Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

westfan

Corona Virus potential long term impact?

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, Rebels2k3 said:

Guy, you can cherry pick "data" all you want. The numbers right now are hardly the benchmarks of veracity. When those same people are adding the caveat of a possible infection rate MULTIPLE TIMES higher (which is more likely than not), the mortality rate drops by the same factor.

Interesting that the first link leads with an admonition that it is not peer-reviewed. And nothing in there about Spanish flu and how it spread during, then shortly after WWI...

"A smaller study today based on 52 critically ill patients at a Wuhan hospital confirms this finding. Thirty-two of the 52 critically ill patients (61.5%) died, and older age and acute respiratory distress syndrome were correlated with mortality." Kind of an important detail, wouldn't you say?

That article goes on to explain the mortality rate is derived from confirmed case, which, most, if not all of them are saying is probably wildly inaccurate.

If all you know how to believe is what you are told, you really need to evaluate your notion of critical thought and your ability to understand truth through forests of numbers and opinions. History is MY guide...

Image result for h.l. mencken quotes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, bigd said:

It’s honestly so crazy. Only 3300 people have died worldwide. Most of those in China which is a country with 1.2 billion.

The flu, heart disease, traffic fatalities, domestic violence, etc kill way more. Why are we going crazy over this?

what am I missing?

New world sensationalism? Twitter educated populace? Entitled people?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Wyovanian said:

Let's extrapolate to the next level of this logic- we KNOW that flu kills. This flu season, it has killed 16k and hopsitalized 280k. Do those lives not matter? Why don't we just cancel all these events indefinitely in order to save 16,000 lives?

Who knows, in particularly bad future flu seasons we could see governments and organizations take the same actions as we are seeing this week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, bigd said:

It’s honestly so crazy. Only 3300 people have died worldwide. Most of those in China which is a country with 1.2 billion.

The flu, heart disease, traffic fatalities, domestic violence, etc kill way more. Why are we going crazy over this?

what am I missing?

This is patently incorrect.

Screen-Shot-2020-03-12-at-7-22-40-PM.png

At present, there is plenty of valid data to trust the veracity of the numbers officially published by the CDC, NIH, and WHO, as well as their respective international counterparts.

Baselines for the two key metrics to consider - the crude fatality rate (CFR) and how contagious the pathogen is (referred to as the reproductive number, or R0) - have been established in multiple localities. And both vary from country to country. This is a result of identified correlates, such as age demographics, co-morbid conditions, and the degree to which various countries' agencies are either in front of, or behind, in their respective efforts of containment.

On one hand, the ROK has been very effective in testing, isolating, and proactively contact tracing. Both the R0 and the CFR are low compared to other countries. Italy on the other hand, has been experiencing both a higher rate of transmission and a higher fatality rate. Both metrics are dynamic and not only expected to differ from location to location but over time at the same location.

There has been one case study that found covid-19 had an attack rate of 83% and found only a minority (approx. 15%) of covid-19 cases were asymptomatic.

The NIH's published figure for R0 was based on a study of the patients on the Diamond Princess. This was a controlled environment that began with 10 symptomatic patients on the first day the ship was quarantined in Japan. Passengers self-isolated and were moved to onshore medical facilities as they were diagnosed. In other words, the Diamond Princess provided an example of successful containment within a controlled environment. 

The resultant R0 was 2.28 (seasonal influenza ranges from 1.14-1.5), which is 50%-100% more contagious than the flu. However, other estimates range from 3.5-5, which would translate to a pathogen that is approx. 166% to 357% more contagious. But let's go with the most conservative figure, the NIH's published estimate of 2.28. 

The last two years have resulted in an average of 40 million illnesses in this country. Should efforts at containment fail (we're in the 11th hour), that means that - conservatively - we could see between 60-80 million symptomatic covid-19 patients in this country. 60-80 million. And as mentioned, this figure is conservative. Germany is planning for as many as 70 million symptomatic cases. Should the higher R0 bare fruit - more likely in the case of failed containment - we could see as many as 200 million symptomatic infections in this country.

Now, all the historical data to date seems to indicate approx. 15% of the symptomatic infections require hospitalization. That means it is possible we could have a need to hospitalize as many as 6 million (on the low end) to 30 million Americans requiring medical attention. 

We have 924,000 hospital beds in the country.

