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GAME THREAD: 2020 United States Presidential Election, featuring the Battle for Control of the Senate and the House

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Just now, UNLV2001 said:

Weird thing about this 2020 election - is the reality that some R's will flip to Biden.......and some D's will flip to trump ..........question is how many when number crunching party numbers , then there's the bigger mystery of which way are the NP's breaking?!?! 

In NV the Np's probably decide the election and with NV's "None of these candidates" option, I could see quite a few going that route as they aren't happy with Biden or trump 

Good point

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2 minutes ago, Rebelbacker said:

Wait until the afternoon. The lead will expand in Florida. 

The story no one is talking about now but will in the coming days is the ground game for Trump. That is turning out low propensity voters in mass in multiple states. That's where the campaign money went into. Biden didn't have a ground game until the last few weeks. Too late. 

Maybe. Probably depends on the county. I heard Broward is getting more election day Dems as the day goes on.

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Just now, robe said:

Positive sign for Trump. Fox News reported some serious concerns from the Biden camp.

Again, expectations were / are that R's win the election day turnout ........but this chart has seen slow stead R decine in %, but R's will & should win the election day vote 

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11 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

Again, expectations were / are that R's win the election day turnout ........but this chart has seen slow stead R decine in %, but R's will & should win the election day vote 

in 2016 election day was R+5-6

If the R lead continues slowing at the same pace as the day goes on, it'll be around R+3 probably

Keep in mind that if Independents break one way or the other none of it matters. Apparently Independents in Florida polling are all over the place, so who knows. 

One thing I do know: it'll be close. 

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11 minutes ago, youngredbullfan said:

Maybe. Probably depends on the county. I heard Broward is getting more election day Dems as the day goes on.

Hillary carried far more hispanics and blacks in Broward and Dade than Biden will. Trump will pull Bush numbers with hispanics. The margins in South Florida won't be nearly enough to counter the panhandle. 

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1 minute ago, youngredbullfan said:

in 2016 election day was R+6

If the R lead continues slowing at the same pace as the day goes on, it'll be around R+3

Keep in mind that if Independents break one way or the other none of it matters. Apparently Independents in Florida polling are all over the place, so who knows. 

One thing I do know: it'll be close. 

R's more apt to avoid mail voting - and turnout for in-person voting & election day............which is why the GOP around the country is frantically trying to get mail ballots tossed out and why trump wants immediate count of election day votes so he can declare himself the winner.

It's like a baseball game where one team gets 4 runs in the 1st, then declares themselves the winner by the end of 3 innings 

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5 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

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As an Ohioan, I can tell you, Trump will win the state. 

 

The state-level Democratic Party is a clown show and has been for a long time. They've gotten a little better this cycle but the demographics here just aren't Dem-friendly anymore. Our population is too spread out. Not enough people in Cleveland/Columbus to balance out the exurban and rural "honorary Kentuckians" that make up most of the rest of Ohio. 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, youngredbullfan said:

As an Ohioan, I can tell you, Trump will win the state. 

 

The state-level Democratic Party is a clown show and has been for a long time. They've gotten a little better this cycle but the demographics here just aren't Dem-friendly anymore. Our population is too spread out. Not enough people in Cleveland/Columbus to balance out the exurban and rural "honorary Kentuckians" that make up most of the rest of Ohio. 

 

 

 

Ohio is different in that the urban areas don't dominate the rural areas like other states - Maybe because Ohio has a lot of cities & areas that are sort of cross over 

NV & AZ are two large metro's PHX & LV.....two medium metros TUC RENO and not a lot of anything else so the metros can swing the state 

I didn't have Ohio going to Biden but I think it will be closer than most expect 

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5 minutes ago, youngredbullfan said:

As an Ohioan, I can tell you, Trump will win the state. 

 

The state-level Democratic Party is a clown show and has been for a long time. They've gotten a little better this cycle but the demographics here just aren't Dem-friendly anymore. Our population is too spread out. Not enough people in Cleveland/Columbus to balance out the exurban and rural "honorary Kentuckians" that make up most of the rest of Ohio. 

 

 

 

You haven't graduated yet, or did you not want to move back to the Hendo?

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2 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

You haven't graduated yet, or did you not want to move back to the Hendo?

Strangely, a dissertation takes roughly about the same time to write as the length of time someone's willing to pay me to continue writing it. 

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Republicans up 150k votes now in Florida.  Up in Palm county by 15k votes apparently unheard of. He projected to do better in Miami-Dade county. Florida is still projected as close. 

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