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mugtang

CSU Covid Outbreak

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thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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I was watching a PBS show on the virus two days ago and heard something I had not heard before. Two medicos, one from the CDC and another from the Cleveland Clinic, both of which have worked on vaccines, said there had never been a workable vaccine produced and approved in less than 4 years and that the average developed and approved vaccine took just over 10 years. At that rate we as a nation will be in a 1930 style depression and all our sports programs will have been cancelled.

I hope I am wrong but every day the situation seems worse.

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3 hours ago, 1066 said:

I was watching a PBS show on the virus two days ago and heard something I had not heard before. Two medicos, one from the CDC and another from the Cleveland Clinic, both of which have worked on vaccines, said there had never been a workable vaccine produced and approved in less than 4 years and that the average developed and approved vaccine took just over 10 years. At that rate we as a nation will be in a 1930 style depression and all our sports programs will have been cancelled.

I hope I am wrong but every day the situation seems worse.

One huge advantage that researchers have in developing a vaccing for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is the years of experience they already have with researching and developing vaccines for other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS.  If science was starting from ground zero with this most recent coronavirus we would be looking at a much longer timeframe for vaccine development.  Another difference in our favor is in the number of organizations, be they public or private that are working on a vaccine for COVID-19 which is somewhat unprecedented.  Fingers crossed!

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43 minutes ago, NorthWestCowboy said:

One huge advantage that researchers have in developing a vaccing for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is the years of experience they already have with researching and developing vaccines for other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS.  If science was starting from ground zero with this most recent coronavirus we would be looking at a much longer timeframe for vaccine development.  Another difference in our favor is in the number of organizations, be they public or private that are working on a vaccine for COVID-19 which is somewhat unprecedented.  Fingers crossed!

 

 

Also some of that length of time is because of how we do the research. Usually there is significant time between phases to evaluate and assess. We also usually wait to mass produce vaccines until they are proven.

 

We are slamming the phases back to back, we are mass producing vaccines already that may not work as we wait for the last phase that says it does.

 

The idea we will have a workable and distributed vaccine by New Years is virtually impossible even with the time cut, living dangerously, and doing multiple steps at once, is just not realistic. The earliest we could see mass distribution of the vaccine is mid-spring 2021. Although a may/june window is probably the best we could do. 

 

All the signs currently point towards having at least a flu-vaccine set up that gives us a yearly immunity. Even if it's almost a year from now that would be incredibly fast.  Just one of many reasons we need to be following the best science and not dreaming of cures, 150k dead in what amounts to five months of community spread is another.

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18 hours ago, mugtang said:

 

 

Headlines like this are why we might see entire Universities cancel their seasons. 

It's fun to talk about schedules, but we are only a few weeks away from the start of football season.   Doesn't seem very plausible. 

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I think the only reason conference commissioners and ADs are holding out for even the slightest bit of hope is the dire financial situation most athletic departments willl be in without football. 

Ive pretty much given up on football happening.  I’m beginning to wonder about basketball. I can see it being delayed until spring. 

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11 hours ago, JoeBlo said:

 

 

Also some of that length of time is because of how we do the research. Usually there is significant time between phases to evaluate and assess. We also usually wait to mass produce vaccines until they are proven.

 

We are slamming the phases back to back, we are mass producing vaccines already that may not work as we wait for the last phase that says it does.

 

The idea we will have a workable and distributed vaccine by New Years is virtually impossible even with the time cut, living dangerously, and doing multiple steps at once, is just not realistic. The earliest we could see mass distribution of the vaccine is mid-spring 2021. Although a may/june window is probably the best we could do. 

 

All the signs currently point towards having at least a flu-vaccine set up that gives us a yearly immunity. Even if it's almost a year from now that would be incredibly fast.  Just one of many reasons we need to be following the best science and not dreaming of cures, 150k dead in what amounts to five months of community spread is another.

It used to take two years at a minimum to map the genome of a virus. This one got done in a month. You seriously discount scientific advances in your negative scenario. We've got multiple vaccines being developed with new technology that have proven safe and effective on small samples.  Just because this project is moving fast, doesn't mean it's doomed.

To be fair, it is destined to be a failure by some folks standards.  No vaccine will eradicate any version of a Coronavirus.  That type of virus mutates too fast.  A vaccine can help control it though, and one attribute of a Coronavirus is that it typically mutates into a less lethal form over time.  I think we'll have a useable vaccine by years end.  Even if it is not the perfect answer, it has the potential to save a lot of lives in the short term while better answers are being realized.  There are tons of new approaches to creating a vaccine and while some labs are fast tracking, others are developing through the tried and true route.  Take what we can get tomorrow, and keep working on next week.

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12 minutes ago, Headbutt said:

It used to take two years at a minimum to map the genome of a virus. This one got done in a month. You seriously discount scientific advances in your negative scenario. 

 

 

One that's two years off of ten and really irrelevant considering we made vaccines long before we had mapping capabilities.

