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Corona Virus potential long term impact?

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Part of the issue is that there is as much wrong or bad information as their is good information out there. The press reports part of the story not the entire story, they do leave out key points. Then you have doctors who won't even agree with each other. But the #1 issue is hysteria which is being caused by people all around. There have been some doctors in stories and TV saying canceling events and all that will not stop the virus from growing unless other measures are taken. 

Vast majority of people who have caught Corona Virus and died had other underlining health issues. Corona Virus has been around for several years hell, the clorex wipes that we bought last year at Costco, the first thing it lists as killing 99% of is Coronavirus. This might be a different strain but this disease is not anything new. People in this country started to panic when a few clusters came up and unforuately people passed because many of them had other health conditions. The truth is many people in this country would rather panic first then take a step back and think for a minute. This virus has been around and will be around for a long time just like many viruses are. They are working and testing a vaccine right now for the disease. There was this doctor I think on CNN, who was saying the press isn't helping matters but people really need to understand this disease. Its not instant death like some are saying but it is also nothing to wave off. There are also people that have been tested for this virus because of their prolonged exposure to someone who has it, and they never show any symptoms at all either. 

The suspensions of sports, events, and such is leading to more hysteria among the population instead of trying to educate the population about the virus. As more people are tested and more tests are performed the number of those infected is going to go up, but that isn't something to have hysteria either. In Italy and Germany there were talking about the peak might be in April for some reason, 

There is a lot of information out there from what they already know and stuff they are started to find out now as well. One doctor has said when the quarentine is let up in China there will be another outbreak in China. 

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39 minutes ago, wolfpack1 said:

Part of the issue is that there is as much wrong or bad information as their is good information out there. The press reports part of the story not the entire story, they do leave out key points. Then you have doctors who won't even agree with each other. But the #1 issue is hysteria which is being caused by people all around. There have been some doctors in stories and TV saying canceling events and all that will not stop the virus from growing unless other measures are taken. 

Vast majority of people who have caught Corona Virus and died had other underlining health issues. Corona Virus has been around for several years hell, the clorex wipes that we bought last year at Costco, the first thing it lists as killing 99% of is Coronavirus. This might be a different strain but this disease is not anything new. People in this country started to panic when a few clusters came up and unforuately people passed because many of them had other health conditions. The truth is many people in this country would rather panic first then take a step back and think for a minute. This virus has been around and will be around for a long time just like many viruses are. They are working and testing a vaccine right now for the disease. There was this doctor I think on CNN, who was saying the press isn't helping matters but people really need to understand this disease. Its not instant death like some are saying but it is also nothing to wave off. There are also people that have been tested for this virus because of their prolonged exposure to someone who has it, and they never show any symptoms at all either. 

The suspensions of sports, events, and such is leading to more hysteria among the population instead of trying to educate the population about the virus. As more people are tested and more tests are performed the number of those infected is going to go up, but that isn't something to have hysteria either. In Italy and Germany there were talking about the peak might be in April for some reason, 

There is a lot of information out there from what they already know and stuff they are started to find out now as well. One doctor has said when the quarentine is let up in China there will be another outbreak in China. 

Thank you.

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8 hours ago, Wyovanian said:

ancient aliens GIF

What are the statistics related to my cousin and I at seven years playing in my back yard on a beautiful sunny summer day and a three inch branch snaps off the tree kills her instantly? Or my other cousin driving to visit us in Las Vegas and hitting a patch of black ice and flipping his car and dying alone on the road. How about my best friend and I getting our orders and his send him to Vietnam and mine send me home for a 28 day leave. Twelve days later while having a barbecue at his home with his wife and kids as a Navy Chaplain appears to ruin the day and our world?

As a society I guess we should quit playing in our back yard and absolutely must ban automobile travel as 3,287 DEATHS A DAY occur each year, day in and day out.  https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

The "experts" have stated the young are the least affected and may not even know they have the virus. Why is it most activities being canceled are activities our youth are involved with?

I guess I'll need to disconnect from the modern world as another coronal mass ejection as occurred in 1859 (Carrington Event) is inevitable and with our modern electric system will be devastating.

