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slappy

Will Utah State be used as a warm up for the round of 32

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As I get older I see how silly some of these posts are... once th NCAA post season starts, whether it's football, baseball or basketball... I'm all about the conference.

The MW has two teams guaranteed in the Big Dance... let's just cheer them on!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, slappy said:

Ok Let me clarify.  They will be 8-12 seed so they should be facing a good team that is pretty evenly matched.  I know in the past many posters have said usu typically gets the "bigsky" type seed of 13-16.  

You should try using the internet to get information. It’s a useful tool.

 

Teams have been seeded into the NCAA tournament since 1979. Since then the Aggies have been to the tournament 14 times and have gone 1-13. Here is a list of their seedings together with the historical success rate of teams with those seedings:

 

#15 (2003) - 5.7%

#14 (2005) - 15.0%

#13 (1998) - 20.7%

#12 (2000, 2001, 2006, 2010, 2011) - 35.7%

#11 (2009) - 37.1%

#10 (1979, 1983, 1988) - 39.3%

#8 (2019) - 48.6%

 

The takeaway? USU has not been successful in the NCAA tournament but it has not under-performed terribly from the norm according to the seedings the Aggies have received. As a #12 seed USU would be expected to win approximately one game of every three played at that seed. It has won one game out of the five it has played at that seed (20%). If USU were to be a #11 seed this year and actually win, it would only be 14% behind the winning percentage it would be expected to achieve at that seed.

 

Even if USU were to lose in the first round this year, it will have contributed $3,374,400 to the conference from 2019-2026 as a consequence of the basketball credits earned in the 2019 and 2020 NCAA tournaments. You are welcome!

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16 minutes ago, utaggies said:

 

Teams have been seeded into the NCAA tournament since 1979. Since then the Aggies have been to the tournament 14 times and have gone 1-13.

 

 

And when you include the NIT appearances it is even worse.  Thank you for the stats though.  Looks like they are performing like a 1 bid league champion.  

I am not sure but I would bet the big sky champ has done just as well over the same time frame.  I dont like the fact our tournament champ has the same shot as Eastern Washington to win a game.  Best of luck.  Hoping you guys can escape that horrible past and find a way to win

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All about the matchup and whether Merrill is on for USU. We saw last year how a team with high end athleticism can take apart the Ags in the NCAAT. If that happens again this year I would expect similar results, barring Merrill ripping off a 30+ point game.

If they get a team with average athletes they will probably have a better chance...but if Merrill isn't on his A game it won't matter who they play. USU is a fairly average team if Merrill isn't playing at a high level IMO.

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8 hours ago, slappy said:

I think in their last 25 post season tournaments they are 1 and 24.  Something like that.  It is really bad.  They have basically been a warm up for the second round for a very long time.  

Something feels big skyish about the MW champ right now.  Honest opinion on my part.  

 

I would wager the big sky champ loses by less.  

Can’t say that sloppy is wrong. You can blame Stew for a lot of that... his record in the postseason at USU was 1-13. Downright terrible.

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14 minutes ago, B_Lootz said:

Can’t say that sloppy is wrong. You can blame Stew for a lot of that... his record in the postseason at USU was 1-13. Downright terrible.

Actually Stew’s NCAA record at USU was 1-7. The 1-13 record dates from 1979 when seeding teams began. Stew was coach at USU from 1998 through 2015.

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1 hour ago, slappy said:

And when you include the NIT appearances it is even worse.  Thank you for the stats though.  Looks like they are performing like a 1 bid league champion.  

I am not sure but I would bet the big sky champ has done just as well over the same time frame.  I dont like the fact our tournament champ has the same shot as Eastern Washington to win a game.  Best of luck.  Hoping you guys can escape that horrible past and find a way to win

Until Utah State joined the MWC the Aggies were most certainly in a 1-bid conference. So it’s entirely appropriate to compare its tournament results to those of teams in the Big Sky Conference. Presumably the MWC is a multiple bid conference — or should be. While in a two-bid conference USU’s tournament record is 0-1. Let’s see how they do this year as a #10 or #11 seed. The historical percentages are that they should have about a 35% chance to win. I hope they do but the odds are against them.

 

The point of your posts, however, escapes me. Is it since USU hasn’t historically won its first round game that it would be better for the conference that USU not participate in the tournament this year? If so, you are wrong. The conference should aim to get as many teams into the tourney as possible because it means more $ and more visibility regardless of the outcomes. Fans of MWC teams that are not selected for the tournament should put on their big-boy pants and urge/help their teams to do better rather than ragging on USU for not holding up its end of the bargain.

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12 minutes ago, utaggies said:

Until Utah State joined the MWC the Aggies were most certainly in a 1-bid conference. So it’s entirely appropriate to compare its tournament results to those of teams in the Big Sky Conference. Presumably the MWC is a multiple bid conference — or should be. While in a two-bid conference USU’s tournament record is 0-1. Let’s see how they do this year as a #10 or #11 seed. The historical percentages are that they should have about a 35% chance to win. I hope they do but the odds are against them.

