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retrofade

GAME THREAD: 2020 United States Presidential Election, featuring the Battle for Control of the Senate and the House

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5 hours ago, toonkee said:

No way? Like we don't know if they were registered R or D? I see the data does not include that line of thinking. Does TX just not do it like that?

My voter registration in Utah shows elections (primary, general, presidential, etc) that I have and haven't voted in.

I'm sure Texas has access to that data.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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45 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

Can't see non 2016 voters to suddenly surge to vote in 2020 because of the job trump has done.............I'd bet this is anti-trump backlash & probably a lot of younger new voters that don't lean republican - Not saying TX goes to Biden, but I bet it's closer than R's would like and trump losing TX isn't unthinkable

As to WI & MI - Think trump get drilled in both states, so right there he's down two key states 

Trafalgar has Trump winning Michigan

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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36 minutes ago, retrofade said:

I can't remember if I posted this in here or not, but I'm going to post it here anyway because I'm too lazy to look through and find out. Plus it's good anyway.

 

Epic. 

Great stuff.

Thanks for sharing !

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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12 minutes ago, Spaztecs said:

Trafalgar has Trump winning Michigan

Trafalgar's Michigans crosstabs show their sample skewed older than the state.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZEvKCyr9EKALfllUm9K3_xnnilz8E4OC/view

In the sample, 40.9% of respondents were age 45-64. But that age group is only about 26.5% of Michigan.

Trafalgar's sample was 23.1% in the over 65 age group. But that age group is only 17.6% of Michigan.

I don't know how Trafalgar massaged their data to account for that. But if the younger demographics show up in large numbers in Michigan, Trafalgar may be way off.

 

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V7zd1lH.png

 

The GOP closed the early voting gap over the last few days, to the point that there's only about 250k early votes between the two parties. We'll see what happens with turnout on Election Day. 

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2 hours ago, Spaztecs said:

Trafalgar has Trump winning Michigan

That would be pretty unthinkable given current polling. Not impossible, but ridiculously unlikely

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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10 hours ago, retrofade said:

V7zd1lH.png

 

The GOP closed the early voting gap over the last few days, to the point that there's only about 250k early votes between the two parties. We'll see what happens with turnout on Election Day. 

The fact this shows a high percentage of female voters is encouraging.  Being female correlates highly with being anti Trump.  

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17 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

Trump now says he will not declare himself winner on election night if it looks like he is "ahead".

Instead he says he is going to send in his lawyers

. . . and the Proud Boys, various other militia wackos and Don Jr's girlfriend.

Kimberly Guilfoyle: Ex-Fox News host attacks California in shouted speech  at RNC | The Independent | The Independent

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