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kingpotato

MW Football Vegas Odds

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SEC Mountain:

Boise 4/9
Air Force 7/2
Wyoming 10/1
CSU 12/1
USU 14/1
UNM 66/1

big West

SDSU 3/2
UNR 3/1
Hawaii 7/2
Fresno 6/1
SJSU 7/1
UNLV 33/1

Boise almost twice "them vs the field." Wouldn't touch them. Wyoming looks like the best bet on the board, either division. A legitimate outside shot contender with 10-1 odds. They do get their four toughest games at home too.

West a lot tougher. By the odds, they don't see much deference between 1 through 5. The best bet might be the roulette outsider. On multiple occasions the West has had their division winner with a 5-3 record. Vegas thinks they are going to beat up on each other again. UNLV will almost certainly come into conference play at 0-4 and WAY under the radar. New offensive coach and they have 8 or 9 transfers coming in on defense. I'm not picking them to win, but at 33-1 it might be the best bang for your buck. 

Discuss

https://www.si.com/college/wyoming/football/its-early-but-odds-are-cowboy-football-is-no-3-in-mw-mountain-division

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14 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

SEC Mountain:

Boise 4/9
Air Force 7/2
Wyoming 10/1
CSU 12/1
USU 14/1
UNM 66/1

big West

SDSU 3/2
UNR 3/1
Hawaii 7/2
Fresno 6/1
SJSU 7/1
UNLV 33/1

Boise almost twice "them vs the field." Wouldn't touch them. Wyoming looks like the best bet on the board, either division. A legitimate outside shot contender with 10-1 odds. They do get their four toughest games at home too.

West a lot tougher. By the odds, they don't see much deference between 1 through 5. The best bet might be the roulette outsider. On multiple occasions the West has had their division winner with a 5-3 record. Vegas thinks they are going to beat up on each other again. UNLV will almost certainly come into conference play at 0-4 and WAY under the radar. New offensive coach and they have 8 or 9 transfers coming in on defense. I'm not picking them to win, but at 33-1 it might be the best bang for your buck. 

Discuss

https://www.si.com/college/wyoming/football/its-early-but-odds-are-cowboy-football-is-no-3-in-mw-mountain-division

I’m like you. I’d go with Wyoming at 10:1 odds. Not sure it’s going to make a difference though as football season is looking less possible every day. 

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I agree, that UNM should have the least expectations of doing much of anything, for really the next two years, until the new coaching staff can get their full roster of their own players. 
i would be pleasantly surprised if UNM wins the games they should win, and at least be competitive in the others.  .500 in any of the first two years, would be a huge step forward.

"Make a mistake once and it becomes a lesson, make the same mistake twice and it becomes a choice."
 

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15 minutes ago, LoboMan59 said:

I agree, that UNM should have the least expectations of doing much of anything, for really the next two years, until the new coaching staff can get their full roster of their own players. 
i would be pleasantly surprised if UNM wins the games they should win, and at least be competitive in the others.  .500 in any of the first two years, would be a huge step forward.

One of the local radio guys said he would put his money on the Lobos. You have one of the best defensive coordinators in the country and he knows this conference better than anyone. They could win ugly and get lucky. At 66-1, that's where he'd put his money. 100 bucks would get you almost 7 grand. 

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2 hours ago, kingpotato said:

One of the local radio guys said he would put his money on the Lobos. You have one of the best defensive coordinators in the country and he knows this conference better than anyone. They could win ugly and get lucky. At 66-1, that's where he'd put his money. 100 bucks would get you almost 7 grand. 

I would take those odds, again, if the coaches Had their players in place. If we ever get to playing some football, will find out how many of Davie’s leftover kids, have the will, or the strength, or the guts, to play the kind of hard nosed football, that Gonzalez and Long, want them to play.

Back before Coach Long left, he didn’t always have the most talented guys on the football field, but he had some of the toughest players. His teams may not have won the game, but the opposing team always left battered and bruised in victory... or defeat. Other coaches knew that they were stepping into a dog fight with Rocky’s teams.
 

But, what the hell... I may just put down a bill on Los Lobos after-all! I spend more than that on pizza, burgers and beer, in a week, lol.

"Make a mistake once and it becomes a lesson, make the same mistake twice and it becomes a choice."
 

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From the "so you're saying there's a chance" perspective...

LVSuperBook odds to win the conference below.

Biggest changes from chances given for the '19 season:

Better:

  • Air Force (from 50/1 last season to 7/2 this season)
  • Hawaii (300/1 to 12/1 this season)
  • SJSU (500/1 to 100/1)

Worse:

  • Utah St (7/1 last season to 50/1 this season)
  • UNLV (50/1 to 300/1)

MWCodds.PNG

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Updated MWC odds, listed in an article by Todd Dewey in today's LVRJ https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/sportsbooks-expect-unlv-to-struggle-in-marcus-arroyos-first-year-2044345/

Interesting that the only difference from LVSuperBook's numbers a month ago is that they are willing to pay less on UNLV for the random locals that decide to drop $20.

Mountain West title game (Posted at Westgate)

  • Boise State Even
  • Air Force +350
  • San Diego State 5-1
  • Hawaii 12-1
  • Fresno State 12-1
  • UNR 25-1
  • Wyoming 25-1
  • Colorado State 30-1
  • Utah State 50-1
  • San Jose State 100-1
  • UNLV 200-1
  • New Mexico 300-1
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On 5/11/2020 at 9:26 AM, BleedRebelRed said:

From the "so you're saying there's a chance" perspective...

LVSuperBook odds to win the conference below.

