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thedude15

If college football goes "business as usual" and ignores COVID a total of 4-16 players would end up in the hospital

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Over a 4 month period (3/1 to 6/20) CDC says the hospitalization rate for 18-29 was 32.1 per 100,000 of population. 4 months is about the same time as a football season so we can translate those number to college football. There are roughly 12,500 D1 college football players. So if they are at the same risk of acquiring COVID as an "average" 18-29 yo you would expect 4 players to get sick enough to actually go to the hospital over the course of a football season. I do expect that number to creep up a bit because 18-29 yo (in general not just college football players) are more likely to go about their life and get tired of all the restriction than say a 65 yo with multiple medical conditions. Thus there will be more cases of COVID in that group which will lead to a higher high hospitalization per 100,000. But even it the rate jumps FOUR times higher (it will increase but it wont go that high) that still means you would expect 16 players to get sick enough to go to the hospital. And statistically speaking it is very probable that none of those 4-16 cases would die. For perspective over an average 4 month period using the all cause mortality rate you would expect 2 people out of 12,500 to die in this age group.  

You really have to look at the actual numbers when deciding how to approach the season. You can't just decide based off of fear.

My proposal 

-Let any player that wishes to sit out the season sit it out. They still get their full scholarship and can have a COVID redshirt year. 

-Just have the rest of the players go full steam ahead. If you test positive you have the option to quarantine or you can continue to  play/practice. You would be required to wear a mask and have your own COVID tent at practice/games (ie so you are not congregating with other players when you are not on the field also give you a safe area to drink as that obviously can't be done with a mask on). 

-Coaches wear mask and are given the option to telework if they want to. Even though it won't be as effective you could definitely coach practices via zoom. During the game most coaches could go in the press box and you could have a select few on the field.

-Refs/other personnel can wear mask during gameday  

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24 minutes ago, thedude15 said:

If you test positive you have the option to quarantine or you can continue to  play/practice.

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In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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Just now, RSF said:

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No I am not. This risk is very minimal for this age group. Many positive test equal asymptomatic cases. Wearing a mask significantly reduces the risk of spread. Being outdoors reduces the risk. Not having prolonged contact reduces the risk. Wearing a mask and only being on the field/around other players when playing greatly reduces the risk of transmitting the disease. 

 

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47 minutes ago, thedude15 said:

No I am not. This risk is very minimal for this age group. Many positive test equal asymptomatic cases. Wearing a mask significantly reduces the risk of spread. Being outdoors reduces the risk. Not having prolonged contact reduces the risk. Wearing a mask and only being on the field/around other players when playing greatly reduces the risk of transmitting the disease. 

 

except, we really don't know the long term affects of this yet

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4 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

I have been on board with just moving it to the springs for months. If we are lucky we will have a vaccine late 20 early 21 (ie players could likely get it in Jan or Feb of next year) and even if we don't get a vaccine the dx would have run through more people by then. I mean the "guess" is it has infected 10% of the USA population already. If we give it another 4-6 months that could be up to 30% of so. That will get use closer to herd immunity and improve the chance a spring season could be played. 

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4 hours ago, thedude15 said:

Over a 4 month period (3/1 to 6/20) CDC says the hospitalization rate for 18-29 was 32.1 per 100,000 of population. 4 months is about the same time as a football season so we can translate those number to college football. There are roughly 12,500 D1 college football players. So if they are at the same risk of acquiring COVID as an "average" 18-29 yo you would expect 4 players to get sick enough to actually go to the hospital over the course of a football season. I do expect that number to creep up a bit because 18-29 yo (in general not just college football players) are more likely to go about their life and get tired of all the restriction than say a 65 yo with multiple medical conditions. Thus there will be more cases of COVID in that group which will lead to a higher high hospitalization per 100,000. But even it the rate jumps FOUR times higher (it will increase but it wont go that high) that still means you would expect 16 players to get sick enough to go to the hospital. And statistically speaking it is very probable that none of those 4-16 cases would die. For perspective over an average 4 month period using the all cause mortality rate you would expect 2 people out of 12,500 to die in this age group.  

