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Corona Virus potential long term impact?

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48 minutes ago, BSUFan said:

Current death rate is estimated @ .07%.  Reports also indicate there may be many more that have the virus that haven't been reported and haven't been tested which will drive that number even lower. 

Not it is not. That would mean 7 out of every 10,000 people who get the disease die from it. That’s clearly not the case. The WHO put the death rate at 3.4% two days ago. Now unreported cases will push that number down, but even if it’s 1% that is serious with how contagious it is. If 30 million people catch it like they do the flu, that’s 300,000 deaths. That’s more dead Americans than in all of world war 2.

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Please let my cousin know your view on dangers of driving.  He would be very happy to hear it.

I’m guessing he was in an accident so you think that makes math not matter. I’ll try anyway. Dear unfortunate cousin, there is some degree of danger than comes with any human behavior. Accidents happen and when the behavior is performed hundreds of billions of times a year, those accidents may make it seem that the behavior is more dangerous than it really is. It’s not. 

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4 hours ago, Headbutt said:

Not totally accurate. It’s both. 

I'm speaking of the pandemic. Pandemics don't give a shit how you vote. 

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3 hours ago, BSUFan said:

Enjoying those deaths now aren't you.  You'll be dancing when the average reaches the number killed daily in automobiles. Now if you sustain the corona death average at or above the daily average of automobile deaths for the next ten years you'll be insufferable. 

Some how I just knew my time at Claremont was a waste of money. 

I'll continue to look at the glass half full. You can relish in your doom and gloom.

No, actually I'm concerned for reasons I've enumerated countless times upstream.

Unfortunately, I don't have the luxury of being an ignorant f*cknut and burying my head in the sane like some.

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To lend some perspective to how quickly things can change, here ere are four frames showing the progression of the pandemic over the past six weeks at two week intervals beginning Feb 1:

Screen-Shot-2020-02-01-at-10-54-45-PM.pn

Screen-Shot-2020-02-14-at-11-51-10-PM.pn

Screen-Shot-2020-03-01-at-9-09-07-AM.png

Screen-Shot-2020-03-14-at-12-54-22-PM.pn

This also provides a good example to help understand the dynamic nature of a pandemic and its impact on the CFR.

In the two week period from Feb 1-14 (t0), an average of 87 people died each day.

Between Feb 15 and Mar 1 (t1), an average of 104 people died each day, an increase of 20% over t0.

Between Mar 1-14, an average of 187 people have died each day, an 80% increase over t1.

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On 3/12/2020 at 1:51 PM, Wyovanian said:

At what cost? What if it was over in six weeks with 1,000 dead? Was it worth people losing jobs, livelihoods, businesses shuttering, trillions lost in retirement savings and pension funds?

Like it or not, at some point we have to acuarialize individual lives and risks (insurance companies have been doing it for centuries) and determine which is the higher cost. Poverty kills more people than any other human condition.

I would love you to discuss this with a non-IM doc (pick one) who is brushing up on ER skills they haven’t used since med school (such as operating a ventilator) in case hospitals are overwhelmed with patients, so they can at least help with “bread and butter” issues.

I’ll be honest that the people who focus on numbers in a situation like this, especially macro numbers, really annoy the hell out of me.  How about looking at the fact that the global community is coming together like possibly no other time in HUMAN HISTORY, in this case to try to stop a pandemic in its tracks?

-steps off soap box-

-steps back on-

I like to watch Agents of Shield, and a line a character uses at one point in response to his number of acceptable losses really resonates with me: “my number is zero, and, for the record, I hate that term.”

F&cking actuarializing sh!t.

-steps back off-

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7 hours ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Not it is not. That would mean 7 out of every 10,000 people who get the disease die from it. That’s clearly not the case. The WHO put the death rate at 3.4% two days ago. Now unreported cases will push that number down, but even if it’s 1% that is serious with how contagious it is. If 30 million people catch it like they do the flu, that’s 300,000 deaths. That’s more dead Americans than in all of world war 2.

I’m guessing he was in an accident so you think that makes math not matter. I’ll try anyway. Dear unfortunate cousin, there is some degree of danger than comes with any human behavior. Accidents happen and when the behavior is performed hundreds of billions of times a year, those accidents may make it seem that the behavior is more dangerous than it really is. It’s not. 

A friend of mine received what he would call a basic education in virology in the course of receiving his doctorate in molecular genetics.  Based on what he’s told me, a simple way of looking at it is that it’s 10 times more deadly than the flu.  Now, that ignores a multitude of other factors and variables, but it’s a good way of boiling it down to something easily understandable.

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13 hours ago, CV147 said:

+500 deaths since yesterday.

150,000 people die per day. 

2 hours ago, bornsilverandblue said:

at it is that it’s 10 times more deadly than the flu

The statistics simply do support this opinion.

2 hours ago, bornsilverandblue said:

Now, that ignores a multitude of other factors and variables

Clearly. Which means the extrapolation simply cannot be accurate.

