Election Prediction

[halfmanhalfbronco]

18 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

 

This has nothing to do with new sources. Or with any argument that anything is 100% safe. This has to do with the fact that Stunner hasn't nailed anything down, nor have you or anyone else. Give me a plausible scenario in which mail-in ballot fraud is perpetrated by a foreign power. I'll wait forever if I have to. And I know I'll have to, because there isn't one.

YET!

 

The mail in vote thing is mind numbingly dumb if R's think about it for 30 seconds.  In a Pandemic, who is less likely to stand in line and vote.  Gam Gam Trump lover with pre existing conditions or the crowd that is only not at bars right now because they are closed?  Seems mail in voting is the best way to insure high participation from boomers.

[Spaztecs]

1 hour ago, #1Stunner said:

 

Hell.... I wouldn't be surprised if our official election ballots are printed in China.

 

[Spaztecs]

1 hour ago, smltwnrckr said:

That's funny. I get this is a gag, but I just want to point out for people who actually think that you're speaking truth here that in my city alone there are like 5 or 6 different ballots depending on the neighborhood. My county? Who knows? My state? It keeps getting bigger. The idea that the Chinese or Russians could somehow produce real-looking ballots that match the local races to the individuals living in those districts who are registered to vote (and have the correct scanner, signature and postmarks) is batshit insane. Like I said, it would literally be easier to just invade a-la Red Dawn. 

And there are people who claim to believe what you're saying here. 

You can flip toss up districts with only 3-4 % of the ballots. Hell, a small crew of people can remove ballots from registered D or R mailboxes so those ballots won't get counted.

You can safely put your ballot in the ballot box at the P.O., county clerk's office or library.ñ

[Mano]

Here in Utah we have universal mail in ballots, and to my knowledge have had zero issues.

[Spaztecs]

1 hour ago, #1Stunner said:

Had a thought...

What about having to get a mail in ballot notarized by the voter and a notary, after which, the ballot is immediately sealed with a non-tamper sticker and mailed in.

That might work. 

Would promote social distancing, virtually eliminate fraud, and would satisfy Democrats who are concerned about the COVID-19 spread and dislike having to drive to a polling location.

 

@Akkula  would a Notary be fair?

Are there enough notaries ? Will they want to sit in their office late nights for a week or two and run the risk of contracting Covid from some knuckleheaded anti-masker ?

[Spaztecs]

1 hour ago, #1Stunner said:

Here grandma....

Let me help you fill out that mail in ballot.  Don't worry, I'll take care of mailing it in...

 

.(secretly votes for mandatory euthanasia ballot initiative on the ballot for senior citizens over 75).

 

I'll let Grandma and Grandpa fill out their own ballots. Then, I will offer to take them to the PO and never mail them because I disagree with their choices.

[Spaztecs]

52 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

Sadly, this is a possibility in Ogden. 

I could see some young partisans trying to do this.   

It's a possibility everywhere.

[Spaztecs]

46 minutes ago, Spaztecs said:

 

[Spaztecs]

47 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

You just indicated voting can be changed by fraudulent practices. 

That's a fact Jack.

[Spaztecs]

45 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

They really need to allow in-person voting over the course of many weeks. 

Winner, 

Winner,

Chicken Dinner !

[Spaztecs]

43 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

That's a great plan for getting caught. 

How ?

The average registered voter has zero clue about down ballot races or ballot initiatives not related to legal pot. They have no clue who their State Rep or local dog catcher is. Most vote party affiliation or our neighbors down ballot. They would have no clue if they had the wrong ballot.

Once they mail it in, the county recorders office and/or poll workers would notice the polling districts don't match and disqualify the ballot.

There's no paper or data trail.

[aztech]

2 hours ago, smltwnrckr said:

That's funny. I get this is a gag, but I just want to point out for people who actually think that you're speaking truth here that in my city alone there are like 5 or 6 different ballots depending on the neighborhood. My county? Who knows? My state? It keeps getting bigger. The idea that the Chinese or Russians could somehow produce real-looking ballots that match the local races to the individuals living in those districts who are registered to vote (and have the correct scanner, signature and postmarks) is batshit insane. Like I said, it would literally be easier to just invade a-la Red Dawn. 

And there are people who claim to believe what you're saying here. 

Agree.  Has anyone ever watched a documentary showing how ballots are processed?  There are cameras, everywhere.  The machines toss out duplicate bar-code ballots or other phony ballots.  Once there it's very foolproof.

The only way they can corrupt the system is harvesting unfilled ballots with signatures.  Hell, what legal voter would do that?        

 

[Akkula]

3 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

Had a thought...

What about having to get a mail in ballot notarized by the voter and a notary, after which, the ballot is immediately sealed with a non-tamper sticker and mailed in.

That might work. 

Would promote social distancing, virtually eliminate fraud, and would satisfy Democrats who are concerned about the COVID-19 spread and dislike having to drive to a polling location.

 

@Akkula  would a Notary be fair?

We are searching for a solution to a nonexistent problem.   