Excuse me but I just think this latest viral outbreak has been completely blown out of proportion.  Being cautious and aware is one thing, sensationalizing and paralyzing the world is another.

Fact is very few know when our time comes and to put the entire world in a tailspin to get clicks and views is just asinine in my view.

Call me some kind of special stupid but I just think the sun is going to come up tomorrow and my family, friends and I are going to enjoy each and every moment we have together and not obsess about what may or may not happen.

 

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Iran appears to be digging mass graves. I don’t think the worldwide numbers are accurate. If you can quarantine and treat  a population like the cruise ship it doesn’t seem so bad. Once the the medical capabilities of a system are swamped, well...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/13/middleeast/iran-coronavirus-mass-graves-intl/index.html

1200.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=forma

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Fox News is moving to live overnight Coronavirus coverage instead of reruns:

Quote

Fox News said Thursday it is pulling overnight repeats common across all cable news networks and will offer live coverage of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic instead starting on March 16.

The changes that add four hours of live programming include "Fox News @ Night" with Shannon Bream being expanded one hour to run until 1:00 a.m., with chief breaking news correspondent Trace Gallagher anchoring from there until 4:00 a.m. EST. The network's live broadcast day usually begins with "Fox & Friends First" at that time.

FNC will also add four hours of live programming on weekends with two-hour editions of "Fox Report" with Jon Scott on Saturday from 6:00 to 8:00 pm and Sunday's from 5:00 pm to 7:00 pm EST.

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/487429-fox-news-pulling-overnight-repeats-to-air-live-24-hour-coverage-of-coronavirus

 

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It's now being reported that “Europe has now become the epicenter of the #COVID19 pandemic, with more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined, apart from China.”

This comes from Tedros Adhanom Ghebteyesus, the Director-General of the World Health Organization. 

Also: “At least 132,000 cases worldwide and 5,000 deaths have been reported around the world.”

(source: CNN)

Sobering numbers that stand to only get worse...

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The panic that has set in because of the Cvirus is interesting to watch. People are afraid because of lack of knowledge. Those that are  under sixty and otherwise healthy appear to have little reason to be afraid. It appears there is little reason to cancel sporting events that exclude fans from attending other than the loss of revenue. 

Still we appear to be in the infancy of this outbreak and currently no one really knows how severe it might be. I suspect in a couple of months we’ll know a lot more and older people will have good reason to feel threatened, or fears will subside. I’m an old coot with asthma and concerned but not overly worried. Hell I could die from a heart attack tomorrow. 

My gut feeling is we are going to look at this a year from now and say what the hell were we thinking. 

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23 hours ago, 4UNLV said:

FWIW, some of the makeshift hospitals in Wuhan have now closed, as the amount of sick people has decreased. Who knows how long it will take here..

You are ignorant!!!! this is not the 5 day flu!!!!

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7 hours ago, wolfpack1 said:

Part of the issue is that there is as much wrong or bad information as their is good information out there. The press reports part of the story not the entire story, they do leave out key points. Then you have doctors who won't even agree with each other. But the #1 issue is hysteria which is being caused by people all around. There have been some doctors in stories and TV saying canceling events and all that will not stop the virus from growing unless other measures are taken. 

Vast majority of people who have caught Corona Virus and died had other underlining health issues. Corona Virus has been around for several years hell, the clorex wipes that we bought last year at Costco, the first thing it lists as killing 99% of is Coronavirus. This might be a different strain but this disease is not anything new. People in this country started to panic when a few clusters came up and unforuately people passed because many of them had other health conditions. The truth is many people in this country would rather panic first then take a step back and think for a minute. This virus has been around and will be around for a long time just like many viruses are. They are working and testing a vaccine right now for the disease. There was this doctor I think on CNN, who was saying the press isn't helping matters but people really need to understand this disease. Its not instant death like some are saying but it is also nothing to wave off. There are also people that have been tested for this virus because of their prolonged exposure to someone who has it, and they never show any symptoms at all either. 

