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mugtang

More Suicides than Coronavirus Deaths in this CA city

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https://abc7news.com/amp/suicide-covid-19-rates-during-pandemic-coronavirus-death-by/6201962/?__twitter_impression=true
 

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Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus.

"Personally I think it's time," said Dr. Mike deBoisblanc. "I think, originally, this (the shelter-in-place order) was put in place to flatten the curve and to make sure hospitals have the resources to take care of COVID patients.We have the current resources to do that and our other community health is suffering."

The numbers are unprecedented, he said.

"We've never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time," he said. "I mean we've seen a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks."

 

Is it time to lift all the lockdowns?

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19 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I’m serious about what I’m about to say. Mental health is obviously so important in crazy times like this. And the more normalcy we can return safely will do nothing but help. Sports have always been an escape for people at the end of the day to get their minds off life stress. Some people go to a bar, talk to the bartender about what’s up and sometimes the bartender is a psychologist that’ll listen and give suggestions to lonely people that don’t have anyone at home to talk to. 

But we need to get fanless sports going STAT.  And I think if the G5’s need some help with no ticket sales to make a season work, then it should be included in the next stimulus package. If only 50% of ticket revenue is the best they can do, do it. Let’s get our sports back. I remember back around 1990 when there was the NFL strike and entire teams consisted of replacement scabs, it was still 50 times better than nothing. It was more like college teams in pro uniforms, but even if they were all lower quality, it wasn’t that noticeable most of the time. No fans will suck, but who knows, maybe in November and December fans could be allowed in with masks and temp screening at the gate. 

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To all board members, study the Spanish Flu epidemic. Please 

Stay at home orders, social distancing, and everything else we are going through does bite. However, a World at War that was not informed of the pandemic, coupled with denial, a reluctance to social distance and other measures to prevent the spread of that flu led to far more deaths than necessary. 

Forty to One Hundred million people died of the Spanish Flu. Far more than died in WW1. In America alone, 675,000 died. More than all the American war deaths in the 20th Century combined.

The death rates for Covid and the Spanish Flu are similiar. About 6%. Death rates for the common flu are about .1%. This will not go away until a vaccine is discovered and marketed. A vaccine for the Spanish Flu was not worked out until 1940. Only essential government personnel and the military were provided the vaccine in WW2. It was not made widely available to the public until after WW2.

The biggest difference between the two was the Spanish Flu killed far more people in their 20's than it did the elderly or other at risk groups.

Going back to normal may help economic recovery and mental health, but it will cause the Covid to spread faster and wider than it is now.

 

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3 minutes ago, Nevada Convert said:

I’m serious about what I’m about to say. Mental health is obviously so important in crazy times like this. And the more normalcy we can return safely will do nothing but help. Sports have always been an escape for people at the end of the day to get their minds off life stress. Some people go to a bar, talk to the bartender about what’s up and sometimes the bartender is a psychologist that’ll listen and give suggestions to lonely people that don’t have anyone at home to talk to. 

But we need to get fanless sports going STAT.  And I think if the G5’s need some help with no ticket sales to make a season work, then it should be included in the next stimulus package. If only 50% of ticket revenue is the best they can do, do it. Let’s get our sports back. I remember back around 1990 when there was the NFL strike and entire teams consisted of replacement scabs, it was still 50 times better than nothing. It was more like college teams in pro uniforms, but even if they were all lower quality, it wasn’t that noticeable most of the time. No fans will suck, but who knows, maybe in November and December fans could be allowed in with masks and temp screening at the gate. 

Sports serve as a good distraction. 

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6 minutes ago, Spaztecs said:

To all board members, study the Spanish Flu epidemic. Please 

Stay at home orders, social distancing, and everything else we are going through does bite. However, a World at War that was not informed of the pandemic, coupled with denial, a reluctance to social distance and other measures to prevent the spread of that flu led to far more deaths than necessary. 

Forty to One Hundred million people died of the Spanish Flu. Far more than died in WW1. In America alone, 675,000 died. More than all the American war deaths in the 20th Century combined.

The death rates for Covid and the Spanish Flu are similiar. About 6%. Death rates for the common flu are about .1%. This will not go away until a vaccine is discovered and marketed. A vaccine for the Spanish Flu was not worked out until 1940. Only essential government personnel and the military were provided the vaccine in WW2. It was not made widely available to the public until after WW2.

