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mugtang

More Suicides than Coronavirus Deaths in this CA city

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2 minutes ago, tspoke said:

But isn't everywhere beginning to open up. I read that every state has begun loosening restrictions by this weekend. So I  don't know what the argument is? We aren't opening up fast enough? I think we need to continue to open up but slowly in phases. I think we are going about it the right way. Especially what I am seeing around me. Can't speak as much for elsewhere.

Contra Costa County and the other Bay Area counties just started to allow curbside pickup for retail a couple days ago. They are probably still among the strictest counties in the country outside of maybe NYC and probably have stricter restrictions right now than much of the country has had at any time thus far.

Also, my parks in everytown USA are still taped off with the swings pad locked. It is going to be 108 next week. Will they finally let the kids risk the heat stroke and assume that an open playground in a SJ Valley heat wave is probably the least hospitable environment that exists for a virus? My guess is no. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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15 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Said this a week or so ago; I think governments need to start planning on how to mitigate the spread without shelter in place orders on the books. Humans gonna human, and humans don’t want to be locked up forever. 

I totally agree with this. I would just add that they should have been doing that from the start, which is what I was saying 10 weeks ago. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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Just now, smltwnrckr said:

I totally agree with this. I would just add that they should have been doing that from the start, which is what I was saying 10 weeks ago. 

Well as you know, I disagree on that and I do think these shelter in place orders were needed. But I don’t really want to relitigate that because it’s exhausting lol.
 

That being said, as someone that believes they were needed, they have served their purpose and it’s time to lift them. 

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15 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Contra Costa County and the other Bay Area counties just started to allow curbside pickup for retail a couple days ago. They are probably still among the strictest counties in the country outside of maybe NYC and probably have stricter restrictions right now than much of the country has had at any time thus far.

Also, my parks in everytown USA are still taped off with the swings pad locked. It is going to be 108 next week. Will they finally let the kids risk the heat stroke and assume that an open playground in a SJ Valley heat wave is probably the least hospitable environment that exists for a virus? My guess is no. 

I am glad I moved to Utah.  I lived in Pleasanton, CA in Alameda county, just by there.

 

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10 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Well as you know, I disagree on that and I do think these shelter in place orders were needed. But I don’t really want to relitigate that because it’s exhausting lol.
 

That being said, as someone that believes they were needed, they have served their purpose and it’s time to lift them. 

Well, I'm not arguing that they weren't needed (or that they were needed). I agree there isn't much point in relitigating the shut downs right now, though we'll certainly see them relitigated when cases start going up again. 

But It is clearly a failure on the part of the government that leaders at all levels were not immediately planning for, as you put it very well, how to mitigate the spread without shelter in place orders on the books. They should have been planning for that, and planning hard, as soon as they did put the house arrests on the books. The day they issued stay-at-home orders, they should have assumed that there was a hard expiration date on those orders. It is not clear that they have done that much at all. I was grumpy about many of the restrictions at the time, but I was much more concerned with the fact that they were clearly indefinite and there clearly wasn't an exist strategy or any will to get to one. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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7 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

I am glad I moved to Utah.  I lived in Pleasanton, CA in Alameda county, just by there.

 

Pleasanton is nice. Expensive, but nice. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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23 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

I am glad I moved to Utah.  I lived in Pleasanton, CA in Alameda county, just by there.

 

Aah, John Maddens home. We moved from Livermore to Boise forty years ago. Last summer we were in the Bay Area for my wife’s fifty year reunion. The congestion on 580 and 680 was horrendous. Commuting in that traffic every day takes a toll. I’m also glad we left. 

Regarding coming out of sheltering I’m not sure how much can be done other than practicing distancing and wearing masks and trying to avoid large crowds from an individual perspective. 

Like Utah, Idaho has handled this pretty well but we have a small population compared to most other states. 

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11 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

We have no idea what the death rate will be for covid until tons more testing is done. The death rate for covid is likely to be less than 1% and probably at 0.1% if you subtract the nursing home deaths which is looking like 50% of the deaths in the US and Europe.

This isn't accurate, as we have more access to more valid data points to measure and determine a (crude) case fatality rate than we have anytime in the past.

And the CFR for COVID-19 runs about 6.5% worldwide. By comparison, the estimated case fatality rate for the Spanish Flu was somewhere around/north of 2.5% (link).

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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38 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Contra Costa County and the other Bay Area counties just started to allow curbside pickup for retail a couple days ago. They are probably still among the strictest counties in the country outside of maybe NYC and probably have stricter restrictions right now than much of the country has had at any time thus far.

Also, my parks in everytown USA are still taped off with the swings pad locked. It is going to be 108 next week. Will they finally let the kids risk the heat stroke and assume that an open playground in a SJ Valley heat wave is probably the least hospitable environment that exists for a virus? My guess is no. 