 

Your math is based on a lot of faulty assumptions. (1) You are assuming that past COVID infections rates over the prior 4 months will equal that of the 4 month college football season which is exceedingly unlikely to be true; (2) You are assuming that football players who are in close contact with their teammates and opposing players would have the same infection rate as any other 18-29 year old; (3) You are assuming a football player who is larger than the average 18-29 year old would not be at increased risk of complications; etc..

That said - I've always been a firm believer that people should be able to weigh the risks for themselves and make their own decisions.  I too am in the camp that the more the younger people are able to get through COVID and build immunity the quicker the economy can recover and people can get back to life (although I acknowledge this belief is also based on assumption). 

To me and similarly to your suggestion - every college athlete should be provided the latest information and should be given the opportunity to make their own decisions whether to participate this year without fear of scholarship or coach reprisal.  If it were me, it is a really easy answer of I am willing to take the risk and look forward to playing.  But I understand the person that might say look - I am at increased risk due to my weight/other conditions and I have quite a bit of family responsibility to care for a parent/grandparent/child/etc..

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Point isnt the players. Its everyone else thats affected by bringing these people together, ranging from their families to the fans. If sports happen, measures need to be in place to protect everyone else

San Jose State
Announced: 85,235
Scanned: 33,892
Percentage: 39.8%
Actual Attendance Per Game: 5,648

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More and more of the younger generation below 30 are getting it now as parents relax their grip and the kids go out and socialize. They are the fastest growing group, now.   Sports, dancing, and other such activities will spread the virus like wildfire.  Bars and clubs are being shut down because of that. Even if they beat the bug, there's no telling what kind of long term effect it might have on their bodies.  Clots can bring about many debilitating conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, lung impairment, kidney failure, etc.  

 

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With the recent spike in cases, I don’t think there will be any fall football. Spring is doubtful unless a vaccine is developed. Football is played in close quarters. With the virus being highly contagious numerous players will be infected. We see that in the flu season. We are only a month away from fall camp. Things aren’t going to all of a sudden get better. It’s not going to happen. 

It’s a dumb idea, but let it spread right now in summer workouts and hope players gain an immunity. Forget that I said that.

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It's a tough topic.  However PGA is enduring it live.  Euro futbol aka soccer is enduring it well and strong (see Germany), NBA has a solid plan, MLB will be back, and little things are going off extremely well..esp. tiny people baseball in Hou despite its over the top mayhem.

No fans for gridiron fall 2020?  I can well live within those requirements.  See model Europe summer futbol.  TV ratings are off the roof in EU for its futbol, No fans.

 

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They looked at a study of asymptomatic COVID-19 patients from a cruise ship. CAT scans showed they had lung damage even without experiencing symptoms. You can't play football or any other high level sports  if you have damaged lungs. 

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/covid-19-damages-lungs-of-asymptomatic-and-most-severe-patients-alike-medical-examiner-says?fbclid=IwAR2Zs-tgtX2Jt5tHwIcpxlur2reF4TLys7Rh5oPQweyQDS3vroGiCSAM-CQ

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1 hour ago, madeinhawaii said:

More and more of the younger generation below 30 are getting it now as parents relax their grip and the kids go out and socialize. They are the fastest growing group, now.   Sports, dancing, and other such activities will spread the virus like wildfire.  Bars and clubs are being shut down because of that. Even if they beat the bug, there's no telling what kind of long term effect it might have on their bodies.  Clots can bring about many debilitating conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, lung impairment, kidney failure, etc.  

 

Another point is college athletes (and most young adults) are not just gonna sit at home and wait for a vaccine. Even if they don't play sports they are still going to be out and about. I mean what 30% of Clemson's football team has already had or has the virus. That is way higher than the 10% estimate of the general population that has already had it.   

