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Nevada Convert

Election Prediction

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Ballot failure with absentee and mail in ballots is a problem even without shenanigans. It becoming a partisan issue is not good news for the side that embraces it more fully, and the larger the divide the worse the problem gets.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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30 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Ballot failure with absentee and mail in ballots is a problem even without shenanigans. It becoming a partisan issue is not good news for the side that embraces it more fully, and the larger the divide the worse the problem gets.

Doesn't that give an incentive to those who dont embrace it to make it a partisan issue?

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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36 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

 

I've never understood why refusal to do an all mail in voting election disproportionately harms Democrats.   How does it only harm Democrats?  What are your thoughts on why?

 

It doesn't. Theres been reporting on that already. It's why suddenly Trump made the Florida exception.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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2 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Why yes, yes it does.

Except for in florida, apparently.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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3 hours ago, happycamper said:

tell us the results, please

About 10 years ago the Four Loko controversy was kicking off (man... simple times). A major publication - NYT? WSJ? one of those had an article about it, and had a poll whether it should be banned.

One of the poll options was "NO WAY! Four Loko leads to awesome partying!" I'm guessing that this was an online only article and they threw it to their online person, in 2010.

The poll results ended up abut 93% "Four Loko leads to awesome partying" with an absurd amount of votes (upwards of 80,000 IIRC). 

I keep that in mind when I see self selected internet polling

Boaty Mc Boatface

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Guest #1Stunner
1 hour ago, smltwnrckr said:

California also allows you to mail in your ballot. Most people who I know who vote early, but "in person," are dropping off their absentee ballots - including myself. Why is it better to drop off the envelope as opposed to send it via mail?

My gut reaction is that the best way to prevent fraud is in-person voting.

That's why so far the best compromise seems to be to allow in-person voting over the course of an entire month.  Not sure why anyone would think that is a bad idea. 

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8 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Except for in florida, apparently.

Only if a lot of your constituents are more afraid of catching a virus that is particularly deadly for their age group than voting. That’ll change the tune real quick.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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1 minute ago, #1Stunner said:

My gut reaction is that the best way to prevent fraud is in-person voting.

That's why so far the best compromise seems to be to allow in-person voting over the course of an entire month.  Not sure why anyone would think that is a bad idea. 

As much as I'd like to see electoral policy based your gut reaction... ill go with your example of the way we should do it in California where voting by mail is easy and works just fine.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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2 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Only if a lot of your constituents are more afraid of catching a virus that is particularly deadly for their age group than voting. That’ll change the tune real quick.

Who happen to be more likely to vote for you, coincidentally.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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Apparently it isn't easy for some to find factual news outside of their echo chambers....

I'll leave this here as well.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-vote-by-mail-explainer/explainer-fraud-is-rare-in-us-mail-in-voting-here-are-the-methods-that-prevent-it-idUSKBN2482SA

Explainer: Fraud is rare in U.S. mail-in voting. Here are the methods that prevent it

 

5 MIN READ

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With the number of Americans voting by mail on Nov. 3 expected to nearly double due to COVID-19, election experts see little reason to expect an increase in ballot fraud, despite President Donald Trump’s repeated claims.

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Guest #1Stunner
3 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

As much as I'd like to see electoral policy based your gut reaction... ill go with your example of the way we should do it in California where voting by mail is easy and works just fine.

OK.  But if anyone is being honest, I think there is a legit concern that Mail Voting is the easiest form of voting to interfere with.

It's the difference between mail fraud and in person fraud.  Which would be easier???

I mean, China and Russia (who have tried to interfere in our elections in the past) can easily mess with this.

 

Also, I haven't heard any Democrats explain why they think mail in voting works to their advantage....  Why are Democrats against expanded in-person voting, in order to preclude China / Russia tampering?

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2 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

OK.  But if anyone is being honest, I think there is a legit concern that Mail Voting is the easiest form of voting to interfere with.

It's the difference between mail fraud and in person fraud.  Which would be easier???

I mean, China and Russia (who have tried to interfere in our elections in the past) can easily mess with this.

 

Also, I haven't heard any Democrats explain why they think mail in voting works to their advantage....  Why do against expanded in-person voting, in order to preclude China / Russia tampering?

