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westfan

Corona Virus potential long term impact?

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Supposed to fly to Florida Wednesday and chill on the beach in siesta keys til Saturday. Is that selfish of me?

 

i can maintain a good distance on the beach amirite

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So far, it seems about 70% of the people understand the magnitude of the threat - both direct and indirect - this presents to our lives.

The other 30% think the Bundesliga, EPL, NCAA, NBA, MLB, NHL, CDC, media, airline industry, hospitality industry, cruise industry, and the economies of Austria, Italy, UK, and Germany are all part of the "Deep State" conspiracy to make Trump look bad. :waiting:

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4 minutes ago, Bob said:

You realize in China, a country of 1. however billion people, there have been what, 5k deaths. Why aren't millions upon millions dying in China? It's because the virus hasn't and won't behave anything like the doomsayers are predicting. It's fairly obvious by now. 

Incorrectomundo Bob. It's because China locked their shit down like a penitentiary so they could get in front of it.

There is more than enough data to derive a statistically valid fatality rate and to study the causal factors that account for the wide variance.

Paper after paper have been published by mathematical epidemiologists. Most of us are smart enough to trust the experts (or at least believe the science). Some of us are even able to speak their language. But others of us seem to nuthug ignorance like it was the last roll of toilet paper in Seattle.

And it's the latter group that will determine - by their actions - whether we experience a fatality rate closer to Germany's or Italy's.

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44 minutes ago, Bob said:

You know the really scary thing about this situation? People will say it was the draconian measures we allowed governments to impose on us will be the thing that saved us. That's terrifying

That is indeed a frightening prospect and one we must all remain every bit as vigilant about once this thing has blown over just as we all need to be now so that it does blow over with minimal impact.

And let me approach this from a different angle - if we don't all do our part now to minimize the fallout, how does it impact your thoughts on this if/when Trump declares martial law and imposes restrictions meant to curtail movements within our own respective communities?

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I think we can all agree the toilet paper, water hoarding and grocery store raiding is a bit much, and of course the media is sensational, but to those of you poo pooing the whole thing...you don't know shit. Nobody really does right now.  You're on the other side of the toilet paper hoarder coin.

And your "uh actually, lots of people die I'm so practical" argument doesn't make you look smart or wise or cool or above it all. Just letting you know. 

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1 minute ago, toonkee said:

I think we can all agree the toilet paper, water hoarding and grocery store raiding is a bit much, and of course the media is sensational, but to those of you poo pooing the whole thing...you don't know shit. Nobody really does right now.  You're on the other side of the toilet paper hoarder coin.

And your "uh actually, lots of people die I'm so practical" argument doesn't make you look smart or wise or cool or above it all. Just letting you know. 

It's a red herring.* 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* If red herrings had a crack dependency and carried switchblades and handguns

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9 hours ago, Wyovanian said:

And if the stampede kills more people than the fire?

So far the stampede has amounted to long lines at Costco and a few white trash scuffles over toilet paper. It better resembles Black Friday commerce than mass hysteria at this point.

Meanwhile, the fire fire kills more people than the day before, every single day, despite countries basically shutting down.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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6 hours ago, bornsilverandblue said:

And then there are those who understand that, yes, there are those among the infected who will die.  But just like there is zero reason anyone has to die on roadways, there is zero reason anyone not currently infected needs to have that change.  If there are no more infections, there will be no more dying from it.  And that should be the goal.  Is it pragmatic?  Probably not.  But if you think you can hit the moon, shoot for the stars instead.  If you think you can curb transmissions, try to end them completely.  If you “merely” curb them, at least you still haven’t completely failed.

You do not operate in the natural world, clearly. As long as you share the planet with other humans, other animals, and the wild swirls of nature itself, people are going to die.

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Climate change deniers after decades of science... "the science isn't in yet".

Corona virus poo pooers after 1 month of  incomplete data..."I know everything I need to know to make a big picture wise judgement for me and everyone else”.

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1 minute ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

So far the stampede has amounted to long lines at Costco and a few white trash scuffles over toilet paper. It better resembles Black Friday commerce than mass hysteria at this point.

Meanwhile, the fire fire kills more people than the day before, every single day, despite countries basically shutting down.