With so many counties giving the middle finger to Newsom and opening up early, he's trying to save face by changing the guidelines so they now meet the requirements. In my area we had all of our parks and playground equipment taped off, but lately I've seen families simply pull the tape off and use the equipment with nobody stopping them. We are expecting a high of 103 next week and no cooling centers will be open. This summer will be very deadly for those that don't have proper air conditioning.  

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7 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

This isn't accurate, as we have more access to more valid data points to measure and determine a (crude) case fatality rate than we have anytime in the past.

And the CFR for COVID-19 runs about 6.5% worldwide. By comparison, the estimated case fatality rate for the Spanish Flu was somewhere around/north of 2.5% (link).

You aren’t allowing for those that had the virus but were never tested and studies have shown they range from five to fifty times those that were tested positive. There are no good statistics on how many were either asymptomatic or just rode it out at home. 

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12 hours ago, mugtang said:

They’re not even close to similar.  20% of New York City is estimated to have coronavirus antibodies.  6D203E17-BBC0-43EB-8929-BB348994E823.jpeg

That’s approximately 1.68 million people who have been infected in New York City and recovered. Under 16,000 have died in New York City and half of those were in nursing homes.  That’s a mortality rate of under 1%.  

People keep conflating mortality rate with case fatality rate. They are two different metrics. 

As far as the takeaway from the above graph, here's how you need to consider it: a return to pre-lockdown life (read: no mitigation) means that prevalence rate in NYC will scale to 100%. So multiply the deaths in NYC to date by 5 to get an estimate of approx. 80,000 deaths.

That translates to a death rate in NYC (10 deaths per 1000) more than twice that of the Spanish Flu (4.7 deaths per 1,000) did in NYC (link).

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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2 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

You aren’t allowing for those that had the virus but were never tested and studies have shown they range from five to fifty times those that were tested positive. 

Again: you're conflating case fatality rate with mortality rate.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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Just now, soupslam1 said:

Even mortality rates are in question. 

Mortality rates are much harder to figure because you have to have an accurate estimate of prevalence rates, which is itself a function of wide scale (random) antibody testing.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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8 minutes ago, Bob said:

He's brainwashed. Not worth the effort to explain. 

Go lick a shopping cart covered in dicks, Boob. You wouldn't know a fact if it introduced itself as one on its way out the door after banging your wife.

I have forgotten more about the epidemiology in the last week alone than you will ever know or understand in the rest of your nuthugging goat-f*cking life.

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3 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Go lick a shopping cart covered in dicks, Boob. You wouldn't know a fact if it introduced itself as one on its way out the door after banging your wife.

I have forgotten more about the epidemiology in the last week alone than you will ever know or understand in the rest of your nuthugging goat-f*cking life.

Even the best epidemiologists in the world have been all over the map in their predictions and I’m not blaming them. This virus has a mind all of its own. 

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13 minutes ago, ridgeview2 said:

With so many counties giving the middle finger to Newsom and opening up early, he's trying to save face by changing the guidelines so they now meet the requirements. In my area we had all of our parks and playground equipment taped off, but lately I've seen families simply pull the tape off and use the equipment with nobody stopping them. We are expecting a high of 103 next week and no cooling centers will be open. This summer will be very deadly for those that don't have proper air conditioning.  

They should.  The CDC said this week that Covid does not spread very effectively from surfaces.  People screaming for the shutdowns to continue are going to be more and more in the minority.  Cases may go up.  Deaths may go up.  But people need to go on with their lives.  If hospitalizations start to cause a problem, then make some changes.

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3 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Go lick a shopping cart covered in dicks, Boob. You wouldn't know a fact if it introduced itself as one on its way out the door after banging your wife.

I have forgotten more about the epidemiology in the last week alone than you will ever know or understand in the rest of your nuthugging goat-f*cking life.

I banged @TheSanDiegan wife like a Trash can in the Astros dugout. 

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Just now, soupslam1 said:

Even the best epidemiologists in the world have been all over the map in their predictions. This virus has a mind all of its own. 

There's no question that model estimations have varied tremendously, as the causal factors (e.g., lockdowns, etc) by which said estimates are derived are dynamic by nature. So as they change, so do the modes' output.

What hasn't changed is the correlation between said causal factors and the resulting output. That is why the models' projections re once again scaling up as states relax stay at home orders.

 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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12 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

People keep conflating mortality rate with case fatality rate. They are two different metrics. 

As far as the takeaway from the above graph, here's how you need to consider it: a return to pre-lockdown life (read: no mitigation) means that prevalence rate in NYC will scale to 100%. So multiply the deaths in NYC to date by 5 to get an estimate of approx. 80,000 deaths.

That translates to a death rate in NYC (10 deaths per 1000) more than twice that of the Spanish Flu (4.7 deaths per 1,000).

I don't think we should manage this as if the whole country lives in Manhattan.  Metro areas that rely heavily on mass transit and live on top of each other might have to come up with another solution.

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