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bigd

C-USA/Sun Belt realignment

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It seems like this has been a long time coming, and the coronavirus will likely be the trigger to make it happen. There have been a lot of articles lately on their possible merger. A merger seems a bit crazy, they should really just have one conference for the eastern team and one of the western.

https://krod.com/conference-usa-and-sun-belt-could-combine-in-pandemic-recovery/

From this article:

There have been a handful of suggested models for how to merge the two leagues.

 
Quote

 

One proposal adds Liberty to the 12-team East regional grouping, along with Appalachian State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia State and Georgia Southern.

The 14-team West side would include: UL, UL-Monroe, Louisiana Tech, South Alabama, USM, Troy, UAB, Arkansas State, New Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, Texas State, UTSA and UTEP.

Both sides would be divided into six-team and seven-team divisions.

Others prefer James Madison instead of Liberty. OK, that’s fine. Again, it’s not time to quibble over such details.

 

I would be happy for NMSU if this realignment allows them to finally join a conference, and one that has UTEP at that. That would definitely create some questions about the survival of the WAC though.

 

 

Ultimately, this makes too much sense not too happen.

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A lot of opinion articles.  

 

 

Because people are straining to find things to write.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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Doesn’t seem like this is anything other then pure speculation, but I think it’s a good idea. Very reminiscent of the argument I was making a few months ago in that the Big Sky and WAC should do something similar where they combine or swap schools and have all the Pacific Northwest schools in the Big Sky, and the WAC becomes based around the four corners states and Texas. You could keep Sac State in the BSC and Cal Baptist in the WAC, and Weber could stay in the BSC if they want, but the general point is that both conferences would benefit from the reduced sprawl. 

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My guess is the B12 will have serious movement before any realignment with Sun Belt and CUSA happens.  The B12 GOR expires in 2025.  Also you have P12 schools making way less than BiG and SEC schools.  I just think the conference chaos will be driven from the top down.  

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Unlikely. These are two separate organizations that have their own employees, cultures and bureaucracy. Higher ups in these organizations are not going to want to make themselves redundant. It would be different if there was something in it for the schools to make it happen, but this is small potatoes shit. Not worth the effort.

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They should realign to the FCS

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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If it happens, it gives Rice something to do with more than 400 people in their lofty on campus stadium re football.  BTW...I dunno why Rice doesn't market their stadium for outdoor concerts in middle Hou. Somebody will figure it out..great location mid town, very fine seating, decent tail gating parking lot...Rice needs to book outdoor concerts. Totally down for that mess when it occurs. Rice Stadium hosted the 1974 Super Bowl for its cred.

150px-Coat_of_arms_of_the_University_of_Houston_System.png

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 How does all of this impact UNLV's chance to get into the PAC12?

Discuss

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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Guest #1Stunner
4 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

People don't believe me but before all of this chaos started happening USC (And someone else. I thought it was Texas but it was supposed to be another PAC-12 team.) was talking to the B1G. Also, Colorado has talked to the Big 12. I suppose it could be Colorado who was also talking to the B1G but I doubt it.

Covid-19 probably killed that for at least a few years if not for good.

I've believe you.

 

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1 hour ago, Ibanez said:

People don't believe me but before all of this chaos started happening USC (And someone else. I thought it was Texas but it was supposed to be another PAC-12 team.) was talking to the B1G. Also, Colorado has talked to the Big 12. I suppose it could be Colorado who was also talking to the B1G but I doubt it.

Covid-19 probably killed that for at least a few years if not for good.

https://frankthetank.me/

I remember thinking this was an interesting take back in the day. Essentially, most graduates of big 10 schools end up in NYC, DC, Chicago, LA, or the bay area. The first two were a big part of why the added Rutgers and Maryland. Maybe they want to complete the domination of Americas most economically important markets by adding USC and Stanford as well? I'm sure their alumni would love being able to see their teams out west more often.

 

But yes as you said, Covid likely shut any possibility of this happening down. It would be fun though to have USC in the same league as Ohio State and Michigan. And other than maybe Stanford and UCLA I don't think USC is really that attached to the Pac 12.

