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C-USA/Sun Belt realignment

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12 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

I pointed out that P5 conferences already have all the leverage. I also don't make the argument anywhere in my post about the G5 content all being at a similar level to P5 content .

My point is in the end game of survival and limited options, merging is a survival strategy that provides additional leverage, albeit minor, that didn't exist before. The mergers would reduce available content sources outside the P5 from 5 to 3, and specifically in the case of a MW/AAC merger and SB/CUSA mergers it would consolidate content most desired (outside the power group of course). A merger between SB/CUSA, considering the level of their current tv deal seems to, at least in my opinion, not expose them to much risk for their gamble as they are very unlikely to get even less money than they already do. 

In short, making changes to tweak and optimize value is not that same as being delusional enough to think it magically will make these conferences P5 level.

I misread your other post.  My bad.  With respect to CUSA/Sun Belt,  i don't see it happening.  Well, not before P5 changes.  I don't think conferences will remain as is across the board more than a few more years.  BiG, SEC, and ACC are relatively safe and stable.  I think something will happen with B12 or P12, and then all heck will break loose again.  It will just take one big shoe, a Texas or Oklahoma or USC, to start the ball rolling.   

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1 hour ago, alum93 said:

I misread your other post.  My bad.  With respect to CUSA/Sun Belt,  i don't see it happening.  Well, not before P5 changes.  I don't think conferences will remain as is across the board more than a few more years.  BiG, SEC, and ACC are relatively safe and stable.  I think something will happen with B12 or P12, and then all heck will break loose again.  It will just take one big shoe, a Texas or Oklahoma or USC, to start the ball rolling.   

All good, and you're probably right since any moves pre-realignment at the top could lead to another round of changes for the conferences below. The most likely catalyst would be P5 becoming P4 but not separating as well as expansion of the playoff to 8-10 teams.

Everyone is talking about 8 team expanded CFP, but I think the magic number is actually 10. In the example of the P4, the division champs become the the top 8 seeds of the CFP. Seeds 9 & 10 are basically given to the top 2 champs from the whatever the G5 will look like at that time. Then you have a play-in round where 9 & 10 play 7 & 8. Top 6 seeds essentially have first round bye in this model. And yes it would kill conference championships because that will be the only way to prevent a low quality P5 from making it into the semi's or beyond because the whole conference is down (See PAC rn as an example of this). This would please the SEC/BIG assuming the $$ is right because they could still end up with 2 schools from their conference in the semi/championship. 

Still though, CUSA/SB having such poor contracts really allows them to consider a major experiment in a way the MW and AAC just can't right now.

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I dont see how a "merger"  between CUSA and the Sunbelt makes any sense what so ever.  As a merged 24 team conference, those 24 schools would be giving up half the auto-bids that group currently enjoys and still have a ton of travel.   I do think it makes a lot of sense for the two conferences to reshuffle their membership in order to become two much more regional conferences.  

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50 minutes ago, CaffeinatedCoog said:

I dont see how a "merger"  between CUSA and the Sunbelt makes any sense what so ever.  As a merged 24 team conference, those 24 schools would be giving up half the auto-bids that group currently enjoys and still have a ton of travel.   I do think it makes a lot of sense for the two conferences to reshuffle their membership in order to become two much more regional conferences.  

Half the auto bids? So 1 bid worth about $250k right? Not sure that would prohibit consideration. And again I think the likely result is an alliance where the conferences may still compete for their own championships(especially outside of FB) but rights for the conferences would be sold as a bundle. As much as we sit saying it wouldn't happen (and admittedly I don't think it actually will) the issue for networks is now same amount of competition for fewer available content sources (Reduced from 5 to 3). Even in the worst speculation about the P5 splitting off there is almost always comments that the 65+1 would need to bring about another 20-25 schools with them or scheduling would be an issue...more than half of those schools are in the MW/ACC and most of the rest are in the SB/CUSA.

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On 5/28/2020 at 12:19 PM, slappy said:

Does Joe Vandal fit?  Can Boise State block them from moving back up now?  @VandalPride97 

@boisewitha-s

Who knows.  The P5 is probably going to break away and the G5 will cannibalize.  No one knows what's in store.  The one good thing about FCS is that we didn't run up a huge operating budget that is shot to hell by C19.  Lots of schools rely on ticket sales to fund their athletics program.  Those guys will be hurting.