[toonkee]

All systems are only as good as the people maintaining them. American elections have been relatively cool because the people running them often have a sense of American pride about them and what they mean. That feeling has been bigger than party. 

We're going to have big problems in the near future as more and more people feel their party is more important than the actual things that make America great, like faith and reverence for American elections and institutions. When you believe any Republican is better than any Democrat, or vice versa, there is no market for good people in office, and no market to run fair elections.

The laws and courts will not save us when the running of elections is so thoroughly politicized. It is up to us to be good and to believe in the goodness of those things.

[smltwnrckr]

3 hours ago, Spaztecs said:

You can flip toss up districts with only 3-4 % of the ballots. Hell, a small crew of people can remove ballots from registered D or R mailboxes so those ballots won't get counted.

You can safely put your ballot in the ballot box at the P.O., county clerk's office or library.ñ

And how are the Russians or the chinese gonna do that?

[smltwnrckr]

3 hours ago, Spaztecs said:

How ?

The average registered voter has zero clue about down ballot races or ballot initiatives not related to legal pot. They have no clue who their State Rep or local dog catcher is. Most vote party affiliation or our neighbors down ballot. They would have no clue if they had the wrong ballot.

Once they mail it in, the county recorders office and/or poll workers would notice the polling districts don't match and disqualify the ballot.

There's no paper or data trail.

In order to successfully flip 3-4 % using this method, you'd have to canvas a much larger percentage of the district... at least 10 percent. Probably more. All you need is a couple sharp eyes on behalf of the voters to report it, and then on the back end you'd only need a couple identical phony ballots sighted by the elections office (who take this stuff very seriously, in almost all cases, especially in swing districts). Track the envelopes back to the post office where they were first processed and the federal investigators are off to the races. And thata just one district. How many districts would you need to flip? And in turn, how many attempts do you need to get to that number? 

And that's not even considering how quick some goons get caught rummaging through grandma's mail, as you suggested would be easy.

Fishing scams succeed by sheer numbers. Using actual mail makes it easier to find the fishermen. It would be such a massive scandal that whomever did it would be effing hammered for this. So its very high risk, very low likelihood for success. Logistically difficult, with need for a pretty vast network of conspirators. And that's if it's domestic. A group of Russians or chinese makes it harder to prosecute, but impossible to actually pull off as the postage and the translation and the cloning are all exponentially harder when doing it internationally.

[PokeTransplant]

What I find comical about this entire discussion is that you can provide factual, unbiased, studies showing that a problem does not exist.  
Response:  "But what if xxxx happens?"

Show evidence that there is no evidence that xxxx has ever happened and the safeguards against it happening.

Response:  "But what if yyyy happens and xxxx happens?"

Show evidence that there is no correlation between yyyy and xxxx and the probability of xxxx occurring still has no basis in fact.

Response:  "But what if, but what if, but what if........"

If people want to put forth an argument that an entire process is flawed, at least provide some factual evidence to back your theory.  Gut feelings or witnessing the neighbor seal an envelope for Grandpa is not evidence.  It is completely disingenuous to espouse an opinion as fact when not supported by anything other than what has been disproven echoed over and over to further your position on an issue.  I get that this is all a game to some of you.  For some of us, we actually look at all of the evidence and follow the facts before forming an opinion instead of bunkering in an echo chamber of speculation, conspiracy, and conjecture.  Not that they want it, but I do feel bad for those that refuse to look outside their bubble with clear eyes and open minds even though what they see may differ from what they deem comfortable.  

[SJSUMFA2013]

2 hours ago, PokeTransplant said:

What I find comical about this entire discussion is that you can provide factual, unbiased, studies showing that a problem does not exist.  
Response:  "But what if xxxx happens?"

Show evidence that there is no evidence that xxxx has ever happened and the safeguards against it happening.

Response:  "But what if yyyy happens and xxxx happens?"

Show evidence that there is no correlation between yyyy and xxxx and the probability of xxxx occurring still has no basis in fact.

Response:  "But what if, but what if, but what if........"

If people want to put forth an argument that an entire process is flawed, at least provide some factual evidence to back your theory.  Gut feelings or witnessing the neighbor seal an envelope for Grandpa is not evidence.  It is completely disingenuous to espouse an opinion as fact when not supported by anything other than what has been disproven echoed over and over to further your position on an issue.  I get that this is all a game to some of you.  For some of us, we actually look at all of the evidence and follow the facts before forming an opinion instead of bunkering in an echo chamber of speculation, conspiracy, and conjecture.  Not that they want it, but I do feel bad for those that refuse to look outside their bubble with clear eyes and open minds even though what they see may differ from what they deem comfortable.  

Ok but what if gremlins steal my ballot and vote for gizmo? WHAT THEN

[smltwnrckr]

1 minute ago, SJSUMFA2013 said:

Ok but what if gremlins steal my ballot and vote for gizmo? WHAT THEN

Gremlins would vote for Spike. 

[SJSUMFA2013]

1 minute ago, smltwnrckr said:

Gremlins would vote for Spike. 

You think gremlins are immune from being tricked into voting against their own interests?