Well lots of states have in person voting that uses a computer screen and doesn't print out a paper back-up ballot. And hackers have shown they aren't difficult to break into. So I may be inclined to say in person is easier for fraud. Especially with all the failsafes put into place over the many many years of successful mail in voting.

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Guest #1Stunner
Just now, tspoke said:

Well lots of states have in person voting that uses a computer screen and doesn't print out a paper back-up ballot. And hackers have shown they aren't difficult to break into. So I may be inclined to say in person is easier for fraud. Especially with all the failsafes put into place over the many many years of successful mail in voting.

Really?

I haven't heard of any states that don't print out a paper back-up ballot.

Which states aren't taking such a precaution?!?!?   That's outrageous. 

 

I completely disagree with you that in-person voting is more susceptible to fraud than mail in voting.  I'm not sure how you can think that.   The in-person voting you'd have to appear in person, and lie about your identity to someone.

Regardless... I think it is all but certain that China and Russia will try to interfere with our election again.  I can seen China and Russia trying to create fraudulent mail in ballots.

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10 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

OK.  But if anyone is being honest, I think there is a legit concern that Mail Voting is the easiest form of voting to interfere with.

It's the difference between mail fraud and in person fraud.  Which would be easier???

I mean, China and Russia (who have tried to interfere in our elections in the past) can easily mess with this.

 

Also, I haven't heard any Democrats explain why they think mail in voting works to their advantage....  Why are Democrats against expanded in-person voting, in order to preclude China / Russia tampering?

I'd take your concern more seriously if I hadn't been around elections offices in multiple states over multiple elections. Hell, they were saying the same thing about updating systems after 2001. 

Also, how exactly would it be easy for China and Russia to mess with mail-in voting? It seems to me it would be incredibly difficult for them to do so.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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Guest #1Stunner

I guess in theory, Russia or China could send over thousands of citizens to fraudulently appear at polling places in November, and vote in the election.

So in theory, the Russians or Chinese could interfere with either system.  Mail voting or in-person voting.

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3 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

How long have you been beating your wife?  (is that how introductory over the top sentences are supposed to work?)

 

Beating my wife has nothing to do with the topic. Wondering if you're living in a cave does because this topic has been hashed out by the media and this board numerous times.  Not trying to be rude.

I've never understood why refusal to do an all mail in voting election disproportionately harms Democrats.   How does it only harm Democrats?  What are your thoughts on why?

 

 

 

It prevents them from voting because many States have said there will be no in person voting. How else you gonna vote ?  Is everybody going to move  to the left or right side of the room on election day ? Trump believes that mail in voting hurts R's. He said it numerous times. Trumpistan believes that only Dems and not R's will fraudulently cast mail in ballots.

  The rules for most States seem to be similiar for mail in and absentee voting. The difference between mail in ballots and absentee voting is, mail in ballots have to be verified and counted. Absentee ballots are only counted if the margin of victory is less then the total number of absentee ballots.  R's have historically understood that lower voter turnout usually mean R wins.

Trumpistan also believes in shutting down polling locations. Esp in Dem districts because there won't be enough poll workers due to virus fears, etc  So, if we only open the ones in R districts, mostly R's will vote. D's won't be allowed to because they are in the wrong precincts. They will have to cast provisional ballots that won't be counted. They won't be allowed to vote by mail. 

So, the R's win because we know they vote early and often and theirs will be the only votes counted.

 

 

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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2 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

Really?

I haven't heard of any states that don't print out a paper back-up ballot.

Which states aren't taking such a precaution?!?!?   That's outrageous. 

 

https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/457168-report-says-eight-states-to-use-paperless-voting-in-2020-despite

and there were more in 2016 and 2018. Georgia didn't have paper ballots and there was a lawsuit to check the voting records for any misconduct and the secretary of state who won the election had to backup servers wiped after the lawsuit was filed.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/georgia-election-server-wiped-after-suit-filed

6 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

 

Regardless... I think it is all but certain that China and Russia will try to interfere with our election again.  I can seen China and Russia trying to create fraudulent mail in ballots.

Did you read this link it shows why that isn't very feasible.

16 minutes ago, PokeTransplant said:

Apparently it isn't easy for some to find factual news outside of their echo chambers....

I'll leave this here as well.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-vote-by-mail-explainer/explainer-fraud-is-rare-in-us-mail-in-voting-here-are-the-methods-that-prevent-it-idUSKBN2482SA

 

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