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Nevada Convert

Trump Starting To Move Up In the Polls

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2 hours ago, PokeTransplant said:

We love you Rudy.  Never disappoint with your vast knowledge of the political psyche of the American public.

Any news on that wall we were getting?  How about that infrastructure plan?  Healthcare rework?  Tariff deal?  Manufacturing jobs?

willing to go batshit for Relevance - Crazy Rudy Giuliani | Meme ...

WTF?  I can't stand Rudy. 

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14 hours ago, pokerider said:

really?  so you think more total number of people will vote for Biden than Hillary?  I don't see it.  Hillary at least had actual support.  Biden only has "I don't like Trump" support. 

You conflate not liking Trump and running out and voting for Biden as one thing.  They are mutually exclusive things. 

 

Yes Biden is far more likeable than Hillary, especially with white males

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14 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

^^^^ Isn't that a worthless stat?

I'd be more curious to see the battleground states.  and Texas. 

 

No, leads in National polls don't happen in a vacuum. If Biden outperforms Hillary by 3 to 5% nationally, he's going to outperform by a similar margin in most swing states

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8 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

Most people aren’t students of politics and elections, and just don’t know what they’re talking about. Trump could gain back what he lost in June in a matter of a week or two if certain things happen. When Trump’s RCP average was 47.6%, the battleground states were neck and neck with him leading in some. 

Trump is starting to get into the meat of the issues including Biden‘s declaration that he’d ban fracking. Then his campaign kind of walked that back a bit and said no new fracking. A complete ban on fracking would cost 15 million jobs in which a large % is in battleground states. Whoops, Uncle Joe. But Joe stated he wanted it banned, and Trump can say that he will but reversed course just a little to win the election. Then he’d ban it. Joe talks out of both sides of his mouth. He tells the lefty’s he’s in on the new green deal and then tells others he won’t totally ban it. 

Bush was behind just as much until the debates. Then it was a landslide. 

The Masters 5k road race All American.

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8 minutes ago, sebasour said:

I can never seem to get a straight answer from Trumpers on this. @Nevada Convert @Bob @soupslam @pokerider 

 

What is the % chance that Trump wins? Or if this was a football game, what do you think the point spread should be?

 

 

Well up to a week ago despite being down big in the polls most people thought Trump was going to win in November. You could probably google. 

The Masters 5k road race All American.

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5 minutes ago, robe said:

Well up to a week ago despite being down big in the polls most people thought Trump was going to win in November. You could probably google. 

 

What do you think his chances are?

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6 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

Phony activist polling result is what it is.

 

Definitely. It’s smart to assign bias to things that challenge your view. 

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15 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

^^^^ Isn't that a worthless stat?

I'd be more curious to see the battleground states.  and Texas. 

Trump lost ground in the electoral map.  And Texas is pretty much a dead heat - that alone is a red flag.

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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1 hour ago, robe said:

Bush was behind just as much until the debates. Then it was a landslide. 

Which one?  Bush II never won in a landslide, Bush I was leading in the polls well before the debates.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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17 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

I use the RCP average which includes all of the best pollsters, unlike the POS left wing manipulated 538. Trump was recently down to 41.1 and getting 3 or 4 pollsters having him in the upper 30's. Now everything is in the 40's and he's inched up to 43 now. I think the drug pricing executive order helped, as well as a few other things. Will it continue to creep up? This is an absolute turning point in the race. Trump needs to get up another 2 to 3 points with momentum which will force Biden out of his basement and out on the campaign trail which will put his fragile physical and mental condition on full display which will hurt him. Then going into the debates from there, and Trump really could pull ahead. It's not likely, but it could happen.  

Translation: "I use the data that echos what I want to hear, not the more centrist data with a better track record of factual reporting"

 

RCP.png

538.png

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2 minutes ago, Bob said:

It’s 50 - 50

When I look at the polls I throw out the ones that sample registered voters, they are useless at this point.  The polls that sample likely voters are more accurate, and much closer. At this point I would give Trump a 35% shot at winning a second term. 

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1 hour ago, sebasour said:

 

What do you think his chances are?

I'd say right now the line should be Trump -2.5. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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Just now, sebasour said:

 

 

Care to explain why?

Sure.