Biggest changes from chances given for the '19 season:

Better:

  • Air Force (from 50/1 last season to 7/2 this season)
  • Hawaii (300/1 to 12/1 this season)
  • SJSU (500/1 to 100/1)

Worse:

  • Utah St (7/1 last season to 50/1 this season)
  • UNLV (50/1 to 300/1)

MWCodds.PNG

Worst option on that board: Air Force

Despite being a charter member, AF has never won a MWC championshp in football (nor hardly any in any sport). In two decades in the WAC, AF won the conference title just twice. It's been persuasively discussed on this board that the main reason is AF's relatively small players. They simply get more beat up than most conference teams so that toward the end of the year they aren't as healthy. That's somewhat borne out by winning two titles in 20 years in the WAC and zero titles in the same amount of time in the MWC. Although in the WAC days you could maybe win the conference playing just 11 games, now you have to play 13.

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Air Force was way underrated last year. They had most of their team returning. They had a great year. I’m not buying the small guy stuff with Air Force anymore. Their lines may be a tad smaller than most but their lines were pretty damn good last year and dominated a lot of teams up front. There are two primary factors that make things tough for Air Force.

First, it’s extremely tough to get in and school and future career takes priority over football. Which leads me into the second disadvantage. They practice less than other schools because of their school and academic requirements. Air Force may not win the conference very often, but they have always been one of the tougher games on Boise States schedule every year. I have a ton of respect for their football team. 

Im not sure what Air Force has coming back, but if they have a lot of starters returning the odds look right. If not, they are over rated. 

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It’s going to be interesting to see how the teams with new coaches do. Has there ever been so many new coaches in the MWC like this year? The downside for the new coaches will be lack of spring practice and limited practice this summer. 

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On 4/15/2020 at 11:10 PM, LoboMan59 said:

If we ever get to playing some football, will find out how many of Davie’s leftover kids, have the will, or the strength, or the guts, to play the kind of hard nosed football, that Gonzalez and Long, want them to play.

A 13 game schedule with no bye weeks and the final three games vs. Boise, AFA, and WYO is going to make that tough.

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On 6/4/2020 at 1:22 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

Worst option on that board: Air Force

Despite being a charter member, AF has never won a MWC championshp in football (nor hardly any in any sport). In two decades in the WAC, AF won the conference title just twice. It's been persuasively discussed on this board that the main reason is AF's relatively small players. They simply get more beat up than most conference teams so that toward the end of the year they aren't as healthy. That's somewhat borne out by winning two titles in 20 years in the WAC and zero titles in the same amount of time in the MWC. Although in the WAC days you could maybe win the conference playing just 11 games, now you have to play 13.

Reb high at 300/1 is a worse bet.  All af has to do is win the mountain and the title is theirs. Not saying it is going to happen but that is more realistic than unlv winning it all at 300/1. Rebs should be around 10000/1.  

"but we only lost to Stanford by 3."

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On 4/15/2020 at 8:34 PM, LoboMan59 said:

I agree, that UNM should have the least expectations of doing much of anything, for really the next two years, until the new coaching staff can get their full roster of their own players. 
i would be pleasantly surprised if UNM wins the games they should win, and at least be competitive in the others.  .500 in any of the first two years, would be a huge step forward.

NM will be improved, no doubt. The following year(s) will illustrate, lots to implement in the 3-3-5 personnel needs to compliment, not sure the players are in place...

Looking forward to seeing you guys paste the FresTuckians and others!

 

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17 minutes ago, Rev McQuervo said:

Looking forward to seeing you guys paste the FresTuckians and others!

FRESNO! 
FRESNO!
FRESNO!

daNyvHK.gif

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On 6/4/2020 at 8:43 AM, BleedRebelRed said:

Updated MWC odds, listed in an article by Todd Dewey in today's LVRJ https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/sportsbooks-expect-unlv-to-struggle-in-marcus-arroyos-first-year-2044345/

Interesting that the only difference from LVSuperBook's numbers a month ago is that they are willing to pay less on UNLV for the random locals that decide to drop $20.

Mountain West title game (Posted at Westgate)

  • Boise State Even
  • Air Force +350
  • San Diego State 5-1
  • Hawaii 12-1
  • Fresno State 12-1
  • UNR 25-1
  • Wyoming 25-1
  • Colorado State 30-1
  • Utah State 50-1
  • San Jose State 100-1
  • UNLV 200-1
  • New Mexico 300-1

I still think Wyoming is the best bet on the board. I don't think they will, but at 25-1 that's the best payout for someone who could. 

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On 6/4/2020 at 12:20 PM, soupslam1 said:

Air Force was way underrated last year. They had most of their team returning. They had a great year. I’m not buying the small guy stuff with Air Force anymore. Their lines may be a tad smaller than most but their lines were pretty damn good last year and dominated a lot of teams up front. There are two primary factors that make things tough for Air Force.

First, it’s extremely tough to get in and school and future career takes priority over football. Which leads me into the second disadvantage. They practice less than other schools because of their school and academic requirements. Air Force may not win the conference very often, but they have always been one of the tougher games on Boise States schedule every year. I have a ton of respect for their football team. 

Im not sure what Air Force has coming back, but if they have a lot of starters returning the odds look right. If not, they are over rated. 

Air Force would have easily won the MW last year of it wasn't for Boise State. They were far and away the next best team. Had that game been in CS it might have been different. 

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Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy

Updated odds to win Mountain West via @SuperBookUSA:

Boise State 10/11

Air Force 4/1

San Diego State

5/1 Hawaii 12/1

Fresno State 14/1

Nevada, Wyoming 25/1

Colorado State 30/1

Utah State 60/1

San Jose State 100/1

UNLV 200/1

New Mexico 300/1

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UNLV is going to surprise a lot of people. If you have an extra 10 grand lying around, put it on UNLV.

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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