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thedude15

If college football goes "business as usual" and ignores COVID a total of 4-16 players would end up in the hospital

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2 hours ago, thedude15 said:

Another point is college athletes (and most young adults) are not just gonna sit at home and wait for a vaccine. Even if they don't play sports they are still going to be out and about. I mean what 30% of Clemson's football team has already had or has the virus. That is way higher than the 10% estimate of the general population that has already had it.   

Quite true,  the college age group will contract COVID-19 at a much faster rate than the overall average.

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3 hours ago, thedude15 said:

Best case 30-40% of the USA gets the virus (we have already passed 10% per CDC) then we get a vaccine. Worse case there is no effective vaccine and 70% plus of the USA gets it and we get natural herd immunity. 

Also I strongly doubt healthy 17-24 yo who know they are low risk are going to isolate until a potential vaccine. The young folk are going to get this at a lot higher rate (when this is all said and done) that other age groups. In other words the vast majority of college athletes (and college age students) will get this with or without football being played.  

Herd immunity is several years away without a vaccine, if it is even possible,  It is an RNA virus and they can mutate quickly.  We already see evidence that the virus mutation in the US is far more contagious then the mutation that hit china

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Focusing purely on the players - you ever notice these guys on the sideline sucking oxygen. These are young, prime beefathletes. This shit +++++s up your oxygenation. Their play could be dangerously affected simply because they arent able to absorb enough oxygen. So simply porting over age-based statistics wont fly. These guys are pushing their bodies to the limit under normal circumstances. Now their limits will be drastically reduced, but theyre going to push to the original limit. 

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I like how everyone acts like if there are no sports athletes will be at zero risk and if there are sports athletes will just get sick or die

 

 

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1 hour ago, Billings said:

Europe was far more successful in slowing the spread of disease,  Their cases are declining while ours are climbing steeply.  I also believe that there is a difference between professional and college level athlete and the risks we ask them to take.

There is a reason for that. The United States major population hubs are much more spread out thru out the country then most European countries. Every major population area in the world will get hit hard, it’s just a matter of time. It’s now Florida, Texas and California’s time.

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1 hour ago, Warbow said:

There is a reason for that. The United States major population hubs are much more spread out thru out the country then most European countries. Every major population area in the world will get hit hard, it’s just a matter of time. It’s now Florida, Texas and California’s time.

Hmm japan and taiwan major cities have avoided any major hit. They dont see one coming if they are careful and are waiting a vaccine without a major disruption.

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4 hours ago, Billings said:

Europe was far more successful in slowing the spread of disease,  Their cases are declining while ours are climbing steeply.  I also believe that there is a difference between professional and college level athlete and the risks we ask them to take.

a few MLB players have opted out for the 2020 season, I suspect we'll see more.

If you've played enough baseball and have acquired enough money to live comfortably, I'm not sure I'd take the risk?

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8 hours ago, madeinhawaii said:

They looked at a study of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients from a cruise ship. CAT scans showed they had lung damage even without experiencing symptoms. You can't play football or any other high level sports  if you have damaged lungs. 

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/covid-19-damages-lungs-of-asymptomatic-and-most-severe-patients-alike-medical-examiner-says?fbclid=IwAR2Zs-tgtX2Jt5tHwIcpxlur2reF4TLys7Rh5oPQweyQDS3vroGiCSAM-CQ

More than likely being a cruise ship most of the passengers were older. Not everyone suffers lung damage. I’ve seen some articles that say the number is less than 20% and mostly older people although it can also damage younger lungs. It’s still too early to know the full extent of lung damage. 

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I really thought this crap would have subsided by now but things are not improving in half the country.   There's definitely an increasing chance of no football this fall.  :frustrated:

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If college football shuts down and puts everything off till next year, 4-16 players will probably end up in the hospital. 
 

Just sayin’. 

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3 hours ago, Headbutt said:

If college football shuts down and puts everything off till next year, 4-16 players will probably end up in the hospital. 
 

Just sayin’. 