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On 5/29/2020 at 11:10 AM, VandalPride97 said:

Who knows.  The P5 is probably going to break away and the G5 will cannibalize.  No one knows what's in store.  The one good thing about FCS is that we didn't run up a huge operating budget that is shot to hell by C19.  Lots of schools rely on ticket sales to fund their athletics program.  Those guys will be hurting.

Perhaps those that rely on state tax funding, and student fees should also be concerned

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On 5/27/2020 at 11:49 AM, bigd said:

It seems like this has been a long time coming, and the coronavirus will likely be the trigger to make it happen. There have been a lot of articles lately on their possible merger. A merger seems a bit crazy, they should really just have one conference for the eastern team and one of the western.

https://krod.com/conference-usa-and-sun-belt-could-combine-in-pandemic-recovery/

From this article:

There have been a handful of suggested models for how to merge the two leagues.

 

I would be happy for NMSU if this realignment allows them to finally join a conference, and one that has UTEP at that. That would definitely create some questions about the survival of the WAC though.

 

 

Ultimately, this makes too much sense not too happen.

Nmsu can rot for all I care 

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On 5/28/2020 at 9:01 AM, #1Stunner said:

What about their basketball and other sports though?

I know their basketball has always been mediocre.  Not sure about their other sports though....

You think the PAC12 would let them stay?

Nah. But with B1G $ they wouldn't need to worry about cost, especially if UCLA went with them. I could see their smaller sports going to the WCC.

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On 5/28/2020 at 2:35 PM, CaffeinatedCoog said:

I dont see how a "merger"  between CUSA and the Sunbelt makes any sense what so ever.  As a merged 24 team conference, those 24 schools would be giving up half the auto-bids that group currently enjoys and still have a ton of travel.   I do think it makes a lot of sense for the two conferences to reshuffle their membership in order to become two much more regional conferences.  

I don’t think a merger makes sense; but swapping schools so that you have one conference centered in Texas/Louisiana and one centered in Florida/Georgia/the Carolinas would be a pretty good and proactive move on their parts. The conferences would still be pretty balanced, but much more concise geographically. 
 

Western Conference 
Texas State

Rice

North Texas

UTSA

UTEP

UL Lafayette 

UL Monroe

LA Tech

Ark State

Southern Miss

Mid Tenn State

Western Kentucky 

UT Arlington 

Ark Little Rock

 

Eastern Conference 

FIU

FAU

Georgia St.

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

App State

Charlotte

ODU

Marshall

UAB

South Alabama

Troy

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8 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I don’t think a merger makes sense; but swapping schools so that you have one conference centered in Texas/Louisiana and one centered in Florida/Georgia/the Carolinas would be a pretty good and proactive move on their parts. The conferences would still be pretty balanced, but much more concise geographically. 
 

Western Conference 
Texas State

Rice

North Texas

UTSA

UTEP

UL Lafayette 

UL Monroe

LA Tech

Ark State

Southern Miss

Mid Tenn State

Western Kentucky 

UT Arlington 

Ark Little Rock

 

Eastern Conference 

FIU

FAU

Georgia St.

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

App State

Charlotte

ODU

Marshall

UAB

South Alabama

Troy

It makes sense, but the reality is LA Tech and ULM will not be in a conference together regardless of what is happening.

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I can do better.

Gulf Coast Conference:

New Mexico State, UTEP, UTSA, Texas State, North Texas, Rice, LA Tech, LA Lafayette, LA Monroe

Sunbelt Conference:

Arkansas St., Southern Miss, UAB, Middle Tennessee, Western KY, Marshall, Troy, South Alabama, Liberty

American Atlantic Conference:

FIU, FAU, Georgia Southern, Georgia St., Appalachian St., Coastal Carolina, Charlotte, Old Dominion, UMASS

Each conference has nine teams so they all play a round robin in football. Aside from UMASS being an outlier it makes since regionally, protects the rivalries, they are all similar in strength. Most importantly, they can do a round robin and still have four OOC games so they can take pay games to keep the programs afloat. And finally it gives most of the Indy's a home leaving only Notre Dame, BYU (Sucks), Army, and UCONN as the only remaining Indy's.