The suspensions of sports, events, and such is leading to more hysteria among the population instead of trying to educate the population about the virus. As more people are tested and more tests are performed the number of those infected is going to go up, but that isn't something to have hysteria either. In Italy and Germany there were talking about the peak might be in April for some reason, 

There is a lot of information out there from what they already know and stuff they are started to find out now as well. One doctor has said when the quarentine is let up in China there will be another outbreak in China. 

You my friend have incorrect info. Much different then I am getting in my job!!!  

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13 hours ago, Wyovanian said:

The "containment measures" on the Diamond Princess were considered a failure across the board, and, per one doctor from Johns Hopkins, "...set up the passengers to be picked off...".

According to the article, 322 people who tested positive were asymptomatic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-went-wrong-2020-2

Based on current infection rates, your projected 30% infection rate is pretty out there. It didn't even reach 20% in near perfect spread conditions. And, in China, after three months, the national infection rate is less than .01%, after three months marked by widespread failure at containment.

In other words, even if the infection rate in the U.S. were to somehow run double of what it did in China (which doesn't happen), we'd be looking at less than 640,000 people infected. Let's go with 25% requiring hospitalization- less than 160,000 people. Now let's go with your 3.4% fatality rate- less than 21,760 people dead. And, like I said, that is DOUBLE the infection rate in China, which is improbable. More probable is a LOWER infection rate than China, a lower severity rate than China, and a higher survivability rate than China. Suddenly, we're talking about fewer deaths than annual influenza being a more probable outcome.

You fail to understand my point. 

The DP was itself a contained environment; there were no transmission vectors unaccounted for, and it allowed us to calculate with a high degree of confidence the reproduction number under such conditions. 

And regardless of what the BI article says, I just spoon fed you source material from (1) the Centers for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRP), and (2) a joint-mission report from a panel of infectious disease specialists and mathematical epidemiologists from Kyoto University, Oxford, and Georgia State, which clearly stated your figure was incorrect.

If you are unable to decipher which baseline is more reliable, than there is an Alex Jones or Drudge Report article and a glass of Kool-Aid awaiting your attention.

Regarding infection rates, do you really want to have this discussion? :blink: Because you're using the wrong metric.

Infection rate modeling tends to be reactive, not predictive. So infection rate modeling gives you a crude approximation of the rate of infection is within a given population at that snapshot in time. In other words, we can see what the infection rate is right now within a given population:

(# infections / population at risk)k = infection rate, where k is an arbitrary constant meant to provide context to the metric. At it's most basic, k=100 is used to derive a percentage of the current infection rate.

So to use an example, in Sea-Tac there are appro. 3.5 million people. As of today, there are 457 infections in WA, all within the greater metropolitan region. So (457/3500000)*100 gives us an infection rate of 1.3%, meaning that as of today, March 13, 1.3% is the current rate of infection for Seattle. This tells us nothing about the predictive rate of transmission.

And as one final rebuttal to your constant stream of misinformation, as per the NYT today:

Quote

The CDC.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the CDC.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

Link

What was my estimate on the potential number of infections? 60 million to 200 symptomatic cases. What's the CDC's estimate? 160 million to 214 million. What was my estimate on potential fatalities? 1.5-5 million Americans. What's the CDC's estimate under the same conditions (complete containment failure)? 200K-1.7 million Americans. What was my estimate on the number of Americans requiring hospitalization? 6 million to 30 million Americans. What was the CDC's? 2.4 million to 21 million. 

Do you really not see the overlap? :blink:

So to recap:

1. There is significant overlap between my calculations and the CDC's own scenarios, including (1) the number of Americans requiring hospitalization and (2) the possible number of fatalities.

2. Disease statistics from the U.S. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, or from leading epidemiologists working with/for the WHO trumps a figure sourced from a Business Insider article.

3. Infection rates aren't predictive, but rather reactive, and serve little value in modeling the potential spread of an infectious disease.

