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Is the P5 reaching a tipping point for a break away

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16 hours ago, YNot said:

Easy. More LSU v. Texas and USC v. Alabama; less LSU v. Central Michigan and Alabama v. Kent State.

Helps to sell and retain season tickets and better matchup options to maximize TV revenue. 

The fact that the SEC all still play FCS games should tell you that there is a limit to how many of those games will be played in a season. There are also only 3 prime tv slots per weekend day and TV ratings for CFB are already at all-time highs. What you are talking about is akin to a drug addict chasing the dragon. 

 

 

 

 

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On 5/27/2020 at 4:32 PM, AztecSU said:

The math doesn't work if they split. They'll lose too many viewers and further reduce value of games(Hoops) from outside the power group which will never go away outside of FB. It's self defeating and more than likely would be a failed experiment that would cause the death of the PAC and perhaps the B12. 

NM

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Just now, SparkysDad said:

NM

Problem is, more games = more money.  There's a reason why the money people are trying to get student athletes to play additional games.  I don't see a total split of the P5 for that very reason.

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If the G5 refused to play the P5, it would reduce the big boys home games from 7-8 a season to a maximum of 6 per season....I don't think the P5 would like that very much......I would not watch any P5 games if they broke from the NCAA and I'm sure many others feel the same.....

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36 minutes ago, dudleyDgroot said:

If the G5 refused to play the P5, it would reduce the big boys home games from 7-8 a season to a maximum of 6 per season....I don't think the P5 would like that very much......I would not watch any P5 games if they broke from the NCAA and I'm sure many others feel the same.....

You just relegate yourself if you do this.

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14 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

That mean the G5 and BYU would only play home conference games or games against other G5's. That would kill some schools programs. And if BYU isn't invited with the P5 and it's 65 teams. You all are really +++++ed.

BYU has 8+ games contracted through the 2025 season thusfar. So either they still play it or buy them out. 

G5 teams have always been willing to play BYU. The only reason they won't is if the bosses in SLC decide BYU isn't going to have a team.

 

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2 hours ago, SparkysDad said:

Problem is, more games = more money.  There's a reason why the money people are trying to get student athletes to play additional games.  I don't see a total split of the P5 for that very reason.

One thing is clear, the middle/bottom of the P5 live on wins over programs from lower conferences. Let them go to 65+1 and only play each other and we'll see how well the middle and bottom of the P5 do and are supported after a decade of losing like they never have before. 

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

One thing is clear, the middle/bottom of the P5 live on wins over programs from lower conferences. Let them go to 65+1 and only play each other and we'll see how well the middle and bottom of the P5 do and are supported after a decade of losing like they never have before. 

If they get to 65 and split from the NCAA, the next step would be to cut the deadweight (the Oregon State's, Purdues, Villanova's of the world, etc.).  There really aren't much more than a handful of truly influential college football programs ala Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame...the true Blue Bloods that could pull the financial levers effectively for their own benefit.

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I'm struggling with the article's premise that this is a G5/P5 demarcation for schools that will struggle or break away... Healthy MWC athletic programs already lived with modest budgets and never relied on jaw- dropping tv $... Staying in your middle class home when you lived  within your means and one spouse loses a job is doable... big-time power 5 will also have enough support to manage loss of major tv$... Won't the bottom feeder p5 programs that don't have a major following and heavily relied on tv $ be the most vulnerable? The following for programs like Oregon State, Washington State, etc look more like average MWC schools than P5 programs... Take away their tv $ and they are minnows swimming with whales.

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50 minutes ago, Rambouche said:

I'm struggling with the article's premise that this is a G5/P5 demarcation for schools that will struggle or break away... Healthy MWC athletic programs already lived with modest budgets and never relied on jaw- dropping tv $... Staying in your middle class home when you lived  within your means and one spouse loses a job is doable... big-time power 5 will also have enough support to manage loss of major tv$... Won't the bottom feeder p5 programs that don't have a major following and heavily relied on tv $ be the most vulnerable? The following for programs like Oregon State, Washington State, etc look more like average MWC schools than P5 programs... Take away their tv $ and they are minnows swimming with whales.

They always have been, and having them be in that group won't change things for them except for them getting the boot at some point. They are subsidized. Most athletic departments in D1 are.