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CUSA: Marshall, Southern Miss, MTSU, UAB, Arkansas State, La Tech, WKU, FAU, FIU, Little Rock (Olympic sports only member)

Sun Belt: Appy State, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Ga State, Ga Southern, USA, UL-M, UL-L, Coastal Carolina, UTA (Olympic sports only member)

WAC: NMSU, Texas State, UTEP, UTSA, Rice, UNT, Idaho, UMass (football only), Liberty (football only), Grand Canyon (Olympic sports only), UTRGV (Olympic sports only), Seattle U (Olympic sports only), Cal Baptist (Olympic sports only), Utah Valley (Olympic Sports only)

each conf can hold a champ game as you'll play every member of your conference with an 8 game schedule.

just a thought.

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14 hours ago, Ibanez said:

Nah. But with B1G $ they wouldn't need to worry about cost, especially if UCLA went with them. I could see their smaller sports going to the WCC.

 

Throw in a certain amount of hoops games per year - let's say three, with at least one roadie - and that's a good arrangement for both USC and the WCC.

@#1Stunner ?

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On 5/27/2020 at 4:20 PM, SDSUfan said:

 How does all of this impact UNLV's chance to get into the PAC12?

Discuss

UNLV will get in.  The PAC-12 will start to get paid more.

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1 hour ago, UofMTigers said:

CUSA: Marshall, Southern Miss, MTSU, UAB, Arkansas State, La Tech, WKU, FAU, FIU, Little Rock (Olympic sports only member)

Sun Belt: Appy State, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Ga State, Ga Southern, USA, UL-M, UL-L, Coastal Carolina, UTA (Olympic sports only member)

WAC: NMSU, Texas State, UTEP, UTSA, Rice, UNT, Idaho, UMass (football only), Liberty (football only), Grand Canyon (Olympic sports only), UTRGV (Olympic sports only), Seattle U (Olympic sports only), Cal Baptist (Olympic sports only), Utah Valley (Olympic Sports only)

each conf can hold a champ game as you'll play every member of your conference with an 8 game schedule.

just a thought.

So you basically tried copying me and added a bunch of Olympic onlys as well? Come on man...

I feel like the Hawaii add is different then just adding a bunch of basketball schools. Without the MWC, Hawaii probably drops football. Plus, it gives the MWC teams an extra game if they want it. So it's beneficial for the conference and Hawaii. Even if Hawaii fans think they deserve better.

Adding a bunch of basketball schools that will probably never make the tourney, especially with how the P5 & Big East are slowly pulling away from the rest of us. it's gotten so bad a B1G team that goes 16-13 are getting in ahead of a MWC, AAC, or A-10 team that only loses 6-7 games. And with teams playing more conference games, you're killing your S.O.S.

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2 hours ago, Ibanez said:

Yeah, no.

You’re jealous of Las f-ckin’ Vegas!  You probably thought we were never getting professional f-ckin’ sports!  And you were proven f-ckin’ wrong!

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2 hours ago, ph90702 said:

You’re jealous of Las f-ckin’ Vegas!  You probably thought we were never getting professional f-ckin’ sports!  And you were proven f-ckin’ wrong!

I don't f-ckin' care about Last Vegas or what they have. I just know UNLV doesn't draw enough fans to get in the PAC-12 as it stands now. And you're one of the worst teams west of the Mississippi and it's been that way for decades. They would gain nothing.

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1 minute ago, Ibanez said:

I don't f-ckin' care about Last Vegas or what they have. I just know UNLV doesn't draw enough fans to get in the PAC-12 as it stands now. And you're one of the worst teams west of the Mississippi and it's been that way for decades. They would gain nothing.

Las Vegas is an untapped f-ckin’ market!  It’s about the f-ckin’ future!  And the PAC-12 will make the decision to let UNLV f-ckin’ join!

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Just now, ph90702 said:

Las Vegas is an untapped f-ckin’ market!  It’s about the f-ckin’ future!  And the PAC-12 will make the decision to let UNLV f-ckin’ join!

No one in Las Vegas cares about UNLV. So no, the PAC-12 doesn't either. The one major flaw in expansion is thinking markets matter. Eugene, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, Clemson, Waco, Lincoln, South Bend,  Bloomington, Lexington, Stillwater ...I can keep going.

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