Now let's address the CFR, which as mentioned, is regionally specific and varies from ROK's .8% on the low end to Italy's 6.6% on the high end. And as mentioned above, this is a function of effective containment as much as it is demographics.

We have failed in containment so far. This is largely due to the inexcusably low number of people we're testing:

Testing-Per-Capita.jpg

Regarding the demographic parsing of measured CRR's, the data has shown a strong positive correlation with comorbidity issues, such as cardiovascular disease, which has shown to have a CFR of approx. 13.2%. The CFR for covid-19 patients with diabetes is 9.2%, for and for patients with cancer, 7.6%.

Approximately half of all Americans are believed to have some form of cardiovascular disease. 

 

 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, bigd said:

It’s honestly so crazy. Only 3300 people have died worldwide. Most of those in China which is a country with 1.2 billion.

The flu, heart disease, traffic fatalities, domestic violence, etc kill way more. Why are we going crazy over this?

what am I missing?

I don't think it is the number of how many have died, but the potential of catastrophe if left unchecked. The reason for the concern/panic is that there is not an actual vaccine developed yet to combat it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DoubleBlueGold said:

I don't think it is the number of how many have died, but the potential of catastrophe if left unchecked. The reason for the concern/panic is that there is not an actual vaccine developed yet to combat it.

I think a lot of the fear is it is the fear of the unknown which is why everbody is buying toilet paper...

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, FresnoFacts said:

Who knows, in particularly bad future flu seasons we could see governments and organizations take the same actions as we are seeing this week.

Exactly. That should alarm everyone.

Image result for h.l. mencken quotes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I think a lot of the fear is it is the fear of the unknown which is why everbody is buying toilet paper...

Funny thing is when my wife and I were at CVS the other day, the only TP they were sold out of was Charmin Ultra Soft - my brand of preference. However, there was row after row of inferior products on the shelf.

It was as if I wasn't the only one who said, "Oh, hell no. I rather use my hand than that 80-grit square of ass chaffing."

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Funny thing is when my wife and I were at CVS the other day, the only TP they were sold out of was Charmin Ultra Soft - my brand of preference. However, there was row after row of inferior products on the shelf.

It was as if I wasn't the only one who said, "Oh, hell no. I rather use my hand than that 80-grit square of ass chaffing."

I got TP on Amazon this week.  Bought this.  I will wipe like a king through this apocalypse. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mugtang said:

I got TP on Amazon this week.  Bought this.  I will wipe like a king through this apocalypse. 

Smart. Now sold out. We still have half the 30-pack from Costco we picked up just before the virocaplyspe. 

We stopped in a local grocery store yesterday and there was still plenty of Ultra on the shelves. I didn't bother picking any up because I'm thinking that in a crazy scheme to make a profit, Charmin s going to make more. The coronavirus will have to pry my frugality out of my cold, dead hands.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Bob said:

Just read an article where NYT questioned the WHO 3.4% mortality rate and said it is more like 1%. So if the liberal NYT claims 1% mortality then it's more like .1% in all reality when you consider undiagnosed cases. 

No. That's ignorant, Bob. And demonstrably incorrect. Please take the time to find the publicly available source data. You don't need a NYT subscription; all you need is a calculator.

If not for yourself, do it for anyone in your life who's over the age of 60, diabetic, or has heart disease, cancer, hypertension, or chronic respiratory conditions. All are subject to significantly higher mortality rates than the genpop.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

This is patently incorrect.

Screen-Shot-2020-03-12-at-7-22-40-PM.png

At present, there is plenty of valid data to trust the veracity of the numbers officially published by the CDC, NIH, and WHO, as well as their respective international counterparts.

Baselines for the two key metrics to consider - the crude fatality rate (CFR) and how contagious the pathogen is (referred to as the reproductive number, or R0) - have been established in multiple localities. And both vary from country to country. This is a result of identified correlates, such as age demographics, co-morbid conditions, and the degree to which various countries' agencies are either in front of, or behind, in their respective efforts of containment.

On one hand, the ROK has been very effective in testing, isolating, and proactively contact tracing. Both the R0 and the CFR are low compared to other countries. Italy on the other hand, has been experiencing both a higher rate of transmission and a higher fatality rate. Both metrics are dynamic and not only expected to differ from location to location but over time at the same location.