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5 minutes ago, Jack Bauer said:

They always have been, and having them be in that group won't change things for them except for them getting the boot at some point. They are subsidized. Most athletic departments in D1 are.

Agree... I'm curious when the P5 power brokers separate the wheat from the chaff and keep all the $ for themselves...MWC and AAC already fend for themselves as P5 adjacent...not sure what is left to formally break away from or what the revenue generating P5s gain from calling themselves something different... However, the USCs UTs of the world gain a lot by cutting off the likes of osu and k-state. If seismic change is coming, my money is on the true power brokers separating from the P5 bottom feeders.

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15 minutes ago, Rambouche said:

Agree... I'm curious when the P5 power brokers separate the wheat from the chaff and keep all the $ for themselves...MWC and AAC already fend for themselves as P5 adjacent...not sure what is left to formally break away from or what the revenue generating P5s gain from calling themselves something different... However, the USCs UTs of the world gain a lot by cutting off the likes of osu and k-state. If seismic change is coming, my money is on the true power brokers separating from the P5 bottom feeders.

Is this even possible though due to the grant of rights terms? Or would the schools have to all time their departure/realignment with the end term of current contracts? Thinking about your example it makes a lot of sense for the top of the P12 and top of the B12 to realign together and drop their dead weight. Outside of those conf's though it seems unlikely to me. ACC isn't strong, but they get a lot of eye balls. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SparkysDad said:

If they get to 65 and split from the NCAA, the next step would be to cut the deadweight (the Oregon State's, Purdues, Villanova's of the world, etc.).  There really aren't much more than a handful of truly influential college football programs ala Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame...the true Blue Bloods that could pull the financial levers effectively for their own benefit.

When that happens most schools west of the mississippi, and every P5 west of the front range not named USC,  is going to be on the chopping block. #contraction

 

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20 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

Is this even possible though due to the grant of rights terms? Or would the schools have to all time their departure/realignment with the end term of current contracts? Thinking about your example it makes a lot of sense for the top of the P12 and top of the B12 to realign together and drop their dead weight. Outside of those conf's though it seems unlikely to me. ACC isn't strong, but they get a lot of eye balls. 

I have no idea on the GOR logistics... P12 and B12 have some serious bottom dwellers that look like MWC or AAC programs if not for the machinations of history... Other candidates for relegation outside of P12 and B12...Vandy? Illinois? Indiana? NC State? Syracuse? Northwestern?.... The biggest gulf seems to be between the 20+ semi-pro programs that are NFL mills... followed by a huge middle and then the bottom feeders (see SJSU, Sun Belt, MAC) that don't compare favorably to the top of the FCS...

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On 5/27/2020 at 2:19 PM, alum93 said:

There are 130 FBS schools, 65 of them are P5.  Why would those 65 want to split money with 25 more schools if they broke away?  I would think if a new super conference were formed,  it would be a 65/65 team split, or even 70/60.  60 G5 teams would allow for 5 conferences of 12 teams, or to make it more regional,  6 conferences of 10 teams.  

I would think the power programs of the P5 would break off leaving some current P5 programs behind - There's some current P5 programs that just lucked into their situation because of long time ties that in this changing economic climate probably can no longer be justified 

This is only football I'm talking about - there's some dead weight that could be cut loose - THis is where the MWC & other G5's could suffer, if some of the P%'s get demoted, then there's probably going to be relaginment at the G5 level as the former P5's align with the best of the G5 to form a best of the leftovers conference - Might be a combo of the MWC, P5 demotions & AAC 

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12 minutes ago, Rambouche said:

I have no idea on the GOR logistics... P12 and B12 have some serious bottom dwellers that look like MWC or AAC programs if not for the machinations of history... Other candidates for relegation outside of P12 and B12...Vandy? Illinois? Indiana? NC State? Syracuse? Northwestern?.... The biggest gulf seems to be between the 20+ semi-pro programs that are NFL mills... followed by a huge middle and then the bottom feeders (see SJSU, Sun Belt, MAC) that don't compare favorably to the top of the FCS...

With endorsement/personal likeness $ coming to players sooner than later, the blue bloods are really going to be in another stratosphere...