 

We have no idea what the death rate will be for covid until tons more testing is done. The death rate for covid is likely to be less than 1% and probably at 0.1% if you subtract the nursing home deaths which is looking like 50% of the deaths in the US and Europe.

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6 minutes ago, Spaztecs said:

To all board members, study the Spanish Flu epidemic. Please 

Stay at home orders, social distancing, and everything else we are going through does bite. However, a World at War that was not informed of the pandemic, coupled with denial, a reluctance to social distance and other measures to prevent the spread of that flu led to far more deaths than necessary. 

Forty to One Hundred million people died of the Spanish Flu. Far more than died in WW1. In America alone, 675,000 died. More than all the American war deaths in the 20th Century combined.

The death rates for Covid and the Spanish Flu are similiar. About 6%. Death rates for the common flu are about .1%. This will not go away until a vaccine is discovered and marketed. A vaccine for the Spanish Flu was not worked out until 1940. Only essential government personnel and the military were provided the vaccine in WW2. It was not made widely available to the public until after WW2.

 

They’re not even close to similar.  20% of New York City is estimated to have coronavirus antibodies.  6D203E17-BBC0-43EB-8929-BB348994E823.jpeg

That’s approximately 1.68 million people who have been infected in New York City and recovered. Under 16,000 have died in New York City and half of those were in nursing homes.  That’s a mortality rate of under 1%.  

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1 minute ago, mugtang said:

They’re not even close to similar.  20% of New York City is estimated to have coronavirus antibodies.  6D203E17-BBC0-43EB-8929-BB348994E823.jpeg

That’s approximately 1.68 million people who have been infected in New York City and recovered. Under 16,000 have died in New York City and half of those were in nursing homes.  That’s a mortality rate of under 1%.  

Exactly, and when you subtract out the nursing home disasters, it’ll be way down close to the flu. 

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33 minutes ago, mugtang said:

Anecdotal evidence from one area of the country. It looks like for the past several years there have been somewhere on the order of 45K suicide deaths per year, more than twice that have died from Covid.

There are arguments for and against opening stuff up, and it may indeed be time, but lets use hard data to determine this, not anecdotal evidence from one doctor.

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1 minute ago, Nevada Convert said:

Exactly, and when you subtract out the nursing home disasters, it’ll be way down close to the flu. 

When we did these lockdowns we were working with limited information on a new disease we didn’t understand.   2 months later we have a much better grasp of this disease, how it works, is transmitted and have better treatment methods. The whole point of these lockdowns was to make sure the hospitals weren’t overrun. They weren’t.  New York City didn’t even need the hospital ship they requested.  Nobody has been denied a ventilator.  We have more ventilators than we need and we’re giving them away to other countries now.  Plus we may never have a vaccine. I don’t think we need to be having large crowds at sporting events anytime soon but there’s no reason campgrounds can’t be opened, gyms can’t be opened, etc. 

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6 minutes ago, Mano said:

Anecdotal evidence from one area of the country. It looks like for the past several years there have been somewhere on the order of 45K suicide deaths per year, more than twice that have died from Covid.

There are arguments for and against opening stuff up, and it may indeed be time, but lets use hard data to determine this, not anecdotal evidence from one doctor.

It’s not just 1 doctor though. 
 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/04/847841791/flood-of-calls-and-texts-to-crisis-hotlines-reflects-americans-rising-anxiety

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The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration saw a fivefold increase at its National Helpline between the beginning and end of March. The Crisis Text Line says its volumes are up 40% in the pandemic, to about 100,000 conversations a month.

https://wlos.com/news/coronavirus/letter-from-doctors-calls-on-president-trump-to-end-lockdown
 

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The letter goes on to say: "The millions of casualties of a continued shutdown will be hiding in plain sight, but they will be called alcoholism, homelessness, suicide, heart attack, stroke, or kidney failure. In youths it will be called financial instability, unemployment, despair, drug addiction, unplanned pregnancies, poverty, and abuse."

 

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-antonio/news/2020/05/13/texas-demand-for-mental-health-resources-soars-during-pandemic
 

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As the coronavirus pandemic persists, you might be experiencing fear, grief, even loneliness. Layoffs, self-isolation and adapting to a new normal are just a few factors that people are struggling with.

