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retrofade

GAME THREAD: 2020 United States Presidential Election, featuring the Battle for Control of the Senate and the House

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56 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

And both groups ironically going after one of their own 

As I may have mentioned, despite having previously only voted once before for a Republican, my dad didn't vote for Kerry solely because he thought the guy was a phony. And the main reason for that was the swift boat guys pointing out that Kerry got a purple heart medal every time he got a hang nail. Dad's CO asked him whether he wanted to be advocated for that medal after the palm of dad's hand had to be sewn up by a medic in a fox hole after the medic pulled shrapnel from a German grenade out of it and dad said no because he thought purple hearts should only be for "major" injuries.

On 60 Minutes the Lincoln Project founders stated their goal was to influence 4% of the independents who voted for Trump in 2016 not do so in 2020. They didn't say where they came up with that number nor how they expect to check but I bet they will have been successful.

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1 hour ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Am I correct in thinking that SLC is now purple but the rest of the state remains almost completely red?

I ask because I know a lot more about Arizona and that state seems to be gradually turning purple. Tucson has been that color for quite some time and Phoenix seems to be gradually following suit whereas the entire rest of the state seems to think Trump is God.

 

SLC is solidly blue. Have had a Democrat as mayor since 1976.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_Salt_Lake_City

I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns, and money
The shit has hit the fan

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30 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

As I may have mentioned, despite having previously only voted once before for a Republican, my dad didn't vote for Kerry solely because he thought the guy was a phony. And the main reason for that was the swift boat guys pointing out that Kerry got a purple heart medal every time he got a hang nail. Dad's CO asked him whether he wanted to be advocated for that medal after the palm of dad's hand had to be sewn up by a medic in a fox hole after the medic pulled shrapnel from a German grenade out of it and dad said no because he thought purple hearts should only be for "major" injuries.

On 60 Minutes the Lincoln Project founders stated their goal was to influence 4% of the independents who voted for Trump in 2016 not do so in 2020. They didn't say where they came up with that number nor how they expect to check but I bet they will have been successful.

Interesting - The 4% is an odd number. They must have crunched some numbers & did some election modeling - When it was only around 70,000 voters over three states that won trump the election, I guess they are thinking that 'X' amount will defect just because now we can see trump is a clown show and maybe they want 4% beyond that estimate ?!?!

Here is some NV modeling by a local political pundit showing some different breakdowns based on turnout & who goes where:

The first column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and split others evenly, 45 percent to 45 percent.

The second column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-40.

The third column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-40.

The fourth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Biden won indies, 50-45.

The fifth column shows what would happen if both candidates received votes from 90 percent of their bases and the other candidate got 5 percent of the others and Trump won indies, 50-45.

90/90/80 turnout 90-90-45/45 90-90-50/40 90/90/40-50 90/90/50-45 90/90/45-50
Biden 709,556 729,556 689,556 729,556 709,556
Trump 652,111 632,111 672,111 652,111 672,111
Rest 92,719 92,719 92,719 72,719 72,719
Biden 49% 50% 47% 50% 49%
Trump 45% 43% 46% 45% 46%
Rest 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%
Victory margin 57,445 (Biden) 97,445 (Biden) 17,445 (Biden) 77,445 (Biden) 37,445 (Biden)
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Nevada update from  https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

Dems with good sized lead in early ballot returns..............Reps waiting for actual in-person voting (early or on election day) which starts Saturday 

As always in Nevada..........Dems need to run up the score in Clark County (Vegas area)............Dems need to keep Washoe County (Reno Sparks) no less that a 52-48 loss.............and just get what pittance of votes you can get from the 15 rural counties where Reps probably win 80-20%

First two weeks of October in NV.........Dems added 15,347 new voters registrations.........nonpartisans added 13,340.............Reps added 12,828 - Republicans have been coming in 3rd in VR for most of the last 4 years 

Of the above totals here are the county numbers

Clark 12,663 D........10,066 NP.......9,301 R

Washoe 2,118 D...........2,069 NP..........1,744 R

15 rural counties 566 D..........1,205 NP..........1,782 R

Republicans only gains were in the rural counties

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6 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Trump going after Sasse now.

 

Lol.  Not surprising given this quote from a couple days ago:

"If young people become permanent Democrats because they've just been repulsed by the obsessive nature of our politics, or if women who were willing to still vote with the Republican Party in 2016 decide that they need to turn away from this party permanently in the future, the debate is not going to be, you know, 'Ben Sasse, why were you so mean to Donald Trump?'" Sasse said on the call. "It's going to be 'What the heck were any of us thinking that selling a TV-obsessed narcissistic individual to the American people was a good idea?' It is not a good idea."

 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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54 minutes ago, retrofade said:

I went down for early voting today. I waited an hour in line, and then cast my vote for Joseph R. Biden. 

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I tried to get a picture of the bald eagle that was flying around, but I missed it. There's a few that nest in the nearby lakes, and as many as 40 others are pretty regularly spotted throughout the year.

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54 minutes ago, retrofade said:

htRls0q.jpg?1

QvDPOAG.jpg?1

kDQqh4o.jpg?1

 

I tried to get a picture of the bald eagle that was flying around, but I missed it. There's a few that nest in the nearby lakes, and as many as 40 others are pretty regularly spotted throughout the year.

I see all these pictures and I can't believe how many places are still using paper ballots.

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2 minutes ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

Strange to see one become a vertebrate so late in life.

He had to beat the GOP challenger I guess.  

You know, I rip on Hamilton a lot on here but maybe he had a point wanting congress to be a lifetime position once elected?  Maybe it would insulate them and they could work on legislating more than they work on campaigning?

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25 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

He had to beat the GOP challenger I guess.  

You know, I rip on Hamilton a lot on here but maybe he had a point wanting congress to be a lifetime position once elected?  Maybe it would insulate them and they could work on legislating more than they work on campaigning?

It would also keep them from having to constantly appeal to the extreme of their party in the primaries. Maybe more moderates would emerge. Have to think it through though🤔

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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