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Question for Convert re: poll numbers

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1 hour ago, AndroidAggie said:

trump will win again

the reason he was elected the first time hasn't changed and it's been, what, 24 years since we've had a one term president?

Well he's running against a significantly more popular opponent 

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28 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

Not sure you are paying attention 

paying tons of attention.  i'm many things, but oblivious to the obvious isn't one of them.

people still love trump.  just look at all the memes and twitters and social media posts you just shared.  i think the majority of americans still side with trump on this stuff.

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1 minute ago, sebasour said:

Well he's running against a significantly more popular opponent 

true. but biden is hardly a lightning rod for people who might be on the fence.

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1 minute ago, AndroidAggie said:

paying tons of attention.  i'm many things, but oblivious to the obvious isn't one of them.

people still love trump.  just look at all the memes and twitters and social media posts you just shared.  i think the majority of americans still side with trump on this stuff.

Yeah........you aren't paying attention 

Those posts are just examples of the right wing bubble 

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Just now, UNLV2001 said:

Yeah........you aren't paying attention 

Those posts are just examples of the right wing bubble 

if you say so.

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1 hour ago, AndroidAggie said:

trump will win again

the reason he was elected the first time hasn't changed and it's been, what, 24 years since we've had a one term president?

What reason is that? And if he hasn't done anything about it in 4 years why elect him again to not change it?

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2 minutes ago, tspoke said:

What reason is that? And if he hasn't done anything about it in 4 years why elect him again to not change it?

because he owns the libs.  the ones that voted him in like how he's cruel and un PC.  (whatever THAT means...)

they like HIM.  not his policies.

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Just now, AndroidAggie said:

because he owns the libs.  the ones that voted him in like how he's cruel and un PC.  (whatever THAT means...)

they like HIM.  not his policies.

Gotcha... I agree to a point.... That his supporters love that but that's not all who voted for him in 2016. There were a not insignificant of independents and others who didn't like Hilary and thought why not try something new. I don't think they are sticking around for the most part. He's losing the suburbs which he carried in 2016.Trump only won by (I forget the actual numbers so this is a guess) 50k-ish votes over several states. That's a pretty thin line. 

But yeah his supports only care about owning the libs. 

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1 minute ago, tspoke said:

Gotcha... I agree to a point.... That his supporters love that but that's not all who voted for him in 2016. There were a not insignificant of independents and others who didn't like Hilary and thought why not try something new. I don't think they are sticking around for the most part. He's losing the suburbs which he carried in 2016.Trump only won by (I forget the actual numbers so this is a guess) 50k-ish votes over several states. That's a pretty thin line. 

But yeah his supports only care about owning the libs. 

i hope to high heaven you are correct

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7 minutes ago, AndroidAggie said:

i hope to high heaven you are correct

And just to be clear, that isn't a prediction of November yet. Just an observation how I see things currently. Still a long ways to go. 

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11 minutes ago, tspoke said:

And just to be clear, that isn't a prediction of November yet. Just an observation how I see things currently. Still a long ways to go. 

yeah, same.  a lot can happen between now and november.

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15 minutes ago, tspoke said:

Gotcha... I agree to a point.... That his supporters love that but that's not all who voted for him in 2016. There were a not insignificant of independents and others who didn't like Hilary and thought why not try something new. I don't think they are sticking around for the most part. He's losing the suburbs which he carried in 2016.Trump only won by (I forget the actual numbers so this is a guess) 50k-ish votes over several states. That's a pretty thin line. 

But yeah his supports only care about owning the libs. 

I'm of the opinion that a lot of independent voters that went for trump in will go Biden in 2020 - After 4 years of an endless circus & clown show, there is no doubt left for any "How bad can he be?"  type of thinking - It's known now that trump is an incompetent clown and worse than most would have guessed.

trump lost by a small number of votes over three states, so theoretically it shouldn't take much votes to flip & turn the election against trump and trumps unfavorable numbers are record setting low for an incumbent seeking reelection 

Still a long 4 full months (july to October) to go, but if these numbers we are seeing and seeing consistently over the last two months hold up, trump could get crushed in November ........I still am certain trump will lose the overall vote by a bigger margin than he lost in 2016, but as always it come down to state electoral votes & that's where trump has little margin to lose 

As it stand as of July 1, I only see the blind followers of Cult 45 being in his pocket everyone else is trending away from trump 

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50 minutes ago, AndroidAggie said:

true. but biden is hardly a lightning rod for people who might be on the fence.

