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westfan

Corona Virus potential long term impact?

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1 hour ago, DestinFlPackfan said:

So, your saying. ...this is not heavier than air nor lighter....it just hangs in the ' inbetween'?

Correct - for a particulate to remain suspended in a medium, it is neither heavier nor lighter than the medium itself. That being said, if you've ever observed dust motes in a ray of sunlight, I imagine most particulates settle on a surface eventually.

 

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1 hour ago, SJ PRIDE said:

Great find, terrible news.  Say an individual had access to as many N95 masks as they needed, would it be prudent to start wearing them in public at all times?  I get test fitted every year.

I think it is imperative to remember that there is a very high priority that healthcare workers have access to these masks. Our doctors and nurses are our nation's front line warriors in this battle. If they start going off line, we trend towards worst case scenarios.

So please, PLEASE do not procure or otherwise acquire (let alone hoard!) any more than necessary, as there is a critical shortage in supply right now.

That being said...

As luck would have it, I picked up a 3-pack of N95 masks and a pair of 3M P100 half-face respirators in advance of replacing a section moldy drywall last year (I over-purchase to avoid return trips to Home Depot).  And as luck would have it, I only used one of the three N95s, which I kept, sanitized, and still have.

The NIH published a study that found that the N95 and P100 were effective in filtering out >98% and 99.7% of an aerosolized virus, respectively (link).

Yesterday was the first day my wife and I wore masks to the store(s). We have a 1-3 month supply of household essentials, food, drinking water, etc., but I would estimate we have about 3 weeks worth of TP. So rather than wait until there is a need, we are looking now, as well as proactively looking to stay ahead of the curve and top off stocks on things in the event one of us becomes ill (Nyquil, cough drops, etc.). We went to a half-dozen stores yesterday just to see how bad things were, and found empty shelf after empty shelf. As we're already well-stocked, it was more surreal than anything else.

And amongst stores, and including the Costco gas station, we saw a total of three people wearing masks. 

Today was a different story. Different Costco, and I would estimate we saw +/-30 other people wearing masks. And do not be ashamed nor afraid to ask others to maintain "new social distance standards." Between yesterday and today I asked three people - kindly - to respect the CDC guidelines, and no one has had an issue complying.

 

tl;dr: Yes. Despite the CDC's guidelines - which are important for the reasons mentioned - if you are in a community that has registered multiple cases of community spread, you might be well-advised to wear an N95 when you are amongst the genpop making shopping trips. If you are in such a community, the probability of exposure is going to trend towards 1 in the weeks to come.

But please, please do not procure not otherwise acquire (let alone hoard!) any more than is necessary for he aforementioned reasons. I would estimate 1.5 per person in the household who might be tasked with making runs to the store.

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2 hours ago, westfan said:

Back to the original topic, I fully know how serious this virus is, but I will go through NCAA tournament withdrawal starting Thursday.:(

My heart was broken the day they announced it was off. The #SanDiegoSporsCurse continues.

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3 hours ago, Rebels2k3 said:

It's think it's good practice in general for people to wear masks when they are sick (see Japan). Something Americans need to do more often

Some masks are ineffective, must be m95 masks.the Blue surgeon masks you usually see only prevents snot or coughs from dripping everywhere. The air still gets in through the sides.m95 masks cover it all up. 

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6 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

READ THIS

This is something of a game changer and helps explain the high transmissibility and projected rate of infection.

A study was conducted by virologists at the CDC, NIH, Princeton, and UCLA and is awaiting peer review. They found that HCoV-19 - the virus that causes COVID-19 - remains viable as an aerosol with a half-life of 2.7 hours. The study was in an environment with 65%RH and between 70-73 degrees, and it is believe the half-life is variable and dependent on these two conditions.

This means that the virus doesn't have to be transmitted by way of droplets expelled when a person coughs or sneezes. It can be exhaled and remain airborne and contagious in aerosol form for about 3 hours. 

Link

I don't agree with a lot of what you say on the non sports board, but I just wanted to thank you for the work you've put into finding studies and statistics about the virus and sharing them with us in an easy to understand way. This knowledge can help keep all of us safe. Kudos to you sir.

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41 minutes ago, Rosegreen said:

Some masks are ineffective, must be m95 masks.the Blue surgeon masks you usually see only prevents snot or coughs from dripping everywhere. The air still gets in through the sides.m95 masks cover it all up. 

Surgeon masks can be useful in general, especially if you have a cold/flu and don't want to get people sick. In general, masks being worn in Japan and elsewhere limit the spread of germs from sick people. For the coronavirus itself, the N95 mask is probably the most effective. Again, it's a small thing that can go a long way for public health

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9 hours ago, Rebels2k3 said:

Surgeon masks can be useful in general, especially if you have a cold/flu and don't want to get people sick. In general, masks being worn in Japan and elsewhere limit the spread of germs from sick people. For the coronavirus itself, the N95 mask is probably the most effective. Again, it's a small thing that can go a long way for public health

An NIH report on a test against an aerosolized virus in found that the N95 masks and P100 filters/masks successfully filtered out ≥98% and 99.7%, respectively (link).

