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No bump for Trump

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8 hours ago, smltwnrckr said:

Vox.com: New poll shows RNC didn’t help Trump’s approval ratings.
https://www.vox.com/2020/8/30/21407646/trump-approval-poll-rnc-abc-news-ipsos

You’re a polling rookie, as well. VOX? That far left joint is as bad as MSLSD. The article author cherry picks data to get the result he wants. That’s like asking Alex at Info Wars to analyze election polling for you. It’s meaningless, end of story. 

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Hey @Nevada Convert,

What do you think of this guy and his predictions? Got to hand it to him that he said Trump would win in 2016 so his system worked. It wasn't like he just picked the obvious polls leader every time.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allan-lichtman-presidential-election-accurate-prediction-trump-biden/

The professor famous for accurately predicting the winner of every presidential election since 1984 has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump. American University Professor Allan Lichtman uses a system he created of 13 "keys" that decide who will win the White House. In 2016, Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who said Mr. Trump would be the next president — and he also predicted that Trump would be impeached. Four years after those calls, he foresees a Biden victory in November.

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11 minutes ago, toonkee said:

Hey @Nevada Convert,

What do you think of this guy and his predictions? Got to hand it to him that he said Trump would win in 2016 so his system worked. It wasn't like he just picked the obvious polls leader every time.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allan-lichtman-presidential-election-accurate-prediction-trump-biden/

The professor famous for accurately predicting the winner of every presidential election since 1984 has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump. American University Professor Allan Lichtman uses a system he created of 13 "keys" that decide who will win the White House. In 2016, Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who said Mr. Trump would be the next president — and he also predicted that Trump would be impeached. Four years after those calls, he foresees a Biden victory in November.

Whether I want the good results of their predictions or not, I don’t believe any of them. There’s a few that say Trump wins and a few say Biden, so some of these amazing world class predictors will lose. It’s just luck. There’s always a few that get lucky and pick the NCAA Tourney right, or pick all the Loto numbers right, etc.

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17 minutes ago, toonkee said:

Hey @Nevada Convert,

What do you think of this guy and his predictions? Got to hand it to him that he said Trump would win in 2016 so his system worked. It wasn't like he just picked the obvious polls leader every time.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allan-lichtman-presidential-election-accurate-prediction-trump-biden/

The professor famous for accurately predicting the winner of every presidential election since 1984 has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump. American University Professor Allan Lichtman uses a system he created of 13 "keys" that decide who will win the White House. In 2016, Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who said Mr. Trump would be the next president — and he also predicted that Trump would be impeached. Four years after those calls, he foresees a Biden victory in November.

Here’s an expert goof that says Trump wins again. 

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26 minutes ago, Nevada Convert said:

Whether I want the good results of their predictions or not, I don’t believe any of them. There’s a few that say Trump wins and a few say Biden, so some of these amazing world class predictors will lose. It’s just luck. There’s always a few that get lucky and pick the NCAA Tourney right, or pick all the Loto numbers right, etc.

K, but this guy's method has been right 9 times in row. This ain't some guy throwing stuff at a wall and seeing what sticks. 

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2 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

Dude, are you really that clueless on polling? You don’t take an article from an anti-Trump yahoo @ ABC News or anyone else and declare anything has happened. You look at the RCP average. Here’s what’s happening.

1. There’s still about half of the polls that haven’t released numbers post-convention. 
2. There definitely IS a bump so far, and it’ll get better. Emerson just had a poll with Trump approval at 49% that was previously low 40’s. Zogby just released an approval of 52% which is the highest ever for Zogby. The other day Trump’s RCP average was 43.4, today it’s 44.4. With many more post convention numbers coming soon, it should keep going up. A brand new General Election Poll by Emerson has Biden up by 2. 

3. In the last election, the hidden Trump support was about 2% to 5%. This year researchers believe it’ll be at least double that. Another election expert has it at 12%. That’s freaking huge. 

4. A few weeks ago when Trump was stagnantly blah, CNN tried an interesting question and it didn’t get much press. They asked people who their next door neighbor is going to vote for and it should be the neighbor you know the best. Trump head to head with Biden had Trump ahead 2.5%. The regular polls had Trump down 9% to 10%. Ironically, that’s about a 12% swing. 

I just reported a story nothing more. But I do appreciate your analysis. 

The Masters 5k road race All American.

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3 hours ago, toonkee said:

K, but this guy's method has been right 9 times in row. This ain't some guy throwing stuff at a wall and seeing what sticks. 

Yeah, but 6 of the 9 were easy. Both W Bush’s and then Trump’s were the only tough picks. An election has sooooooo many variables that it’s impossible have a way of predicting them. It’s kind of like betting at a sports book. Doing your homework can certainly help you account for some variables, but a good portion of it is also luck. 

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10 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

Yeah, but 6 of the 9 were easy. Both W Bush’s and then Trump’s were the only tough picks. An election has sooooooo many variables that it’s impossible have a way of predicting them. It’s kind of like betting at a sports book. Doing your homework can certainly help you account for some variables, but a good portion of it is also luck. 

So why should we pay attention to your poll threads?

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1 hour ago, tspoke said:

Morning consult released their post conventions polling. 

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/

No bounce big shift in AZ. 

All those Californians moving out to Arizona. Hey, for once colonialism is a good thing! :ph34r:

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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1 minute ago, azgreg said:

 

Maybe they take their political heritage seriously out there. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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