 

Two, trust me that's not negative. Even if we just handed out vaccines one per second that's still 100k hours to get one to every person just in the US with no travel time, or 4k days. Now obviously we can do more than one at a time but to get a handle on the scale this is a useful excercise. Even getting all 11m healthworkers going at once will only lower the time to months.

 

 It's just a matter of logistics, it will take a certain amount of time to distribute even after its perfected and mass produced, which also take time, not all of the steps can be done at the same time. That also is assuming a friendly or the US is the one who develops it and distributes it immediately. If China gets there first, well I'll let you do the math on 1.2 billion doses distributed before we get it.

 

Sorry if you haven't thought through the scale of this, but its facts and it's likely we have some wrong turns to slow it down further.

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4 minutes ago, JoeBlo said:

 

 

One that's two years off of ten and really irrelevant considering we made vaccines long before we had mapping capabilities.

 

Two, trust me that's not negative. Even if we just handed out vaccines one per second that's still 100k hours to get one to every person just in the US with no travel time, or 4k days. Now obviously we can do more than one at a time but to get a handle on the scale this is a useful excercise. Even getting all 11m healthworkers going at once will only lower the time to months.

 

 It's just a matter of logistics, it will take a certain amount of time to distribute even after its perfected and mass produced, which also take time, not all of the steps can be done at the same time. That also is assuming a friendly or the US is the one who develops it and distributes it immediately. If China gets there first, well I'll let you do the math on 1.2 billion doses distributed before we get it.

 

Sorry if you haven't thought through the scale of this, but its facts and it's likely we have some wrong turns to slow it down further.

I'm very aware that there might be some wrong turns.  However, the vaccine, based on phase II results is already in mass production  The assumption that we need to vaccinate everybody is a fallacy.  The symptoms are mild in most of the infected.  The goal is to vaccinate the most at risk and move down from there. 

Like I said, I don't think the vaccine is going to eradicate Covid, and it would be foolish to make that the expected goal.  We can quickly immunize the most at risk.  That really needs to be the short term goal.  We'll be doing that very early in '21.

Why do you want to hand out 1 per second?  Can't we distribute them in the thousands or 100 thousands?

I'm sorry you're unhappy that we're developing a vaccine so fast.  It may not be perfect, but I guarantee that it won't take years.

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1 hour ago, Headbutt said:

I'm very aware that there might be some wrong turns.  However, the vaccine, based on phase II results is already in mass production  The assumption that we need to vaccinate everybody is a fallacy.  The symptoms are mild in most of the infected.  The goal is to vaccinate the most at risk and move down from there. 

Like I said, I don't think the vaccine is going to eradicate Covid, and it would be foolish to make that the expected goal.  We can quickly immunize the most at risk.  That really needs to be the short term goal.  We'll be doing that very early in '21.

Why do you want to hand out 1 per second?  Can't we distribute them in the thousands or 100 thousands?

I'm sorry you're unhappy that we're developing a vaccine so fast.  It may not be perfect, but I guarantee that it won't take years.

 

 

So make up your mind was my mid spring/early summer predictions pessimistic? Or is your mid spring optimistic?

 

Did you just repeat what I said about us mass producing vaccines that aren't proven yet? Then just agree that their could be wrong turns and it may not be fully effective?

 

Are you not smart enough to realize you are agreeing with me?

 

You realize that we are only one country in this world and I pointed out we have 11 million health workers to help give it out faster. You know that the one per second was mostly for the concept of scale logistics to make it easier to understand how hard it will be to distribute, like I said in the post? 

 

Did you attend CSU?

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18 hours ago, 1066 said:

I was watching a PBS show on the virus two days ago and heard something I had not heard before. Two medicos, one from the CDC and another from the Cleveland Clinic, both of which have worked on vaccines, said there had never been a workable vaccine produced and approved in less than 4 years and that the average developed and approved vaccine took just over 10 years. At that rate we as a nation will be in a 1930 style depression and all our sports programs will have been cancelled.

I hope I am wrong but every day the situation seems worse.

Workable is the key word. It takes a long time and a lot of study (meaning money) to develop a vaccine because we regulate what can be approved. The regulations have their heart in the right place, why approve this drug that has adverse effects down the line when there is another in the pipeline that may not. Eventually we get some that do not. It won’t be the case with Covid that those sort of regulations will be as stringent. We will have vaccines soon, not in time to save football or anything like that, but much sooner than we would normally expect them. They likely won’t be flawless from the start, but they will be shown to be effective against the virus.

We’re in for a rough couple of years. Be well and Godspeed.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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22 minutes ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

So what happens when half the folks won’t get vaccinated because they’re just anti-vaxers or they fear reptilian DNA?

 

 

To be effective we need about 70%. 50-60%  keeps it manageable if we do the mask, social distancing etc. 98-99% is required to eliminate it.

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Well we’re not doing a very good job with masks and distancing and nearly half the people say they won’t get the vaccine. So there you go...

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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