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retrofade

GAME THREAD: 2020 United States Presidential Election, featuring the Battle for Control of the Senate and the House

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8 hours ago, masterfrog said:

You don’t need to use a drop box in Texas. They have early voting at a real polling place for anybody who wants to vote. A lot of these polling places are open weekends too and early voting goes on for two weeks. 

You know what’s better than standing in line for hours? Filling out a ballot at home and then just dropping it in a dropbox. 

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It looks like a lot unaffiliated voters in NC, 33% of all registered voters here, are either going to show up within the last three days of early voting, on Election Day, or not at all. 

4p8cH3m.png

 

I do like that we're at 52.7% turnout already though. In 2016 — which I know we can't directly apply here — the last three days had the highest number of votes cast. It does look like we may be doing the inverse this year, but I'm hopeful that we get some big numbers through Saturday. 

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14 minutes ago, RSF said:

During working hours - the weekend voting has passed.  Some people do work.  And the lines have been long.  Yes, they are needed.  How many, not whether, is the question.  The idea is - or should be - to encourage people to vote.  Radical concept, I know.

Texas has long been a low voter turnout state.  That doesn’t seem to be the case this year as Texas is already at 94.1% of 2016 turnout.   

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2 minutes ago, retrofade said:

It looks like a lot unaffiliated voters in NC, 33% of all registered voters here, are either going to show up within the last three days of early voting, on Election Day, or not at all. 

4p8cH3m.png

 

I do like that we're at 52.7% turnout already though. 

Do you have that turnout by age?   With all the college students in North Carolina, I’m interested in how that impact plays out. 

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3 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

Do you have that turnout by age?   With all the college students in North Carolina, I’m interested in how that impact plays out. 

Nope, just by race and gender.

Here's the full report that we have access to.

zZHFSXF.png

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1 hour ago, RSF said:

During working hours - the weekend voting has passed.  Some people do work.  And the lines have been long.  Yes, they are needed.  How many, not whether, is the question.  The idea is - or should be - to encourage people to vote.  Radical concept, I know.

It's a pretty sad commentary on a party's platform when their best chance of victory is based on Americans not participating.

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9 hours ago, masterfrog said:

You don’t need to use a drop box in Texas. They have early voting at a real polling place for anybody who wants to vote. A lot of these polling places are open weekends too and early voting goes on for two weeks. 

Well for whatever reason Harris County previously saw fit to have 11 drop boxes. Now due to the Texas Governor and Supreme Court they have one. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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1 hour ago, NVGiant said:

You know what’s better than standing in line for hours? Filling out a ballot at home and then just dropping it in a dropbox. 

That's what I did. It was pretty good. I even get to put on ly sticker on tuesday for people to see in my zoom meetings.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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5 minutes ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

Well for whatever reason Harris County previously saw fit to have 11 drop boxes. Now due to the Texas Governor and Supreme Court they have one. 

Anyone's who ever tried to navigate Harris County roadways knows why they had 11.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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4 minutes ago, RSF said:

Anyone's who ever tried to navigate Harris County roadways knows why they had 11.

Yes I was there working on a project for a couple weeks a few years ago and even for someone who grew up in Southern California the sprawl of the Houston area was something else. The place is massive. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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10 minutes ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

Yes I was there working on a project for a couple weeks a few years ago and even for someone who grew up in Southern California the sprawl of the Houston area was something else. The place is massive. 

I once got stuck in a traffic jam on the freeway circling the city, no accident, no construction.....at 10pm on a Saturday night.

 

 

Now, in Tarrant County, there's less of a need for the boxes - less people, less traffic, and you can get to downtown from just about anywhere (except maybe the northside, where the freeway is perpetually under construction).  Having said that, still would take me about 40 minutes to get from my abode to the one drop off box in the county.  I shudder to think about crazy it is is to do that in Harris or Travis (Austin) County.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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More blatant GOP corruption.

Quote

A local judge and head of Duval County’s vote-counting board has donated repeatedly to President Trump’s re-election campaign and other Republican efforts, and his home is covered in signs supporting Trump, despite rules requiring judges like him refrain from donations or public support.

Duval County senior Judge Brent Shore has served as chairman of the canvassing board because of his role as a county judge.

Yet judicial rules bar judges from political donations of any kind.

And canvassing board rules bar members from "displaying a candidate's campaign signs."

Senior county Judge Brent Shore, who has refused to change rules barring the public from photographing or videotaping vote-counting meetings, first donated $20 in 2016 to Donald Trump’s initial campaign for president. He has donated 11 more times since then to Trump for a total of $170, as well as donating $178 in the last two years to the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Outside his home, his yard holds a Trump sign and two signs for Republican U.S. Rep. John Rutherford. A Trump-Pence banner hangs from his front window, and four stickers cover the window panels by his front door.

“Americans for the Trump Agenda,” reads one. “Keep the heat on Congress.”

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/29/election-2020-duval-canvassing-board-head-donated-trump-12-times-brent-shore-county-florida-vote/6066521002/

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10 minutes ago, RSF said:

I once got stuck in a traffic jam on the freeway circling the city, no accident, no construction.....at 10pm on a Saturday night.

 

 

Now, in Tarrant County, there's less of a need for the boxes - less people, less traffic, and you can get to downtown from just about anywhere (except maybe the northside, where the freeway is perpetually under construction).  Having said that, still would take me about 40 minutes to get from my abode to the one drop off box in the county.  I shudder to think about crazy it is is to do that in Harris or Travis (Austin) County.

It’s so different here in my County. Everyone in CA received an absentee ballot. They have drop off boxes at every City and County public library so most folks can walk. 

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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1 hour ago, renoskier said:

It's a pretty sad commentary on a party's platform when their best chance of victory is based on Americans not participating.

Isn’t that true of every political party. We have over 50 political parties in this country. Where do you think the Green Party’s path to victory lies?

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5 minutes ago, masterfrog said:

Isn’t that true of every political party. We have over 50 political parties in this country. Where do you think the Green Party’s path to victory lies?

Germany....

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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1 hour ago, renoskier said:

It's a pretty sad commentary on a party's platform when their best chance of victory is based on Americans not participating.

Agreed.

Certain segments of the population so disgusted, that they refuse to participate.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/us/many-in-milwaukee-neighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html

Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didn’t Vote — and Don’t Regret It

They admitted that they could not complain too much: Only two of them had voted. But there were no regrets.

“I don’t feel bad,” Mr. Fleming said, trimming a mustache. “Milwaukee is tired. Both of them were terrible. They never do anything for us anyway.”

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2 hours ago, Old_SD_Dude said:

Well for whatever reason Harris County previously saw fit to have 11 drop boxes. Now due to the Texas Governor and Supreme Court they have one. 

but that's 1 box is only for 4.7 million people.

if they line up now and it takes 5 seconds per ballot, let me do the math .... carry the one .... adjust to seconds, they should be finished by January

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20 hours ago, youngredbullfan said:

I'm getting more and more convinced Biden has a shot at Arizona. In 2016 it was one of the few places where the polls underestimated Hillary's support , and Biden has maintained a lead for a long time there with very few outliers.

 

Pennsylvania I think is key. If the polling is as off as it was in 2016 then it's a dead heat. I'd say whoever wins PA wins the election.  Trump will win Florida and hold onto GA, NC, OH, and obviously TX.

 

This is what my map looks like 

 

RnZOA.png

Except for your prediction for NC, I agree with everything you say.

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