There has been one case study that found covid-19 had an attack rate of 83% and found only a minority (approx. 15%) of covid-19 cases were asymptomatic.

The NIH's published figure for R0 was based on a study of the patients on the Diamond Princess. This was a controlled environment that began with 10 symptomatic patients on the first day the ship was quarantined in Japan. Passengers self-isolated and were moved to onshore medical facilities as they were diagnosed. In other words, the Diamond Princess provided an example of successful containment within a controlled environment. 

The resultant R0 was 2.28 (seasonal influenza ranges from 1.14-1.5), which is 50%-100% more contagious than the flu. However, other estimates range from 3.5-5, which would translate to a pathogen that is approx. 166% to 357% more contagious. But let's go with the most conservative figure, the NIH's published estimate of 2.28. 

The last two years have resulted in an average of 40 million illnesses in this country. Should efforts at containment fail (we're in the 11th hour), that means that - conservatively - we could see between 60-80 million symptomatic covid-19 patients in this country. 60-80 million. And as mentioned, this figure is conservative. Germany is planning for as many as 70 million symptomatic cases. Should the higher R0 bare fruit - more likely in the case of failed containment - we could see as many as 200 million symptomatic infections in this country.

Now, all the historical data to date seems to indicate approx. 15% of the symptomatic infections require hospitalization. That means it is possible we could have a need to hospitalize as many as 6 million (on the low end) to 30 million Americans requiring medical attention. 

We have 924,000 hospital beds in the country.

Now let's address the CFR, which as mentioned, is regionally specific and varies from ROK's .8% on the low end to Italy's 6.6% on the high end. And as mentioned above, this is a function of effective containment as much as it is demographics.

We have failed in containment so far. This is largely due to the inexcusably low number of people we're testing:

Testing-Per-Capita.jpg

Regarding the demographic parsing of measured CRR's, the data has shown a strong positive correlation with comorbidity issues, such as cardiovascular disease, which has shown to have a CFR of approx. 13.2%. The CFR for covid-19 patients with diabetes is 9.2%, for and for patients with cancer, 7.6%.

Approximately half of all Americans are believed to have some form of cardiovascular disease. 

 

 

ancient aliens GIF

Image result for h.l. mencken quotes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

“The system is not really geared to what we need right now. That is a failing. It is a failing, let’s admit it.”

- Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert at the National Institutes of Health (Link)

 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Germany is now the singular outlier with a measured CFR of .14% - about 40% worse than the seasonal flu.

What are they doing differently? From the LA Times:

Quote

 

"Many health professionals point to a variety of reasons for the results so far, including that Germany, a leader in the 27-nation European Union, has some built-in advantages that could help keep the mortality rate noticeably lower than many countries.

Germany has a widespread network of regional laboratories and was able to do extensive testing for coronavirus when it became known in recent weeks. It has one of the most expensive and extensive public healthcare systems in the world with national healthcare insurance for everyone.

Germany also is considered to have one of the world’s highest concentrations of hospitals — 1,900 for a population of 82 million. And workers, who traditionally see high levels of job security in the country, tend to stay home when they notice symptoms of an illness."

Link

And from Fox:

Quote

"Germany (is) working hard to retrace the steps of people who contracted the virus, and their methods of 'tracking of the infection chains' are helping in the reduction.

The Germans have taken this disease seriously since December. They are committed to transparency, testing and have devoted a huge amount of resources to track sources of what appears to be community spread so that the root cause of each chain can be found and those connected in any way can be warned, isolated, tested, etc."

Link

So, in short - aggressive large-scale testing and contact tracing, combined with a culture that encourages isolating at home when sick, and a more robust healthcare infrastructure, which not only allowed them to get out in front of this early.

Again, all things in which we have failed to do on a systemic basis.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

- Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert at the National Institutes of Health (Link)

 

Of the 3,711 people on board the Diamond Princess, which, despite "quarantine efforts" was actually an incubator for the virus, 705 tested positive. Of those, at least 322 were asymptomatic. 6 have died.

This is an almost perfectly isolated population that was widely exposed to the virus. That's an infection rate of less than 20% and a mortality rate of less than 1%. It's funny how these much smaller numbers just keep showing up.