Biden may not be a lightning rod, but Trump is making himself more and more of a repellent for those on the fence. Definitely more so than in 2016 when he had the benefit of the doubt where many people who weren't necessarily pro-Hillary could at least in good faith say "Trump really can't be THAT bad, can he?" Now there's no doubt that he is.

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6 minutes ago, Aztecmg said:

Biden may not be a lightning rod, but Trump is making himself more and more of a repellent for those on the fence. Definitely more so than in 2016 when he had the benefit of the doubt where many people who weren't necessarily pro-Hillary could at least in good faith say "Trump really can't be THAT bad, can he?" Now there's no doubt that he is.

And the odd thing about the trump campaign is that there is no effort to bridge any gap between his loony base & everyone else ........trump just keep pounding the same drum that really only appeals to his base 

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1 minute ago, UNLV2001 said:

And the odd thing about the trump campaign is that there is no effort to bridge any gap between his loony base & everyone else ........trump just keep pounding the same drum that really only appeals to his base 

Yeah, it's a little strange. It seems like Trump is continuing to focus on preaching to his choir. The rhetoric he continues to put out seems pretty targeted to voters he really  has no risk of losing at this point. The inadvertent consequence is that that rhetoric, imo at least, seems to be pushing those on the fence to the opposite side. 

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2 minutes ago, Aztecmg said:

Yeah, it's a little strange. It seems like Trump is continuing to focus on preaching to his choir. The rhetoric he continues to put out seems pretty targeted to voters he really  has no risk of losing at this point. The inadvertent consequence is that that rhetoric, imo at least, seems to be pushing those on the fence to the opposite side. 

Exactly - He's only appealing to his hard cores and offering nothing to anyone on the fence 

For a campaign with such a narrow margin for error, I don't get this strategy, unless it's just trump ignoring reality, which isn't out of the question 

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Trump won the election because women hate each other for some reason. And he also won because Hillary was disdained by independent voters. I don’t think either of those things are going to fly this time around. He still has his base, even though most are still dealing with the issues they dealt with when Obama was el presidente. Trump fatigue is real.

But I’m sure Trump will make the election a chit show, claiming corruption with no proof, and making it as hard to vote as he can. 

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7 hours ago, AndroidAggie said:

trump will win again

the reason he was elected the first time hasn't changed and it's been, what, 24 years since we've had a one term president?

Sounds like we’re due.

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6 hours ago, AndroidAggie said:

true. but biden is hardly a lightning rod for people who might be on the fence.

 

At this point 4 years ago Gary Johnson was polling at 8% and 12% were undecided. Most polls now only have about 7% undecided with little to no 3rd party support. 

Fence sitters in 2016 seem a lot more decisive this time around. He doesn't need to massively outperform Hillary either, he only needs to do a couple points better

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16 hours ago, smltwnrckr said:

Im not sure the touchdown dance is such a good idea right now.

I’m normally pretty even minded and don’t react to the 3 to 4 game losses in a row and scream the season is over like everyone else. I look at everything like a bookee. I want reality and predictability. I honestly think there’s something different with him. Now fvck all the trump jokes, I see it, and I’ve watched his MO so closely for so long, he is actually very predictable if you know what you’re looking at and avoid the ‘noise’ that you think is important when it’s not......just distractions.

The problem it’s the thing he uses to get out of his self inflicted slumps. It’s missing and there’s something wrong with him in that way, and I’ve never seen it before. Does that mean it’s over? This is so weird for him to deviate like this and not get back on course.....I want to say yes, it is. But I won’t go there yet.
 

I know that Ford was ahead of Carter by about 30 points sometime around now back in 76 and I know about how far down Clinton was to senior Bush, etc. etc. However, you don’t need to convince me that impossible can’t happen, look at Trump. So these all scenarios aren’t impressive.

Show me 3 presidential debates, a VP announced, a VP debate (crazy important this time) and a couple other things, then I’ll let you know. 

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