 

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Guest #1Stunner
5 hours ago, Ibanez said:

I also think USC is tired of being out recruited. I think they are tired of trying to keep up with teams out east. Tired of bad TV time slots, and haven't been impressed with the PAC-12 networks. The PAC-12 is as balanced as any of the other P5 conferences. The problem is the PAC-12 is average from top to bottom. The best team in the PAC-12 since the playoff s started was a Washington team that looked like a decent middle of the road SEC team when it played Auburn and Alabama. A move to the B1G would be huge for the USC and B1G. And a flight to LA? Come on. That's easy.

What about their basketball and other sports though?

I know their basketball has always been mediocre.  Not sure about their other sports though....

You think the PAC12 would let them stay?

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6 hours ago, Ibanez said:

I also think USC is tired of being out recruited. I think they are tired of trying to keep up with teams out east. Tired of bad TV time slots, and haven't been impressed with the PAC-12 networks. The PAC-12 is as balanced as any of the other P5 conferences. The problem is the PAC-12 is average from top to bottom. The best team in the PAC-12 since the playoff s started was a Washington team that looked like a decent middle of the road SEC team when it played Auburn and Alabama. A move to the B1G would be huge for the USC and B1G. And a flight to LA? Come on. That's easy.

You're forgetting Oregon who played in the 1st CFP game iirc?

 

 

 

 

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A merger between CUSA/SB and or even MW/AAC makes far more sense than the P5 splitting off completely and starting and then administrating a replacement for the NCAA. 

The game is leverage + value = contract. P5 conf/schools have high value and high leverage as a default. Some G5 schools have more value than others but none have leverage in the current arrangement. You create leverage by controlling more of the pool of available content. Even if the agreement is really just for rights with some scheduling agreements thrown in and not an actual merger it would likely lead to a higher per unit rate in the resulting contract. 

 

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, bigd said:

It seems like this has been a long time coming, and the coronavirus will likely be the trigger to make it happen. There have been a lot of articles lately on their possible merger. A merger seems a bit crazy, they should really just have one conference for the eastern team and one of the western.

https://krod.com/conference-usa-and-sun-belt-could-combine-in-pandemic-recovery/

From this article:

There have been a handful of suggested models for how to merge the two leagues.

 

I would be happy for NMSU if this realignment allows them to finally join a conference, and one that has UTEP at that. That would definitely create some questions about the survival of the WAC though.

 

 

Ultimately, this makes too much sense not too happen.

Does Joe Vandal fit?  Can Boise State block them from moving back up now?  @VandalPride97 

@boisewitha-s

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19 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

A merger between CUSA/SB and or even MW/AAC makes far more sense than the P5 splitting off completely and starting and then administrating a replacement for the NCAA. 

The game is leverage + value = contract. P5 conf/schools have high value and high leverage as a default. Some G5 schools have more value than others but none have leverage in the current arrangement. You create leverage by controlling more of the pool of available content. Even if the agreement is really just for rights with some scheduling agreements thrown in and not an actual merger it would likely lead to a higher per unit rate in the resulting contract. 

I think you have it backwards.  If you want leverage, follow the money.  Who has all the money?  The P5 conferences.  Now add on top of that allowing colleges to pay players, and it makes even less sense for the vast majority of G5 schools to be in the same FBS boat as BiG, SEC, B12, P12, ACC football.  I am sure there is a list of 5-10 that might be able to make the jump should a split happen, probably closer to 5, but that's it.  MWC/CUSA/Sun Belt/independents can slice and dice teams all they want, but the real money lies in the power conferences and it's only a matter of time before a split in football happens.  Oly sports are a whole different topic.

G5 has no leverage in football.  Content?  ESPN can schedule games whenever they want and teams will jump.  ESPN2 at 10pm EST on a Friday night?  Sign us up.   It is what it is.  I still love watching mid major teams in the west, but i don't pretend i am watching high level SEC or BiG football either.  It's not that level, and it's not FCS.  It's something in between.  The networks know this, attendance reflects this, and athletic budgets/coaching salaries reflect it.  It's all a guessing game, but i don't see realignment at the G5 level happening before realignment/new division of football at the P5 level.    

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4 minutes ago, alum93 said:

I think you have it backwards.  If you want leverage, follow the money.  Who has all the money?  The P5 conferences.  Now add on top of that allowing colleges to pay players, and it makes even less sense for the vast majority of G5 schools to be in the same FBS boat as BiG, SEC, B12, P12, ACC football.  I am sure there is a list of 5-10 that might be able to make the jump should a split happen, probably closer to 5, but that's it.  MWC/CUSA/Sun Belt/independents can slice and dice teams all they want, but the real money lies in the power conferences and it's only a matter of time before a split in football happens.  Oly sports are a whole different topic.