First, the media is going to start to get bored/ in need of ratings so they're going to manufacture stuff so it isn't just the same Biden winning story. There's going to be Biden gaffes, the Tara Reid story will explode again, Trump will be discussed more favorably... just to get a ratings boost.

Secondly, it's early, and the race will likely tighten up. 

Thirdly, it isn't a popular vote. The election hinges on 3-8 states, many of which with Republican legislatures/governors. They are currently closing polling places; this is going to be the most difficult election to vote in in history, I believe, and the burden to vote will absolutely be placed in a partisan fashion. 

Fourth, we're going to have an eviction crisis in about.... 40 days. Tens of millions of people are going to be homeless and guess what? You can't vote without an address. 

Fifth, we're going to have an evictions and people are going to run out of aid. I would not be shocked to see bread riots in a couple months. Riots against federal police tear gassing moms is one thing; fear of the homeless mob, even if that homeless mob is just full of "my HVAC guy from 3 months ago". That's going to drastically change the dynamic.

Sixth, Biden has the lead because he's been silent and isn't Trump. Any time he has to talk, he's less popular and more like Trump. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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13 hours ago, Naggsty Butler said:

@madmartigan you have a massive penis, your thoughts?

I think if the Dems had put up a halfway decent candidate Trump would get his small penis smashed in in 2020. I think it will be a close election. 

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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15 minutes ago, happycamper said:

Sure.

First, the media is going to start to get bored/ in need of ratings so they're going to manufacture stuff so it isn't just the same Biden winning story. There's going to be Biden gaffes, the Tara Reid story will explode again...

The chick from 'American Pie'?

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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17 minutes ago, happycamper said:

 

Fourth, we're going to have an eviction crisis in about.... 40 days. Tens of millions of people are going to be homeless and guess what? You can't vote without an address. 

 

yes, you can.  In all 50 states.

 

https://www.nonprofitvote.org/voting-in-your-state/special-circumstances/voting-and-homelessness/

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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27 minutes ago, happycamper said:

Sure.

First, the media is going to start to get bored/ in need of ratings so they're going to manufacture stuff so it isn't just the same Biden winning story. There's going to be Biden gaffes, the Tara Reid story will explode again, Trump will be discussed more favorably... just to get a ratings boost.

Secondly, it's early, and the race will likely tighten up. 

Thirdly, it isn't a popular vote. The election hinges on 3-8 states, many of which with Republican legislatures/governors. They are currently closing polling places; this is going to be the most difficult election to vote in in history, I believe, and the burden to vote will absolutely be placed in a partisan fashion. 

Fourth, we're going to have an eviction crisis in about.... 40 days. Tens of millions of people are going to be homeless and guess what? You can't vote without an address. 

Fifth, we're going to have an evictions and people are going to run out of aid. I would not be shocked to see bread riots in a couple months. Riots against federal police tear gassing moms is one thing; fear of the homeless mob, even if that homeless mob is just full of "my HVAC guy from 3 months ago". That's going to drastically change the dynamic.

Sixth, Biden has the lead because he's been silent and isn't Trump. Any time he has to talk, he's less popular and more like Trump. 

 

1. They have a global pandemic to talk about, which should keep them busy. I also don't see why many networks would change their tune at all? Did they start covering Trump more favorably closer to the election 4 years ago? Also I think you're greatly over rating the power of cable news in a modern election

2. I semi agree that Trump will close the margin somewhat, but you pointed out an impending crisis and I don't see why that will help Trump.

3. Interesting point and a fair concern, though didn't many of those states have red legislatures 4 years ago? I'd be curious to see how accessible voting will be this time compared to 4 years ago.

4. I imagine there'll be some government aid coming by then, but on top of that, Homeless people can vote. You can put a shelter, park bench or street corner as your address. Now some states do require an actual mailing address, but you an still use a shelter or a family members home. On top of that most of these people will have already been registered.

5. Those angry homeless people might be motivated to vote, and they probably won't be thrilled with the current POTUS

6. That has helped Biden, but it's a strategy that seems to be working and I'll point out he was still pretty consistently beating Trump while in the midst of a primary (though by not as big of a margin)

 

With a plummeting economy, consistently shit approval ratings, and a historic polling edge that Biden has (which you're really downplaying), it seems insane to consider Trump a favorite. I think Trump has semi plausible chance, but being the favorite?

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