China, with a population of 1.2 billion people, an astronomical smoking and respiratory disease rate, poor sanitary conditions, and poor health care, has around 81,000 confirmed cases and just over 3,000 deaths. In three months. That is less than 1/100th of 1% of a pretty vulnerable population infected over three months' time, which, given the conditions in China seems wildly low, if people here are predicting infection rates exceeding 50% in the U.S.

Basically, the numbers don't add up.

Image result for h.l. mencken quotes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Wyovanian said:

Of the 3,711 people on board the Diamond Princess, which, despite "quarantine efforts" was actually an incubator for the virus, 705 tested positive. Of those, at least 322 were asymptomatic. 6 have died.

This is an almost perfectly isolated population that was widely exposed to the virus. That's an infection rate of less than 20% and a mortality rate of less than 1%. It's funny how these much smaller numbers just keep showing up.

China, with a population of 1.2 billion people, an astronomical smoking and respiratory disease rate, poor sanitary conditions, and poor health care, has around 81,000 confirmed cases and just over 3,000 deaths. In three months. That is less than 1/100th of 1% of a pretty vulnerable population infected over three months' time, which, given the conditions in China seems wildly low, if people here are predicting infection rates exceeding 50% in the U.S.

Basically, the numbers don't add up.

Partially correct. The initial 10 patients were diagnosed with symptoms on Feb 4. The ship was quarantined in Japanese waters that very day.

Immediately, the population on board the ship was instructed to self-isolate. Passengers and crew who did not have access to sunlight were allowed 1/2 hour per day on deck, staggered, and instructed to maintain a minimum of 2 meters separation from one another.

Passengers, once diagnosed, were immediately removed from the on-board population and moved to and quarantined in medical facilities on shore.

In short, it was a near-perfect example of how to contain and quarantine a population from a controlled environment.

And if we treat the Diamond Princess as a case study, we are able to measure the two critical metrics that are essential for assessing and measuring the threat posed by covid-19.

It is true that 705 tested positive. That much is accurate. And 7 have died, not 6, a CFR of 1% - 10x more deadly than influenza, in a controlled environment with effective containment and isolation processes that largely mitigated the risk of a larger outbreak. 

And as mentioned, the measured R0 from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess - as published nu the NIH - is 2.28, making this virus 50-100% more contagious than influenza in what was, again, a controlled environment with effective containment and isolation processes that largely mitigated the potential severity of the outbreak. 

However, the number you presented as the of asymptomatic cases is categorically incorrect. There are a total of 325 people who have recovered

From the Centers for Infectious Disease Research and Policy:

Quote

Japan's health ministry today reported that 88 more people from the Diamond Princess tested positive for COVID-19, raising the total to 542. Of the most recently confirmed cases, 65 people are asymptomatic.

Link

I'm not sure where you're getting your information from, but studies have shown the ratio of asymptomatic patients to range from about 13% to about 18%:

Form a report co-published by researchers from Kyoto University, Oxford, and Georgia State:

Quote

"The potential infectiousness of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases together with a substantial fraction of asymptomatic infections among all infections, have been highlighted in clinical studies. We conducted statistical modeling analysis to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of the positive COVID-19 infections onboard the Princess Cruises ship along with the timeline of infections. We estimated the asymptomatic proportion at 17.9% (95% CrI: 15.5%-20.2%), with most of the infections occurring before the start of the 2-week quarantine."

Link

So, to recap:

1. Your example is the perfect example to demonstrate just how dangerous this virus is. 

2. The measured asymptomatic proportion is, at the high end, 18%. Meaning 82% are symptomatic, Meaning 12.3% of the total number of people exposed will likely require hospitalization. 

3. So a symptomatic population of 40 million Americans would mean a total infected population (symptomatic + asymptomatic) of 48 million. And a symptomatic population of 100 million Americans would mean a total infected population of 122 million, both well within the range of expected values.

4. A total infection (symptomatic + asymptomatic) of 100 million Americans over the next two months would likely result in more than 12 million Americans requiring hospitalization in a healthcare system with 924, 000 staffed beds.  

 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Partially correct. The initial 10 patients were diagnosed with symptoms on Feb 4. The ship was quarantined in Japanese waters that very day.

Immediately, the population on board the ship was instructed to self-isolate. Passengers and crew who did not have access to sunlight were allowed 1/2 hour per day on deck, staggered, and instructed to maintain a minimum of 2 meters separation from one another.

Passengers, once diagnosed, were immediately removed from the on-board population and moved to and quarantined in medical facilities on shore.