G5 has no leverage in football.  Content?  ESPN can schedule games whenever they want and teams will jump.  ESPN2 at 10pm EST on a Friday night?  Sign us up.   It is what it is.  I still love watching mid major teams in the west, but i don't pretend i am watching high level SEC or BiG football either.  It's not that level, and it's not FCS.  It's something in between.  The networks know this, attendance reflects this, and athletic budgets/coaching salaries reflect it.  It's all a guessing game, but i don't see realignment at the G5 level happening before realignment/new division of football at the P5 level.    

I pointed out that P5 conferences already have all the leverage. I also don't make the argument anywhere in my post about the G5 content all being at a similar level to P5 content .

My point is in the end game of survival and limited options, merging is a survival strategy that provides additional leverage, albeit minor, that didn't exist before. The mergers would reduce available content sources outside the P5 from 5 to 3, and specifically in the case of a MW/AAC merger and SB/CUSA mergers it would consolidate content most desired (outside the power group of course). A merger between SB/CUSA, considering the level of their current tv deal seems to, at least in my opinion, not expose them to much risk for their gamble as they are very unlikely to get even less money than they already do. 

In short, making changes to tweak and optimize value is not that same as being delusional enough to think it magically will make these conferences P5 level.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, #1Stunner said:

What about their basketball and other sports though?

I know their basketball has always been mediocre.  Not sure about their other sports though....

You think the PAC12 would let them stay?

This is what I always think about when people talk about PAC schools leaving for BIG/B12, what happens to their olys? I doubt PAC would let them stay so off to the WCC if you're USC?

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

I pointed out that P5 conferences already have all the leverage. I also don't make the argument anywhere in my post about the G5 content all being at a similar level to P5 content .

My point is in the end game of survival and limited options, merging is a survival strategy that provides additional leverage, albeit minor, that didn't exist before. The mergers would reduce available content sources outside the P5 from 5 to 3, and specifically in the case of a MW/AAC merger and SB/CUSA mergers it would consolidate content most desired (outside the power group of course). A merger between SB/CUSA, considering the level of their current tv deal seems to, at least in my opinion, not expose them to much risk for their gamble as they are very unlikely to get even less money than they already do. 

In short, making changes to tweak and optimize value is not that same as being delusional enough to think it magically will make these conferences P5 level.

I misread your other post.  My bad.  With respect to CUSA/Sun Belt,  i don't see it happening.  Well, not before P5 changes.  I don't think conferences will remain as is across the board more than a few more years.  BiG, SEC, and ACC are relatively safe and stable.  I think something will happen with B12 or P12, and then all heck will break loose again.  It will just take one big shoe, a Texas or Oklahoma or USC, to start the ball rolling.   

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1 hour ago, alum93 said:

I misread your other post.  My bad.  With respect to CUSA/Sun Belt,  i don't see it happening.  Well, not before P5 changes.  I don't think conferences will remain as is across the board more than a few more years.  BiG, SEC, and ACC are relatively safe and stable.  I think something will happen with B12 or P12, and then all heck will break loose again.  It will just take one big shoe, a Texas or Oklahoma or USC, to start the ball rolling.   

All good, and you're probably right since any moves pre-realignment at the top could lead to another round of changes for the conferences below. The most likely catalyst would be P5 becoming P4 but not separating as well as expansion of the playoff to 8-10 teams.

Everyone is talking about 8 team expanded CFP, but I think the magic number is actually 10. In the example of the P4, the division champs become the the top 8 seeds of the CFP. Seeds 9 & 10 are basically given to the top 2 champs from the whatever the G5 will look like at that time. Then you have a play-in round where 9 & 10 play 7 & 8. Top 6 seeds essentially have first round bye in this model. And yes it would kill conference championships because that will be the only way to prevent a low quality P5 from making it into the semi's or beyond because the whole conference is down (See PAC rn as an example of this). This would please the SEC/BIG assuming the $$ is right because they could still end up with 2 schools from their conference in the semi/championship. 

Still though, CUSA/SB having such poor contracts really allows them to consider a major experiment in a way the MW and AAC just can't right now.

 

 

 

 

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