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11 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

I would think the power programs of the P5 would break off leaving some current P5 programs behind - There's some current P5 programs that just lucked into their situation because of long time ties that in this changing economic climate probably can no longer be justified 

This is only football I'm talking about - there's some dead weight that could be cut loose - THis is where the MWC & other G5's could suffer, if some of the P%'s get demoted, then there's probably going to be relaginment at the G5 level as the former P5's align with the best of the G5 to form a best of the leftovers conference - Might be a combo of the MWC, P5 demotions & AAC 

I'd love that for CSU... Their peer schools by geography and academics are the land grant schools in the Midwest and West...KState/CSU games would be super fun.

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SEC - Florida Georgia Tennessee Alabama Auburn LSU A&M ..........Out Kentucky Missouri South Carolina Vanderbilt Arkansas Mississippi Miss St 

Big10 - Michigan Mich St Ohio St Penn St Nebraska Wisconsin Iowa ..........Out Indiana Maryland Rutgers Illinois Minnesota Northwestern Purdue 

Pac12 - USC Oregon Washington Colorado UCLA  Arizona Arizona St  ................Out Stanford Cal Utah Oregon St Washington St  

ACC - Clemson Florida St Notre Dame Miami UNC Virginia Tech ..............Out Boston College Louisville NC State Syracuse Wake Forest Duke Georgia Tech Pittsburgh Virginia 

Big 12 - Texas Oklahoma Texas Tech Oklahoma St ................ Out Baylor Iowa St Kansas Kansas St TCU West Virginia 

7 from the SEC........7 from the B10..........7 from the PAC12 .............6 from the ACC..................4 from the B12 ...............thats 31............ could argue to remove some that I listed such as ASU & UA from PAC12, UNC & VA Tech from ACC, & TT & OSU from B12..........removing those schools would leave 25 so maybe on other gets cut like Colorado or Iowa ..........then you're down to 24 pretty much blue blood programs ........those 24 form their own governing body and make their own TV deals 

Then you'd have the green leftovers having to either align themselves or add in a mix of the best potential of the AAC & MWC.............from there the leftovers of the MWC & AAC would have to scramble to align with CUSA & Sun Belt as the lowest level 

This could end up being a three tiered college set up one where the top level completely ignores the lower levels .........the two relagined lower levels could inter-play and still remain under some revised NCAA governance 

 

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22 minutes ago, Rambouche said:

I'd love that for CSU... Their peer schools by geography and academics and the land grant schools in the Midwest and West...KState/CSU games would be super fun.

In my scenario that's what would happen.........the better / potential of the MWC would have to try to align with the leftovers from the shattered P5

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13 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

SEC - Florida Georgia Tennessee Alabama Auburn LSU A&M ..........Out Kentucky Missouri South Carolina Vanderbilt Arkansas Mississippi Miss St 

Big10 - Michigan Mich St Ohio St Penn St Nebraska Wisconsin Iowa ..........Out Indiana Maryland Rutgers Illinois Minnesota Northwestern Purdue 

Pac12 - USC Oregon Washington Colorado UCLA  Arizona Arizona St  ................Out Stanford Cal Utah Oregon St Washington St  

ACC - Clemson Florida St Notre Dame Miami UNC Virginia Tech ..............Out Boston College Louisville NC State Syracuse Wake Forest Duke Georgia Tech Pittsburgh Virginia 

Big 12 - Texas Oklahoma Texas Tech Oklahoma St ................ Out Baylor Iowa St Kansas Kansas St TCU West Virginia 

7 from the SEC........7 from the B10..........7 from the PAC12 .............6 from the ACC..................4 from the B12 ...............thats 31............ could argue to remove some that I listed such as ASU & UA from PAC12, UNC & VA Tech from ACC, & TT & OSU from B12..........removing those schools would leave 25 so maybe on other gets cut like Colorado or Iowa ..........then you're down to 24 pretty much blue blood programs ........those 24 form their own governing body and make their own TV deals 

Then you'd have the green leftovers having to either align themselves or add in a mix of the best potential of the AAC & MWC.............from there the leftovers of the MWC & AAC would have to scramble to align with CUSA & Sun Belt as the lowest level 

This could end up being a three tiered college set up one where the top level completely ignores the lower levels .........the two relagined lower levels could inter-play and still remain under some revised NCAA governance 

 

I like it. I'd add Arizona and CU to the drop column. Both have been awful for a long time and don't seem to be working towards being football factories. Baylor and Utah get the call up.

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