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Coog kev

Unification Poll AAC MWC

National Conference Unification AAC cut  

85 members have voted

  1. 1. National Conference Unification AAC cut

    • Central Florida
      63
    • Cincinnati
      70
    • East Carolina
      14
    • Houston
      73
    • Memphis
      65
    • Navy all in
      45
    • South Florida
      51
    • Southern Methodist
      57
    • Temple
      24
    • Tulane
      16
    • Tulsa
      22
  2. 2. On the MWC Side

    • Air Force
      56
    • Boise State
      72
    • Colorado State
      68
    • Fresno State
      58
    • Hawai'i all in
      23
    • New Mexico
      37
    • Nevada
      43
    • San Diego State
      70
    • San Jose State
      13
    • Utah State
      35
    • UNLV
      59
    • Wyoming
      25


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On 6/17/2020 at 8:50 PM, Koji Vu said:

14 teams based on the "Southwest" Criteria:

If your stadium is a stones throw away from a Southwest Airlines Terminal, you're in. Otherwise, See Ya!

Boise, New Mexico, SDSU, SJSU, Nevada, UNLV

Cincy, UCF, USF, Houston, Memphis, Temple, Tulsa, SMU

Hawaii - Out (SWA hasn't been flying there long enough, and ruins the even number of teams)

I use this criteria for my job

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On 6/18/2020 at 2:43 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Another pie-in-the-sky BOR conference thread.  It must be summer.

 

Which has better odds of happening? Hawaii joining the PAC, or the pie-in-the-sky BOR?? :hmmm:

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@Coog kev , convincing Navy to ditch the Patriot League and go all-in would be the greatest accomplishment in college athletics history.

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13 minutes ago, jdgaucho said:

 

Which has better odds of happening? Hawaii joining the PAC, or the pie-in-the-sky BOR?? :hmmm:

The 3rd option involves airborne pigs...

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On 6/27/2020 at 11:46 AM, jdgaucho said:

@Coog kev , convincing Navy to ditch the Patriot League and go all-in would be the greatest accomplishment in college athletics history.

Maybe yes. Maybe no.  Just because they are cojoined with Army there non gridiron does not mean they cannot tap their inner AFA and be macro. Of course Navy will have its annual with ND. But as a sidebar, I did some research a few days ago which I should have done prior to posting this topic. Dummy, lazy kev.

AAC makes $7.5m/squad annual with its recent distribution rights.  MWC makes half as much similar same time frame going forward.  BYU just redid their deal, undisclosed.

I thought it was more parity and not so much Twice as Much.  Neither conference has a GOR stipulation. 

Unification will not magically bring $20m/unit unless it gets super skinny, very stealth/lean, and 10 squads only shadowing XII. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Coog kev said:

 

AAC makes $7.5m/squad annual with its recent distribution rights.  MWC makes half as much similar same time frame going forward. 

 

 

incorrect on both counts.  AAC average over 12 years is 6.94, which means the 1st year the cut is about 5.5.  MWC is lower at around 4, but it's for only 6 years, putting the initial year at about 3.5.  So about the time AAC hits the midpoint of its deal in year 6/7, the MWC will be negotiating a new one.

 

 

 

I wont get into the whole production cost thing.

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It's $1B for AAC over 12 years DIVIDED by 11 one way or another (UConn out for the $1B gig) .  Lemme check my Third Ward UH math here but that's exactly $7,576M per squad per annum simple.  Not sure what Navy gets partial or full.  Wichita State may get less. 

I do not know the AAC contract deets.  I doubt we have anything lopsided ala Boise carve out in MWC land.  I do know that there is no GOR yuk in AAC; we would be idiots to do so sans Unification.  To boot we share in the UConn exit fees junks upcoming..yawn.

MWC is inked up for a shorter term for like $270M total.  IIRC,it's not so much ESPN family AAC but Fox and CBSsports.  (Navy in AAC gets its special deal with Army on CBS Normal).

Lemme see here.  In my Third Ward math..$1B/12/11   > < =   $270M/6/12.  I'm super confused about the math... Actually not one bit.  UNIFICATION! 

 

The National Conference with a Group of Ten spread Coast to Coast will give old skool XII something to think about.  Other than itself. 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Coog kev said:

It's $1B for AAC over 12 years DIVIDED by 11 one way or another (UConn out for the $1B gig) .  Lemme check my Third Ward UH math here but that's exactly $7,576M per squad per annum simple.  Not sure what Navy gets partial or full.  Wichita State may get less. 

I do not know the AAC contract deets.  I doubt we have anything lopsided ala Boise carve out in MWC land.  I do know that there is no GOR yuk in AAC; we would be idiots to do so sans Unification.  To boot we share in the UConn exit fees junks upcoming..yawn.

MWC is inked up for a shorter term for like $270M total.  IIRC,it's not so much ESPN family AAC but Fox and CBSsports.  (Navy in AAC gets its special deal with Army on CBS Normal).