In short, it was a near-perfect example of how to contain and quarantine a population from a controlled environment.

And if we treat the Diamond Princess as a case study, we are able to measure the two critical metrics that are essential for assessing and measuring the threat posed by covid-19.

It is true that 705 tested positive. That much is accurate. And 7 have died, not 6, a CFR of 1% - 10x more deadly than influenza, in a controlled environment with effective containment and isolation processes that largely mitigated the risk of a larger outbreak. 

And as mentioned, the measured R0 from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess - as published nu the NIH - is 2.28, making this virus 50-100% more contagious than influenza in what was, again, a controlled environment with effective containment and isolation processes that largely mitigated the potential severity of the outbreak. 

However, the number you presented as the of asymptomatic cases is categorically incorrect. There are a total of 325 people who have recovered

From the Centers for Infectious Disease Research and Policy:

Link

I'm not sure where you're getting your information from, but studies have shown the ratio of asymptomatic patients to range from about 13% to about 18%:

Form a report co-published by researchers from Kyoto University, Oxford, and Georgia State:

Link

So, to recap:

1. Your example is the perfect example to demonstrate just how dangerous this virus is. 

2. The measured asymptomatic proportion is, at the high end, 18%. Meaning 82% are symptomatic, Meaning 12.3% of the total number of people exposed will likely require hospitalization. 

3. So a symptomatic population of 40 million Americans would mean a total infected population (symptomatic + asymptomatic) of 48 million. And a symptomatic population of 100 million Americans would mean a total infected population of 122 million, both well within the range of expected values.

4. A total infection (symptomatic + asymptomatic) of 100 million Americans over the next two months would likely result in more than 12 million Americans requiring hospitalization in a healthcare system with 924, 000 staffed beds.  

 

The "containment measures" on the Diamond Princess were considered a failure across the board, and, per one doctor from Johns Hopkins, "...set up the passengers to be picked off...".

According to the article, 322 people who tested positive were asymptomatic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-went-wrong-2020-2

Based on current infection rates, your projected 30% infection rate is pretty out there. It didn't even reach 20% in near perfect spread conditions. And, in China, after three months, the national infection rate is less than .01%, after three months marked by widespread failure at containment.

In other words, even if the infection rate in the U.S. were to somehow run double of what it did in China (which doesn't happen), we'd be looking at less than 640,000 people infected. Let's go with 25% requiring hospitalization- less than 160,000 people. Now let's go with your 3.4% fatality rate- less than 21,760 people dead. And, like I said, that is DOUBLE the infection rate in China, which is improbable. More probable is a LOWER infection rate than China, a lower severity rate than China, and a higher survivability rate than China. Suddenly, we're talking about fewer deaths than annual influenza being a more probable outcome.

Image result for h.l. mencken quotes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Part of the issue is that there is as much wrong or bad information as their is good information out there. The press reports part of the story not the entire story, they do leave out key points. Then you have doctors who won't even agree with each other. But the #1 issue is hysteria which is being caused by people all around. There have been some doctors in stories and TV saying canceling events and all that will not stop the virus from growing unless other measures are taken. 

Vast majority of people who have caught Corona Virus and died had other underlining health issues. Corona Virus has been around for several years hell, the clorex wipes that we bought last year at Costco, the first thing it lists as killing 99% of is Coronavirus. This might be a different strain but this disease is not anything new. People in this country started to panic when a few clusters came up and unforuately people passed because many of them had other health conditions. The truth is many people in this country would rather panic first then take a step back and think for a minute. This virus has been around and will be around for a long time just like many viruses are. They are working and testing a vaccine right now for the disease. There was this doctor I think on CNN, who was saying the press isn't helping matters but people really need to understand this disease. Its not instant death like some are saying but it is also nothing to wave off. There are also people that have been tested for this virus because of their prolonged exposure to someone who has it, and they never show any symptoms at all either. 

The suspensions of sports, events, and such is leading to more hysteria among the population instead of trying to educate the population about the virus. As more people are tested and more tests are performed the number of those infected is going to go up, but that isn't something to have hysteria either. In Italy and Germany there were talking about the peak might be in April for some reason, 

There is a lot of information out there from what they already know and stuff they are started to find out now as well. One doctor has said when the quarentine is let up in China there will be another outbreak in China. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...