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mugtang

More Suicides than Coronavirus Deaths in this CA city

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2 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

I don't think we should manage this as if the whole country lives in Manhattan.  Metro areas that rely heavily on mass transit and live on top of each other might have to come up with another solution.

Agree wholeheartedly. While abdicating any kind of leadership role IMO, the CDC was certainly right in that one size doesn't fit all, even within the same state.

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Just now, Bob said:

you and your kind just make shit up to scare people. Why not multiply it by 12 so you get a bigger number. It would look scarier.

Yeah... like numbers... and math. :blink:

Have you ever even seen a calculator, Bob? Because you act and post as if they don't sell them on the front range.

To get from 20 (percent) to 100 (percent) you multiple by five, dumbass. F*ck you're stupid... did you attend Boise back when it was still just a trucking school? Or are you like blue, in that you weren't smart enough for all that high-falutin' learnin' but you just had an infatuation with donkeys?

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3 minutes ago, Bob said:

Reporting from an honest source:

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-new-study-demonstrates-low-coronavirus-fatality-rate-outside-nursing-homes/

 

"To begin with, the media and politicians are still promoting high overall infection fatality rates (IFR), such as the World Health Organization’s estimate of 3.4%. But we’ve seen enough random sampling from serological antibody tests, corroborated by hard data from prisons and navy ships, to demonstrate that the virus spread earlier, wider, and more asymptomatically than previously thought, thereby driving the fatality rate much lower. A new analysis averaging all the major antibody tests indicates that the average overall fatality rate (including nursing home deaths) is 0.2%. Why have our policies not been updated to reflect that reality?

This week, Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis published a preprint (before peer review) analysis averaging the fatality rates reflected in the extrapolation of all the serology tests with a sample size larger than 500 and that were randomly sampled (as opposed to health care workers). These tests measure the seroprevalence – the prevalence of antibodies for the virus in a given population – through some degree of random sampling.

Based on these random samples, the Stanford professor of medicine, epidemiology, biomedical data science, and statistics concluded that the fatality rate ranges from 0.02% to 0.40%. That is a range of seven times less deadly or 2.8 times more deadly than seasonal influenza.

The mean IFR is 0.2%, right around the result we saw from the first U.S. serology studies in Santa Clara, Los Angeles, and Miami Dade Counties. That is 17 times less deadly than what the World Health Organization originally predicted and 4.5 times less deadly than the Imperial College study assumed!"

I provided inks to documents from both NIH and CDC. But thank God your f*cktarded ass was here to provide us "honest" information from a blog entitled, "Conservative Views."

 

 

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17 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Yeah... like numbers... and math. :blink:

Have you ever even seen a calculator, Bob? Because you act and post as if they don't sell them on the front range.

To get from 20 (percent) to 100 (percent) you multiple by five, dumbass. F*ck you're stupid... did you attend Boise back when it was still just a trucking school? Or are you like blue, in that you weren't smart enough for all that high-falutin' learnin' but you just had an infatuation with donkeys?

I’ve been hesitant because anyone can make a mistake, but I should point out in an earlier post you were off by a factor of ten in one of your statistical analyses. 

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46 minutes ago, ridgeview2 said:

With so many counties giving the middle finger to Newsom and opening up early, he's trying to save face by changing the guidelines so they now meet the requirements. In my area we had all of our parks and playground equipment taped off, but lately I've seen families simply pull the tape off and use the equipment with nobody stopping them. We are expecting a high of 103 next week and no cooling centers will be open. This summer will be very deadly for those that don't have proper air conditioning.  

Yes, I also mentioned something along these lines a couple weeks ago. I was in the Valley during the summer of '06. That heat wave killed a lot of people. It also killed a lot of livestock, IIRC. If we get a similar heat wave this year, and then see some rough fire conditions late into fall, you're going to see some some very real balancing of death counts. You can't have a stay-at-home order when it's too hot to stay at home or when PG&E has shut off your power. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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4 hours ago, mugtang said:

The whole point of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve.  We’ve done that.  Now the goal posts have been moved to save every life.  That’s not reasonable and these lockdowns aren’t sustainable. 

What I am saying is that instead of lamenting and bitching about the lockdown Trump could have spent that time getting testing and contact tracing in place... because lockdowns aren't sustainable.   But he prefers to use the virus and the response as some kind of wedge issue.   How long have we been complaining about reopening now?  If he wants it so bad  why not put in the effort?  Virus response by tweet isn't working.  Nobody is going to go to restaurants if they don't feel safe. 

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Cons are all assuming the economy is like an apple store line the night before a major launch.  All you have to do is throw open the doors and you get an explosion of buying.   What happens if this magic bullet easy solution is just another panacea and there is no huge line waiting to buy,  buy,  buy?

