote Trump out.

How many supporters show up at a Biden event? He couldn't even fill up a Jr High Gymnasium. Trump will bring in thousands to a rally on short notice. Biden has nowhere close to Trump's enthusiasm from the base 

You are right Nevada leans Blue

AZ- **May**    go blue. It has been trending that way but we don't know. 

MI & WI  - Did you read what I said earlier about Upper midwest Rust belt states. The democrats have lost their edge in that part of the country. 2016 wasn't a fluke here, but the start of a trend. 

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6 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

How many supporters show up at a Biden event? He couldn't even fill up a Jr High Gymnasium. Trump will bring in thousands to a rally on short notice. Biden has nowhere close to Trump's enthusiasm. 

You are right Nevada leans Blue

AZ- **May**    go blue. It has been trending that way but we don't know. 

MI & WI  - Did you read what I said earlier about Upper midwest Rust belt states. The democrats have lost their edge in that part of the country. 2016 wasn't a fluke here, but the start of a trend. 

How'd that work out for Democratic nominee Bernie Sanders? Oh yeah, it didn't. A strong, passionate base keeps you in the race but it doesn't win it for you.

I disagree with you on Wisconsin and Michigan. Wisconsin should be fairly close, but if things stay the same (big assumption), Biden likely wins. According to polling, Biden is outperforming HRC's 2016 margin with WWC voters and seniors. States are also a tiny bit more diverse now.

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5 minutes ago, Danimaji said:

How'd that work out for Democratic nominee Bernie Sanders? Oh yeah, it didn't. A strong, passionate base keeps you in the race but it doesn't win it for you.

I disagree with you on Wisconsin and Michigan. Wisconsin should be fairly close, but if things stay the same (big assumption), Biden likely wins. According to polling, Biden is outperforming HRC's 2016 margin with WWC voters and seniors. States are also a tiny bit more diverse now.

The electorate is shifting. 

Some western states and southern states have been trending blue (NC, GA, TX, AZ, NV), but still could , or likely will go red.  Some western states are reliably blue now ( CO, NM). The Upper Midwest used to be  locked in for the Democrats because of union support from working class white voters. These voters have long been neglected by the Democrats, and were very keen on Trumps focus on economic policies that promote economic growth and jobs. The Democrats have instead tried to build a patchwork coalition of Minorities, and Urban voters. It worked out great for Obama,  not so great for Hillary. We will see with Biden. He is no Obama though and is a very underwhelming candidate. 

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