And people out of work, people that are the most economically vulnerable, living paycheck to paycheck, who will likely never be affected by the virus. How about a nice big explosion in the homeless population due to people losing their homes? That ought to improve the situation. What happens when civil disobedience flares and violence follows? 

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60 Minutes-Australia showed this story last week about “wet markets” on their program. Extremely eye opening stuff.

 

"Make a mistake once and it becomes a lesson, make the same mistake twice and it becomes a choice."
 

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Incorrectomundo Bob. It's because China locked their shit down like a penitentiary so they could get in front of it.

There is more than enough data to derive a statistically valid fatality rate and to study the causal factors that account for the wide variance.

Paper after paper have been published by mathematical epidemiologists. Most of us are smart enough to trust the experts (or at least believe the science). Some of us are even able to speak their language. But others of us seem to nuthug ignorance like it was the last roll of toilet paper in Seattle.

And it's the latter group that will determine - by their actions - whether we experience a fatality rate closer to Germany's or Italy's.

We know who the vulnerable population is. Why didn't we isolate them instead of upending the lives of people least likely to be affected?

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10 minutes ago, Wyovanian said:

And people out of work, people that are the most economically vulnerable, living paycheck to paycheck, who will likely never be affected by the virus. How about a nice big explosion in the homeless population due to people losing their homes? That ought to improve the situation. What happens when civil disobedience flares and violence follows? 

When that happens we’ll have crimes to investigate. We’re looking at an optimistic death rate of 10 times deadlier than the flu that is twice as contagious. If those numbers hold and we did nothing, 70 million sick Americans equate to more dead than in the entire civil war. Civil unrest and violence, while still a problem, have never come close to that.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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10 minutes ago, Wyovanian said:

We know who the vulnerable population is. Why didn't we isolate them instead of upending the lives of people least likely to be affected?

Easy there FDR. The government is asking us to stay home and watch tv or read a book. Rounding up a couple dozen million people to segregate them from the population doesn’t sound very civil libertarian, does it?

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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7 hours ago, Wyovanian said:

So you're demanding sympathy from someone who doesn't really know you, your grandmother, or your uncle and are willing to threaten violence if you don't get it?

Sounds reasonable...

My take is that he was appealing to the poster's empathy which, clearly, that person seems incapable of.  Big difference...  

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Since sports are shelved for the time being,
 

I’m focused completely on the stock market, it’s crazy how DOW was trending to 30k but then this virus hit. 
 

I was going to add to my position on Friday but held off. Thankfully, I held off. Now I’m not sure when the right time to pounce is, might be awhile during this sell off but there’s going to be a lot of money to be made when the market rebounds. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob said:

When do you think the market will bottom out?

I say when there is a better handle on the trend of infected cases. When the infection rate starts dropping the market will start rising. If it keeps rising the market will continue dropping. 

If this continues on for any extended period the damage to the economy could be devastating. It’s bad enough right now. 

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52 minutes ago, Wyovanian said:

We know who the vulnerable population is. Why didn't we isolate them instead of upending the lives of people least likely to be affected?

That would be one strategy, yes.

However, @thelawlorfaithful has addressed the problematic philosophical/ideological issues with this approach, which certainly runs afoul of the personal freedoms you worry will be encroached upon during the course of individual sacrifice.

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5 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

I say a week to two weeks when there is a better handle on the trend of infected cases. When the infection rate starts dropping the market will start rising. If it keeps rising the market will continue dropping. 

I guess the better question then is, should the infection rate continue to rise, where's the market's bottom?

I've posted here on several occasions over the past three years about a good friend who is in middle management for a large (Fortune 100) finance firm was sent with a bunch of colleagues to caucus with the chief economist at JP Morgan Chase in Jan 2017, who informed them that they (JP Morgan Chase) were planning for an aggregate 5% market growth over the next five years. 

And there are a lot of pathways to get there from where we are right now.

 

 

ETA: FWIW - and I say this from firsthand experience now - epidemiology modeling is a hell of a lot easier than attempting to project short-term stock movement. If stock modeling was as easy as infectious disease modeling, I'd have FU money by now.

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Listening to the debate both Biden and Sanders advocated for the government paying people that are staying home from work. Trump may do the same. Just think what that would add to the debt. The flip side is it will keep people solvent. In any regard I can’t help but think this virus is going to inflict some heavy nonpartisan damage on the economy. 

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