That being said, for those of us who are not in healthcare, it is important to note that there is a critical global shortage of N95 masks for healthcare workers at the moment, and they should be given priority as they don't have the ability to self-isolate. 

 

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This is why is is so damn important that more people start taking this shit seriously. The people in Italy didn't at first. And now crisis management officials in Turin are preparing for the contingency of having to triage patients.

Hopefully, this article underscores the criticality of isolation and social distancing.

Quote

Italians over 80 'will be left to die' as country overwhelmed by coronavirus

Hardest-hit region drafts new proposals saying who will live and who will die

Coronavirus victims in Italy will be denied access to intensive care if they are aged 80 or more or in poor health should pressure on beds increase, a document prepared by a crisis management unit in Turin proposes.

Link

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15 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

This is why is is so damn important that more people start taking this shit seriously. The people in Italy didn't at first. And now crisis management officials in Turin are preparing for the contingency of having to triage patients.

Hopefully, this article underscores the criticality of isolation and social distancing.

Link

WooHoo!  Medicare for all!!

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Let's bring Kim Jong Un over to run the country to run the place if we don't care about lives.  Or only let the ICU beds be available to the highest bidder.   We are  are lower class serfs if this country doesn't care about equality.

 

Its going to be a tough haul going ahead.  We are a hell of alot smarter than we were 100 years ago.  We aren't going to make the right decisions every time. A  pandemic is among us.  Help your family, friends, and coworkers out.  Everything is going to be working against you for the foreseeable future. 

 

Lets just hope there isn't an alien invasion, terrorist attack, earthquake, asteroid, or anything else in the next few months.

 

God Bless.

 

 

 

 

 

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According to a report released just yesterday by the Imperial College of London, as per their own modeling social distancing is the single largest causal factor in reducing the severity of the pandemic.

Quote

"We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half."

Link

And according to the report, their model predicts that if unmitigated there will be approx. 2.2 million deaths in the US, but with a very concerting caveat:

Quote

"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

Link

Their model also predicts the entire epidemic curve:

Screen-Shot-2020-03-17-at-7-25-09-PM.png

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

According to a report released just yesterday by the Imperial College of London, as per their own modeling social distancing is the single largest causal factor in reducing the severity of the pandemic.

Link

And according to the report, their model predicts that if unmitigated there will be approx. 2.2 million deaths in the US, but with a very concerting caveat:

Link

Their model also predicts the entire epidemic curve:

Screen-Shot-2020-03-17-at-7-25-09-PM.png

Models vs real data.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

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On 3/15/2020 at 10:01 PM, Del Scorcho said:

Its amazing to me that there are people here with little to no regard to the grief and suffering of others due to this event.  

It's as if they are welcoming a thinning of the herd, so to speak.  

I just hope those that feel this way are directly affected in some way 

Karma

 

This has been my biggest takeaway. It's been shocking to me how many of the light targeted groups have almost a pride of nonconcern for the more susceptible. "Hey, it's not me. Why should I give a feck?" 

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35 minutes ago, MWC Tex said:

To help lend perspective, the CDC estimates influenza has killed as many as 55,000 Americans this year. As per the real data, this is 10x to 35x more deadly than the flu. 

And by contrast to the CDC's estimates for this year's flu, if we don't do everything we can to contain it, we could see a period where we realize over 50,000 deaths in this country each day.

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8 hours ago, Headbutt said:

WooHoo!  Medicare for all!!

That’s part of the problem over there. They can’t care for everyone despite everyone having a right to it. End up deciding who lives and dies. Real sad situation.
 

The other issue is that they didn’t protect their citizens and didn’t ban travel from China until it was too late. 

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49 minutes ago, Rosegreen said:

That’s part of the problem over there. They can’t care for everyone despite everyone having a right to it. End up deciding who lives and dies. Real sad situation.
 

The other issue is that they didn’t protect their citizens and didn’t ban travel from China until it was too late. 

We got a head-start on them by shitcanning the entire working group on the NSC who's job was to protect us from pandemics a whole two years ago.

And enough with the false dichotomy re: free healthcare. Canada, France, and the UK have never had to triage sick people due to a lack of hospital beds or ventilators. That's simply a lie. And the same extraordinary circumstance that is resulting in this possibility elsewhere will result in it here as well.

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2 hours ago, kingpotato said:

This has been my biggest takeaway. It's been shocking to me how many of the light targeted groups have almost a pride of nonconcern for the more susceptible. "Hey, it's not me. Why should I give a feck?" 

It’s actually a fairly normal human reaction unless it affects you, a family member, or someone you’re close to. You might be concerned, but it doesn’t really hit home until you are personally affected. There are thousands of deaths from multiple causes every year yet most people still go about their daily lives without giving it a second thought.

Hell Im pretty blasé about it myself and I’m in the old age at risk group with asthma. I’m sure I’ll be a lot more concerned if my wife or I become infected. Meanwhile we are just hunkered down like most everyone else. 

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On 3/13/2020 at 6:59 PM, Pokes Forever said:

Alarmists vs deniers.....nobody wins and not one mind is changed.  Real question is when we will see the first post proclaiming the preseason conference and national championship from the Boise brigade!

3 months ago.

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