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13 hours ago, Mano said:

Anecdotal evidence from one area of the country. It looks like for the past several years there have been somewhere on the order of 45K suicide deaths per year, more than twice that have died from Covid.

There are arguments for and against opening stuff up, and it may indeed be time, but lets use hard data to determine this, not anecdotal evidence from one doctor.

It's not just anecdotal evidence from one doctor.

Statistics have consistently shown that for young adults, which is the group referenced in the report, the death rate from COVID-19 for those without a compromised immune system, obesity, etc. is near zero. Ergo, the government's one-size-fits-all approach to social distancing was initially understandable but it's now crossed the line into ridiculous.

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36 minutes ago, Bob said:

I understand why you used 5 you +++++tard. Multiplying it by a different number would be a prime example of the intellectual dishonesty you are your people thrive on and have perpetrated throughout this man-made disaster.

 

Are we approaching the 2.2m deaths you promised?

Bzzzt. You seem to have a boner for misrepresenting science, math, and others' POV. A very gay and totally misinformed boner. 

I've even spoon-fed you multiple links and quotes of the Cheeto®-encrusted nuts you so preciously hug giving that same number dipshit. But since you apparently have the memory of a f*cking goldfish, here ya go:

Screen-Shot-2020-05-22-at-11-11-58-AM.pn

And stop telling me I'm misrepresenting the data when I've provided credible f*cking source inks to every hard figure I've posted. 

 

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31 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

I’ve been hesitant because anyone can make a mistake, but I should point out in an earlier post you were off by a factor of ten in one of your statistical analyses. 

No doubt. We all make mistakes, and from time to time, dumb ones at that. I'm no exception. 

One of my favorite such stories (link):

Quote

In September of 1999, after almost 10 months of travel to Mars, the Mars Climate Orbiter burned and broke into pieces. On a day when NASA engineers were expecting to celebrate, the ground reality turned out to be completely different, all because someone failed to use the right units, i.e., the metric units! The Scientific American Space Lab made a brief but interesting video on this very topic.

 

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Thread went as expected...

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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5 minutes ago, toonkee said:

You knew exactly what you were doing.

:ph34r:

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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20 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

There are no good solutions for this virus. You CANNOT stay sheltered forever unless you are retired. People have families to take care of. Businesses have already opened and people have started returning to work using precautions as available. So far things are relatively stable. Let’s hope they stay that way.

If we see another big spike the country may as well bend over and kiss our ass good bye because it’s going to be a colossal catastrophe. Continuation of an already long shelter is not sustainable. 

Exactly. There will not be anymore sizable shutdowns. If so, then there won’t be any revenue to fund the normal healthcare system, and routine surgeries and treatments will come to a halt, and people will be dying of the most simple conditions like they did 100 years ago. 

I remember when I was little I used to ask my mom if she could buy me the coolest toys and she’d tell me that we couldn’t afford it, and I would say to her “Why can’t you just right a check for it? Like a check was cash itself and a never ending book of them. But it sure seems like a lot of the younger generation just doesn’t get that there will be a horrible price to pay if our debt continues on its pace for too much longer. It’s just a harmless spreadsheet number to them with no consequences. Bernie Sanders supporters are ALL that way. Yeah, let’s just increase our yearly spending budget from $4 trillion to $12 trillion to $15 trillion and slow the economy to a grinding halt at the same time. The fiscal conservatives can’t even balance the budget these days, so let’s just give the car fvcking keys to Bernie to sort things out and make life better.  LOL.
OK, OK, I may have offended some Bernie supporters here and for that, I do genuinely apologize that I haven’t done it sooner, more often and more intensely. ❤️U  😂

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On 5/22/2020 at 6:06 AM, modestobulldog said:

Mug has already addressed your misunderstanding of the numbers.

As for your personal situation, it sounds like you have the financial resources to quarantine yourself and your family. You should do that. The smart way forward is to increase protection at nursing and similar facilities, people with health risks should isolate / quarantine at home. Anybody else who can financially afford to and wants to stay at home, should stay at home. It's a free country. The rest of the country should get on with life, no collecting unemployment if your employer calls you back to work. Take responsibility, do things to protect yourself the best you can, but get out there and enjoy life. Be sure to frequent local businesses, they could really use the help right now. Quarantining the healthy is asinine.

Agreed on every point but two.

I am not financially well off. I lost 25% of my winter income when the Ski resorts closed early. I am surviving on about $600 month, plus the wife's SS, and my one stimulus check. I am in the same boat as many. Hurting for work and money.

I do agree the healthy should go about their business. But, with caution and respect. Worst case scenario for me is to pick up the virus from some knucklehead. Then bring it home to the misses. I will survive it, but she won't.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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