Look man - I know I've covered this an infinitum before on the forum, but I happen to be a mathematician and data scientist an have been modeling data since the 1990s. I appreciate the engagement and thoroughly enjoy the discussion, but would simply request you to revisit your sources (as you keep promulgating bad data) and/or spend a little more time reading mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, BSUFan said:

What are the statistics related to my cousin and I at seven years playing in my back yard on a beautiful sunny summer day and a three inch branch snaps off the tree kills her instantly? Or my other cousin driving to visit us in Las Vegas and hitting a patch of black ice and flipping his car and dying alone on the road. How about my best friend and I getting our orders and his send him to Vietnam and mine send me home for a 28 day leave. Twelve days later while having a barbecue at his home with his wife and kids as a Navy Chaplain appears to ruin the day and our world?

As a society I guess we should quit playing in our back yard and absolutely must ban automobile travel as 3,287 DEATHS A DAY occur each year, day in and day out.  https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

The "experts" have stated the young are the least affected and may not even know they have the virus. Why is it most activities being canceled are activities our youth are involved with?

I guess I'll need to disconnect from the modern world as another coronal mass ejection as occurred in 1859 (Carrington Event) is inevitable and with our modern electric system will be devastating.

Excuse me but I just think this latest viral outbreak has been completely blown out of proportion.  Being cautious and aware is one thing, sensationalizing and paralyzing the world is another.

Fact is very few know when our time comes and to put the entire world in a tailspin to get clicks and views is just asinine in my view.

Call me some kind of special stupid but I just think the sun is going to come up tomorrow and my family, friends and I are going to enjoy each and every moment we have together and not obsess about what may or may not happen.

 

stay in Idaho because you are a whole

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3 hours ago, BSUFan said:

What are the statistics related to my cousin and I at seven years playing in my back yard on a beautiful sunny summer day and a three inch branch snaps off the tree kills her instantly? Or my other cousin driving to visit us in Las Vegas and hitting a patch of black ice and flipping his car and dying alone on the road. How about my best friend and I getting our orders and his send him to Vietnam and mine send me home for a 28 day leave. Twelve days later while having a barbecue at his home with his wife and kids as a Navy Chaplain appears to ruin the day and our world?

As a society I guess we should quit playing in our back yard and absolutely must ban automobile travel as 3,287 DEATHS A DAY occur each year, day in and day out.  https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

What "society" is that, exactly? Planet Earth's? :blink: Because that's a global figure, not a national statistic.

Imagine a half-million people dying every day. For a year. That's the potential covid-19 has.

F*ck, the stupid in some of these posts is legion...

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1 minute ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

ETAPKbbUwAAI1_9?format=png&name=900x900

Still tracking with Italy. 

The d2d delta in new confirmed cases and fatalities is the best indicator to assess how where a given locality is in their efforts to get ahead of the curve on containment.

Multiple epidemiologists have suggested we're on the same curve as Italy but just 10-14 days behind, which is frightening, and unfortunately supported by this graph.

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2 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

Latest expert comment about the duration of life disruptions? Up to 8 weeks or more:

 

I was talking with a good friend last night who's middle management at a large finance company about this. Even once we begin returning to a normal routine, the disruptions in supply chains are going to reverberate through global economies for months to come.

Remember, in 2008, it wasn't the subprime crisis, the housing crisis, or even CDC or other dark market derivative products - all were causal factors and individual dominoes - it was the resultant liquidity crisis that threatened to bring the wheels of global trade and lending to a complete halt. Should that happen, then or now, there goes the whole ball of wax.

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The US has had exponentially more deaths this flu season than the 41 deaths from the CVirus so far.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

The fact that people are more concerned about COVID-19 than the flu virus is no surprise, says Dr. Adalja. “Anytime there is a new emerging infectious disease that is shrouded in mystery with a lot of unknowns, it captivates people in a way that a regular virus that people deal with on a yearly basis won’t,” he says. 

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44 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

The d2d delta in new confirmed cases and fatalities is the best indicator to assess how where a given locality is in their efforts to get ahead of the curve on containment.

Multiple epidemiologists have suggested we're on the same curve as Italy but just 10-14 days behind, which is frightening, and unfortunately supported by this graph.

On the bright side we’re 10 to 14 days ahead on public awareness and response. The government is not going to blunt this thing, it’ll be us.

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