 

The point of your posts, however, escapes me. Is it since USU hasn’t historically won its first round game that it would be better for the conference that USU not participate in the tournament this year? If so, you are wrong. The conference should aim to get as many teams into the tourney as possible because it means more $ and more visibility regardless of the outcomes. Fans of MWC teams that are not selected for the tournament should put on their big-boy pants and urge/help their teams to do better rather than ragging on USU for not holding up its end of the bargain.

To be fair, the WAC was a 2-bid league fairly often while USU was there.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, cosinama said:

Poor Bob. You’ve taken so many Ls. 

Like you did in the Fry's parking lot last night? Pussy. #shredded

There are only two things I can't stand in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch. 

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In the tradition of the "this year is different" optimism that is usually crushed in the first 10 minutes of the NCAA tourney I feel that the Aggies are not the traditional 10-12 seed team this year and can play with anyone if the role players can hit open shots and they can stay out of foul trouble.

This team's record is a combination of one bad stretch which included the blowout loss at AFA.  Other than that every loss has come down to the end, even in the bad stretch except for the home loss to the Aztecs during that stretch where they didn't really challenge.

Had they been as healthy as they are now they are probably a 5-6 seed with 4-5 losses.  They have played a tougher schedule preseason which I hope helps.  And if everyone comes to play and keeps things close its hard not to like our chances with Sam closing.

Like I said "This year is different..lol.   Probably be eating my words in two weeks but I am a fan.  

 

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24 minutes ago, bigd said:

To be fair, the WAC was a 2-bid league fairly often while USU was there.

 

 

During the 8 years USU was in the WAC (2006-2013) the conference had only 2 years when multiple teams (2 each year) were invited to the NCAA tournament. That would be less than often.

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1 minute ago, utaggies said:

During the 8 years USU was in the WAC (2006-2013) the conference had only 2 years when multiple teams (2 each year) were invited to the NCAA tournament. That would be less than often.

And those teams were USU and Nevada I think? Right? But they were about where the MW is now.  9th to 11th best league.

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1 hour ago, utaggies said:

Actually Stew’s NCAA record at USU was 1-7. The 1-13 record dates from 1979 when seeding teams began. Stew was coach at USU from 1998 through 2015.

He was 1-9. 1-13 when you include NIT. As much praise as he garners, he was terrible on the big stages. Which makes complete sense that he made an effort throughout his tenure to avoid playing good teams in the non-con

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12 hours ago, slappy said:

Historically Utah State warms teams up for the round of 32.  Is this year different?

 

Personally I think they warm em up.  

Does WYO have a b-ball program yet?????????????    Call us when they do okay.   Sam Merrill runs the MWC and owns he Tourney 

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Can't argue that one.  We did have a couple of fun games aside from Ohio State.   As a 15 seed we had Kansas on the ropes and missed on the last possession.  Jared Quayle had Marquette beat and then fouled out.  But other than that there wasn't much to cheer about. To be fair we always seemed to draw bad matchups but that's no excuse.  I'm not completely buying the scheduling.  The Aggies beat some really good Nevada and Utah teams those years. But yes the scheduling didn't help.  Team seemed shell shocked by the length and athleticism of teams to start and when they calmed down they had built difficult holes to try to come back from.

 

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WYO has 1 Tourney win in 21 years...……..I get where your little brother issues come from.   Hang in there man, your time will happen.   We will see you in the dance in 2030 bro.   Good luck to you guys, I always root for WYO.  

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10 minutes ago, hickaggie said:

And those teams were USU and Nevada I think? Right? But they were about where the MW is now.  9th to 11th best league.

In 2006 and 2007 Nevada and USU both represented the WAC at the NCAA tournament. But in many regards the old WAC is the present-day MWC. The MWC in the past was not considered a mid-major conference. It is now. Mid-major screams 1-bid conference. The power conferences, with their 6 to 11 bids at-large bids, is largely relegating the second-best teams in the non-power conference to the NIT.

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13 minutes ago, B_Lootz said:

He was 1-9. 1-13 when you include NIT. As much praise as he garners, he was terrible on the big stages. Which makes complete sense that he made an effort throughout his tenure to avoid playing good teams in the non-con

I believe the subject was USU’s NCAA tournament record. If we count Stew’s 4 NIT losses I suppose we should also count his 4 CBI wins.

 

Stew didn’t oppose playing good teams. He opposed only playing those teams on their home courts. For some reason power conference teams were not keen on playing in the Spectrum. Stew started relenting a bit on that posture near the end of his career and did play some one-off games — but his best teams were already in his past. Still there were some pretty good teams the Aggies played annually including Nevada, BYU, Utah, Weber St., Pacific, Cal-Irvine and LBS. But with these teams USU always got return games. The fact that the Big West and WAC, on whole, were generally 1-bid conferences contributed to Stew and USU, in every case, playing a higher seeded team in the NCAA tourney where a win would have been an upset. Sadly, they only pulled one off against a #5 seed Ohio State team. They came awfully close in losses to Kansas and Marquette but couldn’t pull it off as some underdogs have.

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