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Corona Virus potential long term impact?

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52 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

I was talking with a good friend last night who's middle management at a large finance company about this. Even once we begin returning to a normal routine, the disruptions in supply chains are going to reverberate through global economies for months to come.

Remember, in 2008, it wasn't the subprime crisis, the housing crisis, or even CDC or other dark market derivative products - all were causal factors and individual dominoes - it was the resultant liquidity crisis that threatened to bring the wheels of global trade and lending to a complete halt. Should that happen, then or now, there goes the whole ball of wax.

I agree. I said a few days ago that it is the economic impact that people should watch.

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On 3/12/2020 at 11:43 AM, bigd said:

It’s honestly so crazy. Only 3300 people have died worldwide. Most of those in China which is a country with 1.2 billion.

The flu, heart disease, traffic fatalities, domestic violence, etc kill way more. Why are we going crazy over this?

what am I missing?

Exactly. The reaction is totally out of proportion to the mortality rate.

Its basically a strand of the flu and doesnt even make most people sick. 

Its become a political football and being used as an excuse for the weak economy taking a dump that everyone knew was coming anyhow. This shit is so lame.

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11 minutes ago, qwelish said:

Exactly. The reaction is totally out of proportion to the mortality rate.

Its basically a strand of the flu and doesnt even make most people sick. 

Its become a political football and being used as an excuse for the weak economy taking a dump that everyone knew was coming anyhow. This shit is so lame.

It's destroying the economy fasho

 

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9 minutes ago, qwelish said:

Exactly. The reaction is totally out of proportion to the mortality rate.

Its basically a strand of the flu and doesnt even make most people sick. 

Its become a political football and being used as an excuse for the weak economy taking a dump that everyone knew was coming anyhow. This shit is so lame.

this virus that is still in its infancy, but ok you know better than the experts that claim 40 to 70% of the adult population of the planet will be infected

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52 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

this virus that is still in its infancy, but ok you know better than the experts that claim 40 to 70% of the adult population of the planet will be infected

First case was in mid November, 5 months ago. Not in its infancy at all.

The numbers are the numbers. Im sorry the numbers hurt your feels. SARS infected about 8k and killed 800. Thats a 10% mortality that spanned all age groups.

Covod19 has infected 145,000 and killed just over 5k, mostly over the age of 50. A far lower 2-3% mortality rate and not even in line with the mortality numbers of the common cold, which kills 50-60,000 people per year. Coronavirus is on par to to kill under 10k people, and with the overblown reaction probably fewer than 8k.

The reaction is undoubtedly well out of proportion.

 

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1 hour ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

On the bright side we’re 10 to 14 days ahead on public awareness and response. The government is not going to blunt this thing, it’ll be us.

So true. I do not think the importance of our ability - at an individual and community level - to be net positive factors in helping reduce the rate of transmission so as to allow the lagging institutional end of the effort to bring the ship around.

We've backed out of a couple obligations this week. Working remotely with all client-facing engagements moved either online or postponed. We plan and consolidate shopping trips for both ourselves and my parents to reduce their exposure. 

ProTip: It's not sufficient IMO to only take preventative steps ourselves. It's every bit as critical to vet the respective processes of those we love and see on a regular basis. I can take every precaution in the world, but if I'm going to have beers with a buddy who licks shipping carts for kicks, wtf is the point?

I have a friend who returned on Feb 27 from Germany by way of LHR. I told him before going he would not be allowed over here until after a two week period. The sunset on that 2-week period was yesterday. Unfortunately, on Tuesday, he began coughing, and his cough has progressed significantly over the last few days. He told me yesterday he was having a little trouble breathing (but wasn't concerned enough to see a doctor).

Like an idiot, I insisted he go see a doctor, only to read the latest CDC guidelines which specifically ask low-risk patients not to seek medical attention unless they are having serious respiratory problems.

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5 minutes ago, qwelish said:

First case was in mid November, 5 months ago. Not in its infancy at all.

The numbers are the numbers. Im sorry the numbers hurt your feels. SARS infected about 8k and killed 800. Thats a 10% mortality that spanned all age groups.

Covod19 has infected 145,000 and killed just over 5k, mostly over the age of 50. A far lower 2-3% mortality rate and not even in line with the mortality numbers of the common cold, which kills 50-60,000 people per year. Coronavirus is on par to to kill under 10k people, and with the overblown reaction probably fewer than 8k.

The reaction is undoubtedly well out of proportion.

Some of you are looking at a sphere and seeing a circle.

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Don't know if you caught this on the President's speech today...."First thing I suggest for safety of our population is if you own a travel trailer, RV or tent you should pack your refrigerators/coolers, buy a case of beer+wine+soda+water, call work and go boondocking by an isolated lake for the next three weeks". I'm in!Screenshot_20200313-145406_Gallery.jpg.cd235303770707dd05f07c75064acb13.jpg

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31 minutes ago, qwelish said:

First case was in mid November, 5 months ago. Not in its infancy at all.

The numbers are the numbers. Im sorry the numbers hurt your feels. SARS infected about 8k and killed 800. Thats a 10% mortality that spanned all age groups.

Covod19 has infected 145,000 and killed just over 5k, mostly over the age of 50. A far lower 2-3% mortality rate and not even in line with the mortality numbers of the common cold, which kills 50-60,000 people per year. Coronavirus is on par to to kill under 10k people, and with the overblown reaction probably fewer than 8k.

The reaction is undoubtedly well out of proportion.