Lemme see here.  In my Third Ward math..$1B/12/11   > < =   $270M/6/12.  I'm super confused about the math... Actually not one bit.  UNIFICATION! 

 

The National Conference with a Group of Ten spread Coast to Coast will give old skool XII something to think about.  

 

 

 

 

 

No.  The loss of a member results in a requisite loss of revenue.  Less inventory, less revenue.  And all TV deals have escalating revenue over time.  The longer the deal, the lower the initial revenue.  None of this is any secret.

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On 6/29/2020 at 3:35 PM, RSF said:

incorrect on both counts.  AAC average over 12 years is 6.94, which means the 1st year the cut is about 5.5. So if it's 5.5 of the front end it will be over 6.94 on the back end...I'm thinking that's where his 7.5 number came from maybe?

 

I wont get into the whole production cost thing. 17 million in exit fees pays a whole lotta production costs

 

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On 6/29/2020 at 4:35 PM, RSF said:

incorrect on both counts.  AAC average over 12 years is 6.94, which means the 1st year the cut is about 5.5.  MWC is lower at around 4, but it's for only 6 years, putting the initial year at about 3.5.  So about the time AAC hits the midpoint of its deal in year 6/7, the MWC will be negotiating a new one.

 

 

 

I wont get into the whole production cost thing.

Some information about the stuff you mentioned has come out recently.  First of all, the average will go up overall because the aac ended up retaining UConn’s portion minus about 20% for loss of basketball, but it also increases the original number of games expected to be on linear tv ( fewer ESPN+ games) in the process. Also, ESPN has more linear available due to developments with other conferences leaving the ESPN platform (Mw).  The average will be around 7.4 million base revenue per year now.  But more importantly there’s going to be more linear programming, particularly in basketball than originally thought.  Second thing is that it was announced the first year base revenue for the new deal will be only 3.5 million/year.  While this is significant for mw folks because it means the first year will be quite low for aac (and equitable to mw) it is also significant for the team’s still in the aac 8 years from now because the escalation will bring the base revenue to 10 million/year and more, which is a number MW will never see, and set the groundwork for the aac’s follow up contract to set further separation.  Finally, I mentioned base revenue above because this year’s $ dispersal from the conference to the UCF board was made known during the last meeting.  This is where I heard about the UConn discussions as it relates to the media deal by the way...any way, this year the base revenue from the aac to UCF was 2 million.  However, the AAC paid UCF 7.4 million this year (it was 7.2 million last year).  Relative to base revenue those are significant numbers.  So while the base numbers are one thing, actual dispersals are another.  Of course if another conference starts pulling in multiple tournament teams and ny6 Bowls and higher viewership annually then I’m  sure similar increases are possible there as well.  It does need to happen soon though because the separation is real.

 

It’s smart not to get into production cost because it was shown to be negligible and even more so now.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Some information about the stuff you mentioned has come out recently.  First of all, the average will go up overall because the aac ended up retaining UConn’s portion minus about 20% for loss of basketball, but it also increases the original number of games expected to be on linear tv ( fewer ESPN+ games) in the process. Also, ESPN has more linear available due to developments with other conferences leaving the ESPN platform (Mw).  The average will be around 7.4 million base revenue per year now.  But more importantly there’s going to be more linear programming, particularly in basketball than originally thought.  Second thing is that it was announced the first year base revenue for the new deal will be only 3.5 million/year.  While this is significant for mw folks because it means the first year will be quite low for aac (and equitable to mw) it is also significant for the team’s still in the aac 8 years from now because the escalation will bring the base revenue to 10 million/year and more, which is a number MW will never see, and set the groundwork for the aac’s follow up contract to set further separation.  Finally, I mentioned base revenue above because this year’s $ dispersal from the conference to the UCF board was made known during the last meeting.  This is where I heard about the UConn discussions as it relates to the media deal by the way...any way, this year the base revenue from the aac to UCF was 2 million.  However, the AAC paid UCF 7.4 million this year (it was 7.2 million last year).  Relative to base revenue those are significant numbers.  So while the base numbers are one thing, actual dispersals are another.  Of course if another conference starts pulling in multiple tournament teams and ny6 Bowls and higher viewership annually then in sure similar increases are possible there as well.  It does need to happen soon though because the separation is real.

 

It’s smart not to get into production cost because it was shown to be negligible and even more so now.  

 

that's good info...looks like the MWC leaving ESPN helped us.

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2 minutes ago, UofMTigers said:

that's good info...looks like the MWC leaving ESPN helped us.

It didn’t really come down to a monetary benefit because the vast majority of the money was tied to football.  Football wasn’t really going to be affected by ESPN+.  The helping comes from exposure in basketball season.  There’s going to be more aac basketball games on tv.  ESPN + will still get non revenue sports, but that actually works well because people that watch non revenue sports tend to want to do so remotely.  The games that matter will be linear so they can be seen at the bar or whatever public place.  The biggest news was the UConn stuff and the additional payouts from the conference.  