Crisis hotlines across Texas are seeing a jump in calls.

“I think we’re also seeing some people who are navigating some mental health issues in ways they haven’t in the past,” said Karen Ranus, executive director of the National Alliance on Mental Health's Central Texas chapter. “And that makes total sense, because you have a lot of people dealing with stress and anxiety, but also a collective sense of grief.”

I hate to quote from this source but https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/post/suicide-experts-seeing-worrying-signs-during-pandemic#stream/0

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The global pandemic is putting a strain on Americans’ mental health. There’s been a surge of calls to crisis lines in the past two months. Add a spike in gun sales to that , and experts say we may be at risk of a suicide epidemic.

Tiny Montpelier, Idaho, may already be taking the brunt of pandemic fallout. In that town of just 2,500 and the surrounding Bear Lake Valley — a picturesque, remote corner of the state known for its namesake turquoise lake — there were five suicides in a three-week span of April. Another two deaths are being investigated.

“With it to happen within one month, I mean, that’s definitely unheard of,” Bear Lake County Coroner Chad Walker said.

 

And so on. 

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15 minutes ago, mugtang said:

When we did these lockdowns we were working with limited information on a new disease we didn’t understand.   2 months later we have a much better grasp of this disease, how it works, is transmitted and have better treatment methods. The whole point of these lockdowns was to make sure the hospitals weren’t overrun. They weren’t.  New York City didn’t even need the hospital ship they requested.  Nobody has been denied a ventilator.  We have more ventilators than we need and we’re giving them away to other countries now.  Plus we may never have a vaccine. I don’t think we need to be having large crowds at sporting events anytime soon but there’s no reason campgrounds can’t be opened, gyms can’t be opened, etc. 

We probably will have a vaccine eventually because it does illicit a pretty strong immune response unlike other viruses like HIV that had a weak response and we were therefore never able to develop a vaccine. 

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Just now, Nevada Convert said:

We probably will have a vaccine because it does illicit a pretty strong immune response unlike other viruses like HIV that had a weak response and we were therefore never able to develop a vaccine. 

I’m not going to pretend to understand the underlying science of the vaccine and how it works but I understand the numbers.  But I do remember hearing they were very close to a SARS vaccine back in 2003 but it got shelved as SARS died out so maybe we had a head start and will get one soon (relatively speaking). 

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54 minutes ago, mugtang said:

They’re not even close to similar.  20% of New York City is estimated to have coronavirus antibodies.  6D203E17-BBC0-43EB-8929-BB348994E823.jpeg

That’s approximately 1.68 million people who have been infected in New York City and recovered. Under 16,000 have died in New York City and half of those were in nursing homes.  That’s a mortality rate of under 1%.  

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

Last updated on May 21, 2020

TOTAL CASES1,551,09522,860 New Cases*
TOTAL DEATHS93,0611,397 New Deaths*
  • *Compared to yesterday's data
  • About

That's a death rate of 5.99 %.

I'll stick with CDC data thank you.

Yes, Covid-19 does impact the elderly and those with underlying conditions the most. People like my wife.

But, hey we're elderly and are a burden on the system anyway. Sucking up SSN, Medicare, and whatever other entitlements Uncle Sam wants to suck out of your paychecks.

Hey, what the hell, let this thing rip through America. It is probably God's and Donald Trump's Will that we eliminate those sucking off the government teet.

 

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36 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I’m not going to pretend to understand the underlying science of the vaccine and how it works but I understand the numbers.  But I do remember hearing they were very close to a SARS vaccine back in 2003 but it got shelved as SARS died out so maybe we had a head start and will get one soon (relatively speaking). 

Here’s the quick and short of it. There’s a lot of different types of vaccines made to fight different pathogens, but the most crucial factor in all of them is there has to be enough of a immune response to create the T & B Lymphocytes memory cells that lie there with memory to know how to destroy the same pathogen it previously did when the vaccine was given (a simulated infection). This kind of vaccine would be a simulated infection thus creating the T & B memory cells. With no memory cells, you have no custom defense to kill the pathogen. It’s all about the memory cells being created.