 

clearly you know better than Harvard Epidemiologist and other Health numbers crunchers that claim millions will die worldwide.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/

 

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Just now, Del Scorcho said:

clearly you know better than Harvard Epidemiologist and other Health numbers crunchers that claim millions will die worldwide.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/

 

I posted current numbers. His numbers are speculative, but current velocity of infection and mortality certainly do not align with his prognostication.

 

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3 hours ago, Nevada6077 said:

You are ignorant!!!! this is not the 5 day flu!!!!

Chill, bro, who said it was? I just passed along what I read. 

But here’s something else..Doctors in China are now using plasma from those who have recovered to treat those currently infected, with a fair amount of success, usually seeing  some improvement within 24 hours. But I read that at 4:00 this morning, and I don’t have time to find the link now. Nobody says you have to believe it.

 

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I have close family members who traveled to China and Thailand recently in January. One of them is 80+ years old. None were affected at all. 

Also the death rate of infected people has decreased sharply in China. Media and govt are creating panic perfectly in line with election cycle.

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15 minutes ago, 4UNLV said:

Chill, bro, who said it was? I just passed along what I read. 

But here’s something else..Doctors in China are now using plasma from those who have recovered to treat those currently infected, with a fair amount of success, usually seeing  some improvement within 24 hours. But I read that at 4:00 this morning, and I don’t have time to find the link now. Nobody says you have to believe it.

 

Generally, I take anything that comes out of the CPC (Communist Party of China) with a grain of salt. 
 

At some point people will get tired of the hysteria and want to move forward. I’m hoping the government realizes where we are vulnerable and shore up those vulnerabilities for the next time something hits.
 

For example, the dependency on China for medical devices, masks and medicines need to be fixed. There needs to be stockpiles of test kits, masks etc stored somewhere for the public the next time something hits. 
 

Theres a lot to learn but things will rebound and rebound in a big way. 

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31 minutes ago, qwelish said:

I posted current numbers. His numbers are speculative, but current velocity of infection and mortality certainly do not align with his prognostication.

Again, you're looking at a sphere and are seeing a circle.

And how clownishly ignorant and arrogant of you to so casually dismiss the projections of one of the leading virologists in the country.

Lastly, you are categorically incorrect. The current modeling most certainly aligns with a potential infection rate of 40-70%. The CDC's models validate this as they are projecting as much as approx. 48-65% of our own population could become infected (Link). 

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Take it seriously. If you're in the vulnerable age group (60+) or have health issues involving your lungs, heart, kidneys, or diabetes, stay away from large groups of people.

Why didn't the CDC or public health agencies advise that we shut down shit like this during swine flu? It isn't because of the media. It's because they know how it will affect those groups. It kills a good portion of them.

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3 minutes ago, Rosegreen said:

Generally, I take anything that comes out of the CPC (Communist Party of China) with a grain of salt. 

At some point people will get tired of the hysteria and want to move forward. I’m hoping the government realizes where we are vulnerable and shore up those vulnerabilities for the next time something hits.

For example, the dependency on China for medical devices, masks and medicines need to be fixed. There needs to be stockpiles of test kits, masks etc stored somewhere for the public the next time something hits. 

Theres a lot to learn but things will rebound and rebound in a big way. 

You can't make a test kit for a pathogen that hasn't existed yet. :facepalm:

As far as shoring up vulnerabilities, hey - I have an idea... why doesn't the White House form a working group who's sole mission is to make sure we're ready to respond next time there's an unforeseen outbreak that could become a global pandemic and threaten both the global economy and our way of life? They could call it the "Pandemic Response Team."

Wait, what's that? We had one of those? And their very purpose was to shore up such vulnerabilities? But they were fired by Trump in 2018? :waiting:

Link

 

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18 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Again, you're looking at a sphere and are seeing a circle.

And how clownishly ignorant and arrogant of you to so casually dismiss the projections of one of the leading virologists in the country.

Lastly, you are categorically incorrect. The current modeling most certainly aligns with a potential infection rate of 40-70%. The CDC's models validate this as they are projecting as much as approx. 48-65% of our own population could become infected (Link). 

 

Thats funny... You liked the following post which clearly illustrates my exact points. 

Take your sphere and shove it up your sandy gay ass, TheSandyGayman. Youre so goddam stupid that you cant even stay on topic. I clearly stated DEATH rate not INFECTION rate. You ignorant little cuss! The mortality rate is low and declining. There isn't a state of emergency over the flu or Yellow fever which are more contagious and deadly than Coronavirus you dipshit. 

 

15 hours ago, Joe from WY said:

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89571437_10157864012783418_8906041723969

89472873_10157864012798418_3676419364594

89262330_10157864012833418_7844149177868

89634837_10157864012953418_4750543054136

88122894_10157864013013418_1359259507397

 

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6 minutes ago, qwelish said:
 

Thats funny... You liked the following post which clearly illustrates my exact points. 

blah blah blah loud noises something something

^ These numbers need to be updated (I think they are 1/2 weeks old). And it is important to remember they are dynamic.

And as much as I love these data dumps, it is important to remember they provide a snapshot in time, at that moment, but to have context they need to be tracked over time. Pandemics are movies; this is a still shot by comparison as it pertains to COVID-19 (might as well start using the proper nomenclature I suppose). 

At the time those were published online the death toll was increasing at 56 each day.

By contrast, in the two days between March 6-8, 247 people died - more than twice the rate as quoted above.  And in the single day between March 11 and March 12, 345 people died. The rate is increasing, and will continue to do so. Because science.

F*ck you're stupid. And your ignorance risks imperiling others. 

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