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Nevada Convert

Trump Starting To Move Up In the Polls

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I use the RCP average which includes all of the best pollsters, unlike the POS left wing manipulated 538. Trump was recently down to 41.1 and getting 3 or 4 pollsters having him in the upper 30's. Now everything is in the 40's and he's inched up to 43 now. I think the drug pricing executive order helped, as well as a few other things. Will it continue to creep up? This is an absolute turning point in the race. Trump needs to get up another 2 to 3 points with momentum which will force Biden out of his basement and out on the campaign trail which will put his fragile physical and mental condition on full display which will hurt him. Then going into the debates from there, and Trump really could pull ahead. It's not likely, but it could happen.  

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I think it is highly unlikely Trump wins re-election at this point.  I think there will be two interesting things to watch and see how it impacts the poll numbers: 1) what happens with Covid numbers 2) Biden running to the left instead of the center.  Overall, I think Trump has stuck his foot in his mouth just too many times (and there are still 4 months left to go!).

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28 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

I think it is highly unlikely Trump wins re-election at this point.  I think there will be two interesting things to watch and see how it impacts the poll numbers: 1) what happens with Covid numbers 2) Biden running to the left instead of the center.  Overall, I think Trump has stuck his foot in his mouth just too many times (and there are still 4 months left to go!).

I do not think its unlikely at all that Trump can still win.  Many people don't really like Trump no doubt, but I also don't see a lot of people lining up to go vote for Biden either.  

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Just now, pokerider said:

I do not think its unlikely at all that Trump can still win.  Many people don't really like Trump no doubt, but I also don't see a lot of people lining up to go vote for Biden either.  

Remember, even Hillary got 3 million more votes than Trump.

Biden is definitely more popular than HC and many more will be lining up to vote against Trump.

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1 minute ago, renoskier said:

Remember, even Hillary got 3 million more votes than Trump.

Biden is definitely more popular than HC and many more will be lining up to vote against Trump.

really?  so you think more total number of people will vote for Biden than Hillary?  I don't see it.  Hillary at least had actual support.  Biden only has "I don't like Trump" support. 

You conflate not liking Trump and running out and voting for Biden as one thing.  They are mutually exclusive things. 

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41 minutes ago, retrofade said:

TtRAM2i.png

You have this weird fetish with being attracted to garbage. That’s what happens when you mix activism and poll results. Duh. 😂😂😂😂😂👍 

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11 minutes ago, renoskier said:

Remember, even Hillary got 3 million more votes than Trump.

Biden is definitely more popular than HC and many more will be lining up to vote against Trump.

Your analysis is way flawed. I saw a poll yesterday and voters being excited to vote for Trump was 45% and Biden was only at about 30%. You have pissed off Bernie supporters, around 20 to 25%, that say they won’t ever vote for Biden, and then you have at least 3% of Trump supporters that aren’t answering polls. Biden’s VP list is chock full of disasters that will hurt him. 

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1 hour ago, Nevada Convert said:

Now everything is in the 40's and he's inched up to 43 now.

You have a link? I'm still seeing 41.7.

image.png.a880c5751a761e783d129c7a5606b21f.png

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23 minutes ago, Nevada Convert said:

Your analysis is way flawed. I saw a poll yesterday and voters being excited to vote for Trump was 45% and Biden was only at about 30%. You have pissed off Bernie supporters, around 20 to 25%, that say they won’t ever vote for Biden, and then you have at least 3% of Trump supporters that aren’t answering polls. Biden’s VP list is chock full of disasters that will hurt him. 

No one knows what is going to happen.   This whole thing is all over the map.

Biden is currently benefiting from hiding in his basement, and avoiding any tough media.   But he won't be able to do that at the 3 debates.   The debates could prove huge in this election.   Depends on how Trump performs.

Plus, don't discount College Football starting for people to start feeling better about things (could help Trump).

Finally, the total approval rating is a stupid statistic----We already know the outcome of a state like California.  Its the 10 battle ground states that matter. 

That said, Biden is clearly the frontrunner right now.

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2 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

You have a link? I'm still seeing 41.7.

image.png.a880c5751a761e783d129c7a5606b21f.png

^^^^ Isn't that a worthless stat?

I'd be more curious to see the battleground states.  and Texas. 

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Just now, #1Stunner said:

^^^^ Isn't that a worthless stat?

I'd be more curious to see the battleground states.  and Texas. 

Those are all clearly activist liberal polls because they show Biden leading.

image.png.8dc218bf4c7355d0750c3e3dfc18381e.png

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4 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

You have a link? I'm still seeing 41.7.

image.png.a880c5751a761e783d129c7a5606b21f.png

It’s obviously not a perfect measure of how Trump is doing, but I’ve always used the job approval number for two reasons. 1. There’s a long history to compare it to. 2. The Dem vs. GOP polls over sample Dems, and supposedly a decent amount of Trump supporters don’t answer these polls. 

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Just now, Nevada Convert said:

It’s obviously not a perfect measure of how Trump is doing, but I’ve always used the job approval number for two reasons. 1. There’s a long history to compare it to. 2. The Dem vs. GOP polls over sample Dems, and supposedly a decent amount of Trump supporters don’t answer these polls. 

Alright...here's that.

image.png.a71359e0e02defd7ec45541c8355d0c2.png

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1 hour ago, retrofade said:

TtRAM2i.png

Fake news

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5 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Alright...here's that.

image.png.a71359e0e02defd7ec45541c8355d0c2.png

Fake news

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For Comparison - Obama's lowest 1st term approval rating was 42.1 in October of 2011.  At this point in 2012 it was 47.5.  By election day - right around 50%. He received 51% of the popular vote.

Also - Clinton was up on Trump by similar margins at this point in 2016 in swing states.  So I wouldn't count out Trump's ability to win re-election just yet.

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50 minutes ago, pokerider said:

really?  so you think more total number of people will vote for Biden than Hillary?  I don't see it.  Hillary at least had actual support.  Biden only has "I don't like Trump" support. 

You conflate not liking Trump and running out and voting for Biden as one thing.  They are mutually exclusive things. 

He’s right. Biden is far more liked among Dem voters. Even a lot of Dems had grown tired of the Clintons, even before 2016.

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26 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

^^^^ Isn't that a worthless stat?

I'd be more curious to see the battleground states.  and Texas. 

 

26 minutes ago, #1Stunner said:

No one knows what is going to happen.   This whole thing is all over the map.

Biden is currently benefiting from hiding in his basement, and avoiding any tough media.   But he won't be able to do that at the 3 debates.   The debates could prove huge in this election.   Depends on how Trump performs.

Plus, don't discount College Football starting for people to start feeling better about things (could help Trump).

Finally, the total approval rating is a stupid statistic----We already know the outcome of a state like California.  Its the 10 battle ground states that matter. 

That said, Biden is clearly the frontrunner right now.

Biden won’t debate. His campaign staff is already putting stipulations on it. Like football season, it’s not going to happen. 

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