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Swoll Cracker

Sam Merrill is officially an MWC Basketball god

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6 hours ago, Hoser said:

Is he a first round draft choice?  I think the Jazz will take him but in the 2nd round.  I agree the guy can shoot from anywhere, he is a once a decade type player.

I haven’t seen his name on any NBA mock draft lists. His offensive game is NBA quality. He is a good defensive player in college, but would have trouble guarding most NBA guards. There have been a number of guys ( Redick, Korver, Thompson)  that aren’t great athletes that have stuck in the NBA based strictly on their shooting prowess and Merrill can shoot with the best of them. It will be interesting to see if and how high he is drafted. 

If I had to pick between Merrill, Harris, and Flynn as an NBA executive, I would go with Harris based on size and quicks. I think Merrill is the best shooter and most basketball savvy of the three. 

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I see Merrill having a long career with a team like Real Madrid.  In fact, Jaycee Carroll is retiring this year and they'll need another foreign guard and he could step right into Carroll's sharp shooter role there but as a better defender.

Its good money with tax contract advantages, about 1/3 the games of the NBA schedule, and limited minutes the way they run their rotations.

Maybe I'm wrong and Sam will surprise in the NBA. Certainly capable but he and Queta look like really good Euro players to me.

As for the debate here, there was no sweeter shooter than Carroll.  He could create off the dribble as he's shown since but Stew didn't let him and he played in Stew's slow down offense.  I saw an a statistical analysis where he came out #1 or #2 as the best statistical 3 point shooter in NCAA history.  He was one missed 3 off a 50 FGP, 50 3 pt, and 90 percentage FT his senior year.  He's widely considered 1 of the top 2-3 shooters in Europe over the past decade.

All that said there is no way Merrill isn't the better player when it counts.  I've never seen anything like Merrill the last 7 minutes of these tourney games.  Absolutely ruthless and cold.  

Don't get me wrong. I'm not comparing him to Jordan in any sense other that in my experience watching basketball he is the only one I can think of that can instill that kind of confidence in a fan with the ball in his hands when the game is on the line and the kind of sinking feeling and dread opposing teams and fans must have.

The only comparable guy from a Utah State perspective in my lifetime was Jared Quayle who dominated Marquette down the stretch in the Tourney before fouling out and watching his team choke and who had Nevada's number.   But Sam is on another level.

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1 hour ago, #1Stunner said:

JayCee Carroll is a good player, but played in a weaker league (Big West) than Sam Merrill

The Current MWC is the 10th Best League.  Big West, by comparison is the 20th best league.   That shows Sam did more against tougher competition. 

https://bracketologists.com/conferences/

Only quibble I have with that is that Jaycee played in the WAC for his last 3 years.  Wasn't great but it was around the 10th best league and included some very good nationally ranked Nevada teams as well as Boise and Fresno.  They also played both Utah and the Zoobs all those years. I think the WAC was about 9th-10th.  Jaycee would have lit it up anywhere as he has shown the last decade in Europe.   Only thing stopping him from the NBA was that Stew never let him play point.He was only 6'2, and "he couldn't guard a chair" (Stew's words)
 

 

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Merrill would make a solid pro in the NBA...if the NBA still had the same prerequisites as 10-15 years ago.  Under the new league...guys arent picked based on their basketball ability and production, but moreso on their potential, popularity and physical measurements.  Analytics (and social media) has ruined this part of the game.  

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10 minutes ago, ImHere4This said:

Merrill would make a solid pro in the NBA...if the NBA still had the same prerequisites as 10-15 years ago.  Under the new league...guys arent picked based on their basketball ability and production, but moreso on their potential, popularity and physical measurements.  Analytics (and social media) has ruined this part of the game.  

I think this is spot on. Sam will get overlooked iin the draft and there just won't be any spots in final cut downs for a boring free agent although he will impress in camp and preseason.  He'll get a contract with a top 5 European team and have a long and lucrative career in the EuroLeague, make really good money, and be star over there. 

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3 hours ago, Bob said:

Merril belonged at BYU. It's a travesty he didn't get to play for them

He never even considered BYU, the DUDE was way to smart to end up there.   Here's an article about how he came out of the Womb and Aggie, always will be an AGGIE LEGEND NOW!

 

Stanford and Princeton were a few of the Teams who recruited him.   He never answered any of BYU's calls, very smart kid.  

 

https://usustatesman.com/fulfillment-dream-sam-merrills-journey-utah-state/

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18 minutes ago, ImHere4This said:

Merrill would make a solid pro in the NBA...if the NBA still had the same prerequisites as 10-15 years ago.  Under the new league...guys arent picked based on their basketball ability and production, but moreso on their potential, popularity and physical measurements.  Analytics (and social media) has ruined this part of the game.  

Bullshit.  Sounds like someone who doesn't watch the NBA.

