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Corona Virus potential long term impact?

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24 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Damn. It seems way too early for this to be happening.

Any source that the Midwest location he is referring to is in Michigan? 

Of course now he’s walking it back saying he didn’t “independently verify” the source. I think it’s a leaked document regarding their emergency scenario. 

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2 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Yep. :(

Screen-Shot-2020-03-26-at-10-34-41-PM.pn

Well shit. I was hoping someone would prove it was false. That’s heart wrenching. 

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1 minute ago, Mad_Hatter said:

Well shit. I was hoping someone would prove it was false. That’s heart wrenching. 

Sadly, it's to be expected with the case doubling rates many places are experiencing. This is from NYC:

 

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2 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Sadly, it's to be expected with the case doubling rates many places are experiencing. This is from NYC:

 

I was expecting it too but like you said, not this soon. Michigan got overwhelmed in a hurry. 

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On 3/15/2020 at 9:13 AM, MWC Tex said:

I hope we shut everything down when the flu season hits every year.  We will be able save more lives.  50,000 people died from the flu, 51,000,000 were infected 650,000 were hospitalized.  144 children died from the flu this year... 0 from the covid19.
 

Even people who had the virus are saying wtf with the panic. 

The media hype machine is sickening.   
 

 

Be careful, man. The people who are stupid, do not know that they are. If your mind can even drift to violence over something like this, it's pretty obvious where your intelligence level lies. 

I can admit that there are inconsiderate people and people who lack knowledge of how germs work, who spread their germs and affect others. I can likewise admit that education and getting awareness out there is good, but an all out panic and shut down is bad.

The fact that this has devolved into factions of infighters and suggestions of violence is absurd. Some stupid person is going to do some version of that.

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Hate to be a downer, but I think it’s inevitable the majority of us are eventually going to get this. It’s way more contagious than the flu and we can’t shelter for a year until a vaccine can be produced. 

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I noticed clownfish, er @qwelish facepalmed a post about the importance of reducing infection rates to save lives.

Hey f*ckface - why don't you do humanity a favor and take your hemraphrodite microdick down to your local dollar store to go lick shopping carts. Lick all of them. And then lock your f*cktarded ass into an airtight room for the next two months.

I'm sure medical professionals like @Lobo Amor, or those who's family members are on the front line like @Broncomare, or those who have family members fighting this disease like @halfmanhalfbronco are all appreciative of your blatant disregard for math, science, and the welfare of others. Dipshit. :waiting:

Screen-Shot-2020-03-28-at-9-30-59-AM.png

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23 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Hate to be a downer, but I think it’s inevitable the majority of us are eventually going to get this. It’s way more contagious than the flu and we can’t shelter for a year until a vaccine can be produced. 

The shelter-in-place strategies have been shown to effectively lower transmission of the virus, but as you mention, the status quo is not sustainable in the long term. 

I holdout hope that human ingenuity and technology can be brought to bare to address this on a shorter timeline, and in the meantime, that we'll find a way to adapt.

And FWIW, provided re-infection does not occur at significant rates, epidemiology models suggest that once approx. 2/3 of a population is immune (through exposure, vaccination, et al) that enough natural transmission chains are broken to make it difficult for an epidemic to occur (herd immunity).

Our solution - as a country, and as a species - will likely fall somewhere along or across those lines.

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On 3/27/2020 at 12:39 AM, Mad_Hatter said:

Well shit. I was hoping someone would prove it was false. That’s heart wrenching. 

I wonder how many of the 877 beds have Covid patients and how many are with heart attacks, flu, accidents and other diseases.   We will never know because that gives panic news.

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26 minutes ago, MWC Tex said:

I wonder how many of the 877 beds have Covid patients and how many are with heart attacks, flu, accidents and other diseases.   We will never know because that gives panic news.

You make an important point that too often gets overlooked in the discussion.

Just because Idaho has 555 ICU beds statewide doesn't mean it has 555 beds available. According to this article in the Statesman, as per Harvard's recent study, only 155-244 of them are or would be available for COVID-19 patients:

Quote

 

Idaho has 555 intensive care unit beds statewide, according to the Idaho Hospital Association. Those numbers are based on what hospitals report to the state. (Data from the American Hospital Directory show that more than 100 ICU beds in the state are for children and babies, who typically haven’t needed critical care for the virus.)

Those ICU beds are not sitting empty. They hold patients with heart attacks, car crash injuries and other serious health problems that don’t stop happening when a pandemic begins.

The Harvard study determined that, based on the usual number of beds taken up already, Idaho hospitals would have between 155 and 244 ICU beds to hold COVID-19 patients.