Some vaccines have to resort to giving a person a weakened version of the live pathogen to generate enough of an immune response to create the T & B memory cells needed to protect you in the future. In this case using live pathogens, it’s a real but weak infection that some people with weak immune systems can’t take.

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18 minutes ago, Spaztecs said:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

Last updated on May 21, 2020

TOTAL CASES1,551,09522,860 New Cases*
TOTAL DEATHS93,0611,397 New Deaths*
  • *Compared to yesterday's data
  • About

That's a death rate of 5.99 %.

I'll stick with CDC data thank you.

Yes, Covid-19 does impact the elderly and those with underlying conditions the most. People like my wife.

But, hey we're elderly and are a burden on the system anyway. Sucking up SSN, Medicare, and whatever other entitlements Uncle Sam wants to suck out of your paychecks.

Hey, what the hell, let this thing rip through America. It is probably God's and Donald Trump's Will that we eliminate those sucking off the government teet.

 

Right. I get that. But those are only confirmed cases and almost all of those were symptomatic.  The antibody tests show more people in New York were infected with Covid-19 than there are confirmed cases in the United States.  I think most reasonable people would agree that the death rate from the CDC data of 5.9% is more likely than not significantly overstated. 
 

As for the rest of your comment :rolleyes:

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There are no good solutions for this virus. You CANNOT stay sheltered forever unless you are retired. People have families to take care of. Businesses have already opened and people have started returning to work using precautions as available. So far things are relatively stable. Let’s hope they stay that way.

If we see another big spike the country may as well bend over and kiss our ass good bye because it’s going to be a colossal catastrophe. Continuation of an already long shelter is not sustainable. 

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The virus has KILLED 100,000 Americans so far.   That is WITH all the restrictions you hate so much.   Imagine what would have happened with no restrictions.   We may have already eclipsed the Spanish flu deaths.  How about instead of Trump lamenting the stay at home orders he spends time putting in hard work to get testing and contact tracing in place so people can return to work.  Imagine if Trump would have put in the hard work to do this in February..we would be open.   Instead of implementing a strenuous strategy,  he chases silver bullets and miracle cures.   There will not be an easy way to reopen without testing and tracing.  We all wondered when Trump would be tested... for the first the years he could manage by tweet and only plan for the next news cycle and the bureaucracy would largely still hold things together.  He now has a real crisis on his hands with no easy answer and his usual distractions aren't saving him. 

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25 minutes ago, Akkula said:

The virus has KILLED 100,000 Americans so far.   That is WITH all the restrictions you hate so much.   Imagine what would have happened with no restrictions.   We may have already eclipsed the Spanish flu deaths.  How about instead of Trump lamenting the stay at home orders he spends time putting in hard work to get testing and contact tracing in place so people can return to work.  Imagine if Trump would have put in the hard work to do this in February..we would be open.   Instead of implementing a strenuous strategy,  he chases silver bullets and miracle cures.   There will not be an easy way to reopen without testing and tracing.  We all wondered when Trump would be tested... for the first the years he could manage by tweet and only plan for the next news cycle and the bureaucracy would largely still hold things together.  He now has a real crisis on his hands with no easy answer and his usual distractions aren't saving him. 

You need to get a grip and stop being a hack. There wasn’t anyone in Feb that thought the world would be affected, especially when you had China telling the WHO that it was not people to people contagious. And the WHO repeated this lie to the world. If you think any Dem would’ve done better, that is impossible because of the way they were reacting to it. Look at the things Fauci, Cuomo etc. were saying in Feb. and that’s all you need to know about how much later they would’ve taken it seriously. 

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40 minutes ago, Nevada Convert said:

You need to get a grip and stop being a hack. There wasn’t anyone in Feb that thought the world would be affected, especially when you had China telling the WHO that it was not people to people contagious. And the WHO repeated this lie to the world. If you think any Dem would’ve done better, that is impossible because of the way they were reacting to it. Look at the things Fauci, Cuomo etc. were saying in Feb. and that’s all you need to know about how much later they would’ve taken it seriously. 

54,000 lives could have been saved if Trump would have taken action two weeks earlier.   He was busy with happy talk and calling the virus a hoax.  With fewer cases, we could reopen earlier.  

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/21/860077940/u-s-could-have-saved-36-000-lives-if-social-distancing-started-1-week-earlier-st

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