I just don't see football being played this year, schools will not only have to consider the health concerns, but I think there will also be liability issues that are going to end up front and center.

As for a vaccine, with the way this thing has the ability to mutate, it might be years before we see an effective one. HIV is still waiting, and that's been since the early 80s. although with recent findings, it could happen relatively quickly. who knows..

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6 minutes ago, 4UNLV said:

I just don't see football being played this year, schools will not only have to consider the health concerns, but I think there will also be liability issues that are going to end up front and center.

As for a vaccine, with the way this thing has the ability to mutate, it might be years before we see an effective one. HIV is still waiting, and that's been since the early 80s. although with recent findings, it could happen relatively quickly. who knows..

Bingo!  Liability is the boogeyman in all of this.  There's no reason not to play the game, except for nervous lawyers making AD's nervous.  I'm not a fan of putting players at risk just to get my football fix, but I don't honestly believe that taking the field adds any element of risk.  However, if I'm an AD, they're signing a release before they put one foot on the field.  I wonder how many want to sign that release?

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2 hours ago, 4UNLV said:

I just don't see football being played this year, schools will not only have to consider the health concerns, but I think there will also be liability issues that are going to end up front and center.

As for a vaccine, with the way this thing has the ability to mutate, it might be years before we see an effective one. HIV is still waiting, and that's been since the early 80s. although with recent findings, it could happen relatively quickly. who knows..

HIV is not really comparable to COVID

-they have medications that suppress HIV enough that you can basically go about a completely normal life with HIV. They don't have meds that basically cure COVID.

-an estimated 1.1 mil people in USA have HIV. And mind you only 38k got NEW infections in 2018.  There is already an estimated 20 + mil that have or had COVID within a six month period. Not saying it is right BUT it is true far more effort will be made to get a vaccine that equals a lot more $$$ (ie an effective vaccine will have demand for billions of dosages). HIV can basically be eliminated with education/testing. The reason it is still spreading is 1/7 people who have HIV don't know they have. If that number gets to zero HIV can basically be eliminated (ie every gets on meds and suppressed the viral load and stop passing the virus).  Even if there was an HIV vaccine it would likely only be giving to high risk groups at this time (doubt it will become a "standard" vaccine for all children/adults). 

Mind you I am not making light of HIV. If would be wonderful to have an HIV vaccine and get that number of new infections a year down to zero. Also there is obviously a risk in chronically taking medications (ie side effects, needing to make lifestyle changes-in some cases no drinking-). I mean some people will be on HIV medications for 50+ years. 

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2 hours ago, Headbutt said:

Bingo!  Liability is the boogeyman in all of this.  There's no reason not to play the game, except for nervous lawyers making AD's nervous.  I'm not a fan of putting players at risk just to get my football fix, but I don't honestly believe that taking the field adds any element of risk.  However, if I'm an AD, they're signing a release before they put one foot on the field.  I wonder how many want to sign that release?

Not really sure I buy the liability. Many campuses are still having a small percent of students (which is still a wayyyyyy higher number than the number of football players) on campus (mostly for classes that can only be taught in person). Guessing those students with have to sign some sort of waiver. I highly doubt that any student those choses to attend an in person class would be able to then sue the school if they get COVID. They have the option to sit out a semester or two if they want. Just as a football player (at least in my plan) would have the option of not playing this season. 

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On 6/29/2020 at 10:29 AM, Del Scorcho said:

always had trouble with that one.

I laughed because I often check before posting. 

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On 6/29/2020 at 8:18 PM, Del Scorcho said:

a few MLB players have opted out for the 2020 season, I suspect we'll see more.

If you've played enough baseball and have acquired enough money to live comfortably, I'm not sure I'd take the risk?

If good protocols are put in place,  I really wonder if playing baseball would be much riskier than not playing. Even the 30 somethings aren't going to just stay home. 