 

 

And here's Harvard's model run of the resulting overcapacity Boise can anticipate for given infection rates (and a presumed 20% hospitalization rate) over 6, 12, and 18-month periods:

Screen-shot-2020-03-28-at-10-22-22-AM.pn

...and for Dallas:

Screen-shot-2020-03-28-at-10-20-49-AM.pn

 

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The latest model runs from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis out of the Imperial College of London suggest that current suppression strategies - if implemented while death rates are at or below .2 deaths/week per 100,000 population - fatalities can be reduced by 95% or more.

And if suppression measures are put into place once death rates are 1.6/week per 100,000, they can still be reduced by +/-80%.

This comes with a laundry list of caveats regarding suppression strategies (e.g., reduing social contact by indivudals over 70 by 60%), but shows that it's doable.

For reference, at present, the W2W global death rate is presently at .2/week per 100,000 people. But this has to be looked at in the context of individual locations. For instance, in Italy, their death rate is 7.2/week per 100,000 people. And the current death rate in the US is .5/week per 100,000 people, meaning we're more likely to see closer to an 80% reduction in fatalities if we maintain these suppression strategies.

Link to report

 

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

You make an important point that too often gets overlooked in the discussion.

Just because Idaho has 555 ICU beds statewide doesn't mean it has 555 beds available. According to this article in the Statesman, as per Harvard's recent study, only 155-244 of them are or would be available for COVID-19 patients:

 

And here's Harvard's model run of the resulting overcapacity Boise can anticipate for given infection rates (and a presumed 20% hospitalization rate) over 6, 12, and 18-month periods:

Screen-shot-2020-03-28-at-10-22-22-AM.pn

...and for Dallas:

 

Just to expand on that data a little.

New York is providing us a look at the US situation and numbers.

The above Harvard model used a 1/5 or 20% of diagnosed cases hospitalization rate.

As of yesterday, New York was running at a 17% overall diagnosed case hospitalization rate.

New York is running close to the numbers used by Harvard in the modeling for percentage of diagnosed cases hospitalized.

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2 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

Just to expand on that data a little.

New York is providing us a look at the US situation and numbers.

The above Harvard model used a 1/5 or 20% of diagnosed cases hospitalization rate.

As of yesterday, New York was running at a 17% overall diagnosed case hospitalization rate.

New York is running close to the numbers used by Harvard in the modeling for percentage of diagnosed cases hospitalized.

Pending today's update, NYC is trending even closer to the model at 18.9%:

Screen-shot-2020-03-28-at-2-37-34-PM.png

Similarly pending today's update, San DIego County is currently realizing a 20.3% hospitalization rate and a 9.1% ICU admission rate:

Screen-shot-2020-03-28-at-2-36-58-PM.png

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Thanks for the updated numbers.

I've been saying thru most of this that it is the medical system capacity, not deaths or even number of cases that is going to be the issue.

That 9.1% of diagnosed cases needing an ICU is concerning, that is higher than some other numbers I saw previously.

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21 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

Thanks for the updated numbers.

I've been saying thru most of this that it is the medical system capacity, not deaths or even number of cases that is going to be the issue.

That 9.1% of diagnosed cases needing an ICU is concerning, that is higher than some other numbers I saw previously.

Yep. It compounds what is already a deadly pandemic by an order of magnitude. 

While I haven't really gone looking elsewhere, and given it's a small sample size, Idaho is also trending to the model's hospitalization rate at 19.7%:

Screen-Shot-2020-03-28-at-3-58-23-PM.png

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44 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Yep. It compounds what is already a deadly pandemic by an order of magnitude. 

While I haven't really gone looking elsewhere, and given it's a small sample size, Idaho is also trending to the model's hospitalization rate at 19.7%:

Screen-Shot-2020-03-28-at-3-58-23-PM.png

My mom works at St Alphonsis here in Boise.  She has shared some emails with me.  Basicslly long story short, Boise is going to be +++++ed.  They also had a surgeon test positive.  He had been doing procedures and rounding visits all week....

I would ask that info not leave this board.

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17 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

My mom works at St Alphonsis here in Boise.  She has shared some emails with me.  Basicslly long story short, Boise is going to be +++++ed.  They also had a surgeon test positive.  He had been doing procedures and rounding visits all week....

I would ask that info not leave this board.

jack black wtf GIF

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5 more weeks before anything starts to wind down. Settle in for awhile.

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Its going to be an ugly ride.  China did contain it - with extreme measures.  I don't think we can implement anything close to that (nor should we - welding doors closed in apartment buildings, shooting people with symptoms).   Hopefully, the fatality rate is accurate, and the long term after affects don't matter much.  Unfortunately, it looks like everyone that gets this gets some sort of lung disease/disfunction.

Only time can tell.

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