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2 minutes ago, PlayersinVegas said:

How long y'all think they'll cancel sports for?

I think sports will be back by mid-April 

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I don’t think so. We are not nearly at the apex of the infection. Our hospital is expecting half our beds occupied in the next 2-3 weeks due to the over abundance of caution. Not necessarily critical but trying to limit the spread. Check the rate of decline in South Korea. That will be the most accurate comparison for now. They had the first drop in new cases this week.

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https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074988/coronavirus-some-recovered-patients-may-have

 

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Some patients who recovered from Covid-19 have suffered reduced lung function and now experience problems such as gasping for air when walking quickly, Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has revealed.

The authority released its findings on Thursday after observing the first group of discharged coronavirus patients.

The city has so far recorded 131 confirmed cases of Covid-19, including three fatalities. Of them, 74 patients have been discharged while one probable 
coronavirus case has also recovered.

Dr Owen Tsang Tak-yin, medical director of the authority’s Infectious Disease Centre at Princess Margaret Hospital in Kwai Chung, said doctors had already seen around a dozen discharged patients in follow-up appointments. Two to three were unable to do things as they had in the past.

A review of lung scans of nine infected patients at Princess Margaret found patterns similar to frosted glass in all of them, suggesting there was organ damage.

 

 

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1 hour ago, NMpackalum said:

I don’t think so. We are not nearly at the apex of the infection. Our hospital is expecting half our beds occupied in the next 2-3 weeks due to the over abundance of caution. Not necessarily critical but trying to limit the spread. Check the rate of decline in South Korea. That will be the most accurate comparison for now. They had the first drop in new cases this week.

If I have to deliver some lab work follow up that is non-threatening, should I just hold off for a bit before submitting it?

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1 hour ago, NMpackalum said:

I don’t think so. We are not nearly at the apex of the infection. Our hospital is expecting half our beds occupied in the next 2-3 weeks due to the over abundance of caution. Not necessarily critical but trying to limit the spread. Check the rate of decline in South Korea. That will be the most accurate comparison for now. They had the first drop in new cases this week.

South Korea has been doing a lot more testing and tracking, we are far behind in that regard

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17 minutes ago, Rebels2k3 said:

South Korea has been doing a lot more testing and tracking, we are far behind in that regard

 

19 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

If I have to deliver some lab work follow up that is non-threatening, should I just hold off for a bit before submitting it?

I don't think it matters a ton if you go get some basic lab followup especially if you don't have cold symptoms and have no risk factors. It would be higher risk to go to a private office because they are not as likely to be following CDC guidelines with respect to precautions because they don't have the resources for appropriate masks and gowns. My office included. If you choose not to go, be prepared to wait a while because the numbers are going to skyrocket here in the next few weeks.

The Koreans do a lot of tracking for sure but testing is not the endall because of the limitations. Currently even in a high volume academic centers like UCLA, they do in house testing because it's faster (2 days) and only run less than a 100 per day. And the positives still have to be confirmed by the CDC.  Until we get a rapid test like for influenza, you can only do what the CDC recommendations of staying home if you're sick or have high risk conditions. The UK is actually biting the bullet and going for the herd immunity route. They are trying to delay the most serious spread until the flu season is over because of limited facilities and personnel shortages in their National Health Service.

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15 minutes ago, NMpackalum said:

 

I don't think it matters a ton if you go get some basic lab followup especially if you don't have cold symptoms and have no risk factors. It would be higher risk to go to a private office because they are not as likely to be following CDC guidelines with respect to precautions because they don't have the resources for appropriate masks and gowns. My office included. If you choose not to go, be prepared to wait a while because the numbers are going to skyrocket here in the next few weeks.

The Koreans do a lot of tracking for sure but testing is not the endall because of the limitations. Currently even in a high volume academic centers like UCLA, they do in house testing because it's faster (2 days) and only run less than a 100 per day. And the positives still have to be confirmed by the CDC.  Until we get a rapid test like for influenza, you can only do what the CDC recommendations of staying home if you're sick or have high risk conditions. The UK is actually biting the bullet and going for the herd immunity route. They are trying to delay the most serious spread until the flu season is over because of limited facilities and personnel shortages in their National Health Service.

The UK government realized they couldn't be that stupid and started taking proactive measures yesterday. You can't go for "herd immunity" with a virus that has a higher death rate than the seasonal flu.

Anyways, the point is that we probably aren't testing for enough cases and there are probably a lot more people out there who are positive but haven't been tested yet. There is no excuse for why we haven't been able to ramp up our testing capabilities to match places like South Korea. 

 

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Because you/we can't get enough of this stuff...

From a John's Hopkins professor:

“Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” he said. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”  He added: “I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States.

“Our American hospitals have had very little room to take on increased capacity,” Makary said. “Most ICUs function at full capacity or near full capacity. We only have 100,000 ICU beds in the United States. We could see 200,000 new patients that need critical care up to 2 million.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html

 

 

 

 

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