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9 hours ago, thedude15 said:

Over a 4 month period (3/1 to 6/20) CDC says the hospitalization rate for 18-29 was 32.1 per 100,000 of population. 4 months is about the same time as a football season so we can translate those number to college football. There are roughly 12,500 D1 college football players. So if they are at the same risk of acquiring COVID as an "average" 18-29 yo you would expect 4 players to get sick enough to actually go to the hospital over the course of a football season. I do expect that number to creep up a bit because 18-29 yo (in general not just college football players) are more likely to go about their life and get tired of all the restriction than say a 65 yo with multiple medical conditions. Thus there will be more cases of COVID in that group which will lead to a higher high hospitalization per 100,000. But even it the rate jumps FOUR times higher (it will increase but it wont go that high) that still means you would expect 16 players to get sick enough to go to the hospital. And statistically speaking it is very probable that none of those 4-16 cases would die. For perspective over an average 4 month period using the all cause mortality rate you would expect 2 people out of 12,500 to die in this age group.  

You really have to look at the actual numbers when deciding how to approach the season. You can't just decide based off of fear.

My proposal 

-Let any player that wishes to sit out the season sit it out. They still get their full scholarship and can have a COVID redshirt year. 

-Just have the rest of the players go full steam ahead. If you test positive you have the option to quarantine or you can continue to  play/practice. You would be required to wear a mask and have your own COVID tent at practice/games (ie so you are not congregating with other players when you are not on the field also give you a safe area to drink as that obviously can't be done with a mask on). 

-Coaches wear mask and are given the option to telework if they want to. Even though it won't be as effective you could definitely coach practices via zoom. During the game most coaches could go in the press box and you could have a select few on the field.

-Refs/other personnel can wear mask during gameday  

SO what about the evidence that even in asymptomatic people there is permanent lung damage occurring.   You are risking their life long health with the idea that they all fully recover.   sad

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3 hours ago, Coog kev said:

It's a tough topic.  However PGA is enduring it live.  Euro futbol aka soccer is enduring it well and strong (see Germany), NBA has a solid plan, MLB will be back, and little things are going off extremely well..esp. tiny people baseball in Hou despite its over the top mayhem.

No fans for gridiron fall 2020?  I can well live within those requirements.  See model Europe summer futbol.  TV ratings are off the roof in EU for its futbol, No fans.

 

Europe was far more successful in slowing the spread of disease,  Their cases are declining while ours are climbing steeply.  I also believe that there is a difference between professional and college level athlete and the risks we ask them to take.

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6 minutes ago, Billings said:

SO what about the evidence that even in asymptomatic people there is permanent lung damage occurring.   You are risking their life long health with the idea that they all fully recover.   sad

Best case 30-40% of the USA gets the virus (we have already passed 10% per CDC) then we get a vaccine. Worse case there is no effective vaccine and 70% plus of the USA gets it and we get natural herd immunity. 

Also I strongly doubt healthy 17-24 yo who know they are low risk are going to isolate until a potential vaccine. The young folk are going to get this at a lot higher rate (when this is all said and done) that other age groups. In other words the vast majority of college athletes (and college age students) will get this with or without football being played.  

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9 hours ago, thedude15 said:

I have been on board with just moving it to the springs for months. If we are lucky we will have a vaccine late 20 early 21 (ie players could likely get it in Jan or Feb of next year) and even if we don't get a vaccine the dx would have run through more people by then. I mean the "guess" is it has infected 10% of the USA population already. If we give it another 4-6 months that could be up to 30% of so. That will get use closer to herd immunity and improve the chance a spring season could be played. 

I find it next to impossible to expect a vaccine to be available in 2020 and still unlikely in Q1 2021.  Not to mention the very last group that would be given what will initially be a limited supply COVID-19 vaccine are young healthy athletes.  I've heard little talk about herd immunity having any real impact on viral spread until you reach at least 60%.  Spring 2021 football is every bit as uncertain as fall 2020 football.

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