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Fer what it's worth (not much), I'm down with the original post idea.  Sure.  I like the notion of 2 schools each in CA, FL, & TX... UNLV (roadie!)... Cincinatti (they're solid all around sports)... New Mexico (mmmm, green chile)... and the Mighty Mighty Ramtones.

 

Prolly better to be 12 members (east/west divisions) to maximize regionality & minimize continental travel.

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On 6/26/2020 at 6:14 PM, boisewitha-s said:

Unlv, new mex are non starters. If we had to choose between the two new mex would get the nod. 

I'd hazard an opinion that Albuquerque and Las Vegas are approximately as important as Boise in relation to TV market potential.  The issue with both is lack of high-level football interest. In Albuquerque, due to traditionally poor performance (shouldn't have forced Rocky out!) and to a lesser degree, culture.  For Vegas, the transient nature of the core population with no organic ties to the local university...and poor performance.  The upside for both?  Basketball tradition!

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To my fellow buds chiming in re AAC deal for the $1B threshold secured.  WE can do far better than that.  Actually, WE have to.  WE all have to.  It's gonna be difficult in a few short years to strongly lobby for permanent change.  No one in the G5 has a GOR clause.  WE are free to exit, combine, do what WE want.

B1G, XII, and PAC have new deals to renegotiate by 2023. 

IMO, there will be no dominoes with all that.  It's not like Texas is bolting to B1G or PAC.  SEC is not gonna magically jump up to 16 with the annexation of West Virginia and one of the Oklahomas.. PAC may be the wild horse Desperate One, but I strongly doubt it.

Unify. Create the National Conference with no dead wood and make tough choices.  Minimum bid $20B over initial offer of 6, 7 years.  Probation bid ish.  Prove it up and jump up to far better than that by 2030. 

fine, I'll take a 5-year deal for $2B and then prove it up ending in 2029. If not proven proven up, no harrm, no biggie.  IF proven the multiple jumps Long Side to the 2040s with ESPN, Fox, and a special carve out for other Platforms, exp including Self Programming and Unit Proprietary Matters depending on market share and programming appeal. 

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AS far as I could tell here is a list of the teams listed in the poll with the ranking of the TV markt size, I bring this up because eye's on the TV set are a big determiner

Temple #4

SMU #5

San Jose St #6

Houston #8

South Florida #12

Colorado St #17

Central Florida #18

Navy #26

San Deigo #29

BYU and Utah St #30

Cinncinati #37

UNLV #39

New Mexico #46

Tulane #50

Memphis #51

Fresno #55

Tulsa #58

Hawaii #66

Air Force $85

Boise #102

UNR #104

ECU #194

Wyoming #196

 

I know you have to take into consideration if a team has any following in their TV market area. IE San Jose St has very little following, also BYU commands their TV market and Utah St doesnt attract very many viewers. Of course quality of the program is very important but when it comes time to negociate TV contracts the networks are going to look at viewership numbers.

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TV eyeballs, markets, diversified platforms minor, but big bucks Sell is what it's all about c, 2023.  No one wants to hear about closed programs. (Despite both Cincy and Boise in Unification Theory). 

Actually, I need to lobby for more and better.  The implosion of XII.

 

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3 hours ago, Coog kev said:

To my fellow buds chiming in re AAC deal for the $1B threshold secured.  WE can do far better than that.  Actually, WE have to.  WE all have to.  It's gonna be difficult in a few short years to strongly lobby for permanent change.  No one in the G5 has a GOR clause.  WE are free to exit, combine, do what WE want.

B1G, XII, and PAC have new deals to renegotiate by 2023. 

IMO, there will be no dominoes with all that.  It's not like Texas is bolting to B1G or PAC.  SEC is not gonna magically jump up to 16 with the annexation of West Virginia and one of the Oklahomas.. PAC may be the wild horse Desperate One, but I strongly doubt it.

Unify. Create the National Conference with no dead wood and make tough choices.  Minimum bid $20B over initial offer of 6, 7 years.  Probation bid ish.  Prove it up and jump up to far better than that by 2030. 

fine, I'll take a 5-year deal for $2B and then prove it up ending in 2029. If not proven proven up, no harrm, no biggie.  IF proven the multiple jumps Long Side to the 2040s with ESPN, Fox, and a special carve out for other Platforms, exp including Self Programming and Unit Proprietary Matters depending on market share and programming appeal. 

that's exactly what will happen. Texas/Oklahoma join the PAC-14 leaving the Big XII scrambling for 4 new members.

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Ames, Iowa.  Manhattan, Kansas.  Morgantown, West Virginia.

 

No thanks, unless couch burning is acceptable again.

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