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On 6/29/2020 at 11:04 AM, OrediggerPoke said:

 (1) You are assuming that past COVID infections rates over the prior 4 months will equal that of the 4 month college football season which is exceedingly unlikely to be true; (2) You are assuming that football players who are in close contact with their teammates and opposing players would have the same infection rate as any other 18-29 year old;

-No I did not. I gave a range. My top estimated equals a FOUR times increase in infection rate compared to the current infection rate. Does you expect football players to be 10x, 40x, 100x more at risk that the general population of that age group?  I think 4x is a fair number. 

(3) You are assuming a football player who is larger than the average 18-29 year old would not be at increased risk of complications; etc..

Yes I am assuming a 18-23 year old in peak shape would be at a lower risk of complication that the average 18-29 year old. The average 18-29 is in far worse psychical  condition... And yes I know some OL and DL weigh a lot (which is not help re COVID) but there are also many 18-29 years olds that are obese and NOT in shape at all. 20% of 12-19 yo are obese, 40% of adults over 20 are obese. Mind you these are people that are significantly overweight (for a 5' 8'' males obesity means being 40lbs overweight). And those OL/DL are in much better physical shape that the general population obese individuals. 

 

 

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On 6/29/2020 at 1:18 PM, madeinhawaii said:

They looked at a study of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients from a cruise ship. CAT scans showed they had lung damage even without experiencing symptoms. You can't play football or any other high level sports  if you have damaged lungs. 

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/covid-19-damages-lungs-of-asymptomatic-and-most-severe-patients-alike-medical-examiner-says?fbclid=IwAR2Zs-tgtX2Jt5tHwIcpxlur2reF4TLys7Rh5oPQweyQDS3vroGiCSAM-CQ

So a bunch of 70-90 year olds got lung damage and that means 18-24 yo will also? That is not how it works... Just cause heart disease is the number one cause of death in the USA doesn't mean a bunch of 18-24 yo will have heart attacks...

Also keep in mind lung damage typical occurs in SEVERE cases. Thus the only people that would really even be at risk of lung damage are the very small few that need to go to the hospital plus in many cases the damage is reversible. 

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15 minutes ago, renoskier said:

If good protocols are put in place,  I really wonder if playing baseball would be much riskier than not playing. Even the 30 somethings aren't going to just stay home. 

Yeah I am a 30 something that is not just gonna stay home. The vast majority of 30 somethings (unless they have major pre existing conditions)  aren't just going to stay home. I mean I am willing to make some changes (like wearing a mask, not going on a cruise) but I will not just sit at home. It is far my likely I did of a car crash over the next year than of COVID. If I do get the short straw and have a terrible case of COVID well that is just life and crap happens. You have to look at probabilities and base your life off of that, not fear.  

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7 hours ago, thedude15 said:

HIV is not really comparable to COVID

-they have medications that suppress HIV enough that you can basically go about a completely normal life with HIV. They don't have meds that basically cure COVID.

-an estimated 1.1 mil people in USA have HIV. And mind you only 38k got NEW infections in 2018.  There is already an estimated 20 + mil that have or had COVID within a six month period. Not saying it is right BUT it is true far more effort will be made to get a vaccine that equals a lot more $$$ (ie an effective vaccine will have demand for billions of dosages). HIV can basically be eliminated with education/testing. The reason it is still spreading is 1/7 people who have HIV don't know they have. If that number gets to zero HIV can basically be eliminated (ie every gets on meds and suppressed the viral load and stop passing the virus).  Even if there was an HIV vaccine it would likely only be giving to high risk groups at this time (doubt it will become a "standard" vaccine for all children/adults). 

Mind you I am not making light of HIV. If would be wonderful to have an HIV vaccine and get that number of new infections a year down to zero. Also there is obviously a risk in chronically taking medications (ie side effects, needing to make lifestyle changes-in some cases no drinking-). I mean some people will be on HIV medications for 50+ years. 

but you get the point, right? HIV is where it is because of decades of research and experimental tx to start with. we're talking about fall camps starting (or not) in one month. I hope we have football, I just think the admins are going to think long and hard about it.

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