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westfan

Corona Virus potential long term impact?

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3 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Listening to the debate both Biden and Sanders advocated for the government paying people that are staying home from work. Trump may do the same. Just think what that would add to the debt. The flip side is it will keep people solvent. In any regard I can’t help but think this virus is going to inflict some heavy nonpartisan damage on the economy. 

The debt and deficit was a problem for the last 10 years that everybody blew off. Right now it’s not a concern. We can repay crisis spending. Juicing the market for re-election purposes that everyone did the past decade is the problem.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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11 hours ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

And I would argue to both of you that it’s perfectly protected speech to shout fire in a crowded theatre if there is a fire. There is a fire here.

I think a better analogy would have been if I had compared it to someone in WW2 complaining that they can talk to whomever and whatever the hell they want to talk about - because this is America, damnit - despite the concern that...

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It is worth pointing out that in the absence of containment, as per the epidemiology SI models it is pretty much a mathematical certainty at present that every single American will be exposed.

The only individuals who will not get exposed are those who successfully isolate themselves from the rest of the population until we're on the back side of the pandemic curve,

If we assume this to be 10% of the genpop, with the remaining 90% susceptible and the measured 83% secondary attack rate, approx. 250 million Americans will be exposed, of which approx. 200 million will develop symptoms, of which approx. 10 million will require intensive care.

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8 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

It is worth pointing out that in the absence of containment, as per the epidemiology SI models it is pretty much a mathematical certainty at present that every single American will be exposed.

The only individuals who will not get exposed are those who successfully isolate themselves from the rest of the population until we're on the back side of the pandemic curve,

If we assume this to be 10% of the genpop, with the remaining 90% susceptible and the measured 83% secondary attack rate, approx. 250 million Americans will be exposed, of which approx. 200 million will develop symptoms, of which approx. 10 million will require intensive care.

Voluntary and involuntary containment is happening so hopefully the number of those infected will be far less. 

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51 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

The debt and deficit was a problem for the last 10 years that everybody blew off. Right now it’s not a concern. We can repay crisis spending. Juicing the market for re-election purposes that everyone did the past decade is the problem.

I don't know about 10 years. 10 years ago the economy was still weak as shit and stimulus spending was necessary. But at least the last five or six years? It's been ridiculous.  

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5 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

It is worth pointing out that in the absence of containment, as per the epidemiology SI models it is pretty much a mathematical certainty at present that every single American will be exposed.

The only individuals who will not get exposed are those who successfully isolate themselves from the rest of the population until we're on the back side of the pandemic curve,

If we assume this to be 10% of the genpop, with the remaining 90% susceptible and the measured 83% secondary attack rate, approx. 250 million Americans will be exposed, of which approx. 200 million will develop symptoms, of which approx. 10 million will require intensive care.

Ya but wut a bout kar aksidents and kanser?!?

Yes. Most of us will get it. This little time out is about flattening the curve so we all don't get it at once. 

 

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14 minutes ago, toonkee said:

Ya but wut a bout kar aksidents and kanser?!?

Yes. Most of us will get it. This little time out is about flattening the curve so we all don't get it at once. 

 

That’s a dire prediction. If true and 1% die that’s 3,000,000 people. I’m a lot more optimistic than that. But I also believe Boise State will eventually win an NCAA tournament game. 

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13 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

That’s a dire prediction. If true and 1% die that’s 3,000,000 people. I’m a lot more optimistic than that. But I also believe Boise State will eventually win an NCAA tournament game. 

Hospitalization rate is going to crush us if we don't buy that time.  Montana has 400 open isolation beds,  at 20% hospitalization rate there are simply not enough beds if we don't shut the place down.  a1% death rate is very reasonable overall with some areas higher then others.

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5 hours ago, Bob said:

When do you think the market will bottom out?

Nobody knows. Bottom is probably this week and next. 
 

Imo, best case scenario we’ll see a market recovery in 2 weeks to mid-April, basically it’s going to remain volatile until Dr. Fauci comes out and says we are ahead of the curve, things will return to normal. 

It is going to be a tough couple weeks but we’ll get through it and better days are ahead. 

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5 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

That’s a dire prediction. If true and 1% die that’s 3,000,000 people. I’m a lot more optimistic than that. But I also believe Boise State will eventually win an NCAA tournament game. 

The reduced epidemiological models indicate that in the absence of isolation everyone will be exposed, and the virus has been shown to have an attack rate of 83%, meaning that 83% of the people exposed to it will become infected. That translates to about 270,000,000 people in this country.

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READ THIS

This is something of a game changer and helps explain the high transmissibility and projected rate of infection.

A study was conducted by virologists at the CDC, NIH, Princeton, and UCLA and is awaiting peer review. They found that HCoV-19 - the virus that causes COVID-19 - remains viable as an aerosol with a half-life of 2.7 hours. The study was in an environment with 65%RH and between 70-73 degrees, and it is believe the half-life is variable and dependent on these two conditions.

This means that the virus doesn't have to be transmitted by way of droplets expelled when a person coughs or sneezes. It can be exhaled and remain airborne and contagious in aerosol form for about 3 hours. 

Link

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2 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

READ THIS

This is something of a game changer and helps explain the high transmissibility and projected rate of infection.

A study was conducted by virologists at the CDC, NIH, Princeton, and UCLA and is awaiting peer review. They found that HCoV-19 - the virus that causes COVID-19 - remains viable as an aerosol with a half-life of 2.7 hours. The study was in an environment with 65%RH and between 70-73 degrees, and it is believe the half-life is variable and dependent on these two conditions.

This means that the virus doesn't have to be transmitted by way of droplets expelled when a person coughs or sneezes. It can be exhaled and remain airborne and contagious in aerosol form for about 3 hours. 

Link

So, your saying. ...this is not heavier than air nor lighter....it just hangs in the ' inbetween'?

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2 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

READ THIS

This is something of a game changer and helps explain the high transmissibility and projected rate of infection.

A study was conducted by virologists at the CDC, NIH, Princeton, and UCLA and is awaiting peer review. They found that HCoV-19 - the virus that causes COVID-19 - remains viable as an aerosol with a half-life of 2.7 hours. The study was in an environment with 65%RH and between 70-73 degrees, and it is believe the half-life is variable and dependent on these two conditions.

This means that the virus doesn't have to be transmitted by way of droplets expelled when a person coughs or sneezes. It can be exhaled and remain airborne and contagious in aerosol form for about 3 hours. 

Link

Great find, terrible news.  Say an individual had access to as many N95 masks as they needed, would it be prudent to start wearing them in public at all times?  I get test fitted every year.

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40 minutes ago, SJ PRIDE said:

Great find, terrible news.  Say an individual had access to as many N95 masks as they needed, would it be prudent to start wearing them in public at all times?  I get test fitted every year.

It's think it's good practice in general for people to wear masks when they are sick (see Japan). Something Americans need to do more often

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