4 minutes ago, hickaggie said:

I think this is spot on. Sam will get overlooked iin the draft and there just won't be any spots in final cut downs for a boring free agent although he will impress in camp and preseason.  He'll get a contract with a top 5 European team and have a long and lucrative career in the EuroLeague, make really good money, and be star over there. 

If Merrill doesn't make it in the NBA, it's because he isn't good enough.

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Guest #1Stunner
29 minutes ago, ImHere4This said:

Merrill would make a solid pro in the NBA...if the NBA still had the same prerequisites as 10-15 years ago.  Under the new league...guys arent picked based on their basketball ability and production, but moreso on their potential, popularity and physical measurements.  Analytics (and social media) has ruined this part of the game.  

 

15 minutes ago, hickaggie said:

I think this is spot on. Sam will get overlooked iin the draft and there just won't be any spots in final cut downs for a boring free agent although he will impress in camp and preseason.  He'll get a contract with a top 5 European team and have a long and lucrative career in the EuroLeague, make really good money, and be star over there. 

Agree 100%. 

If you are a white guy, you need to be 6'8" or taller, or come out of Duke to have any sort of a chance.  You don't see any Jeff Hornaceks or John Stocktons populating NBA rosters anymore.  White guys 6'5" and under don't get much of a chance.

That said, there is good money to be made in Europe and China. 

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2 minutes ago, renoskier said:

Bullshit.  Sounds like someone who doesn't watch the NBA.

If Merrill doesn't make it in the NBA, it's because he isn't good enough.

I don't necessarily agree with that.  If he doesn't get drafted it is very hard with guaranteed contracts exc. for a free agent to crack that and even get past the summer camp sometimes.  However, with the Developmental league and 2 way contracts its easier than it used to be.  The question though will be whether his #1 whether his smarts and technique on D are good enough to overcome his lack of athleticism against the types of shooting guards he will face and whether he is able to find the right match.

On the flip side, if he is the 12-14th man journeyman type he's far better off going to Europe anyway and being a star with consistent contract and home.

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12 hours ago, renoskier said:

Bullshit.  Sounds like someone who doesn't watch the NBA.

If Merrill doesn't make it in the NBA, it's because he isn't good enough.

Right.  Because the NBA has the 450 BEST players in the world?

Oh...and all you gotta do is work really hard...then you'll be a billionaire too, huh?

 

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12 hours ago, hickaggie said:

The question though will be whether his #1 whether his smarts and technique on D are good enough to overcome his lack of athleticism against the types of shooting guards he will face and whether he is able to find the right match.

Merrill is an underrated defender IMO.  When it comes to defense, anticipation and communication are equally important as speed/agility.  But you cant measure the latter (or is it the former...I always get those mixed)...so the numbers nerds that make many of the decisions in the NBA throw out guys like Merrill in favor of lesser ball players with better athleticism.  

Same in NFL, Murrow just completed the greatest QB season in NCAA history...and all the talk is about his hand size. 

Moneyball is a great movie...and there are lots of lessons to be learned from analytics...but they are WAY overvalued in sports today.

 

Im not saying he is going to be a good NBA defender...Im merely pointing out that if he's not, its not just cuz he's "slow and white".  There are many athletic and terrible defenders in the NBA.

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13 hours ago, renoskier said:

Bullshit.  Sounds like someone who doesn't watch the NBA.

If Merrill doesn't make it in the NBA, it's because he isn't good enough.

 

1 hour ago, ImHere4This said:

Right.  Because the NBA has the 450 BEST players in the world?

Oh...and all you gotta do is work really hard...then you'll be a billionaire too, huh?

You’re both right here. The NBA isn’t comprised of the best 450 players in the world because generally only 200 of them get solid rotation minutes. The number that matter is even smaller than that. The league has THE BEST players in the world, so the organizations build around acquiring and developing them. Everybody else has to fit around this concept, so the 375th best player might have a better life playing a lot in Spain or Turkey or Japan etc...then riding the pine in a system not suited to them.

Merrill is gonna make a lot of money for himself somewhere. I just hope he shoots the lights out in two weeks.

We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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15 hours ago, ImHere4This said:

Merrill would make a solid pro in the NBA...if the NBA still had the same prerequisites as 10-15 years ago.  Under the new league...guys aren't picked based on their basketball ability and production, but more-so on their potential, popularity and physical measurements.  Analytics (and social media) has ruined this part of the game.  

This is absolutely true. It is why we continue to see this stupid fad of watching unknown young European players being drafted before NCAA guys that have proven themselves on a much larger stage and against far better competition. Even though the majority of them flame out and never make an impact in the league, the hope seems to be that teams will land the one Euro that does make it and they'll look like a genius for finding him.

The other evidence supporting this theory is watching guys that have been pegged since HS to be "NBA level talent" continue to be handed multiple opportunities to fulfill that dream despite not producing at the collegiate level. Because someone labeled them early, because they are 6'-9" and long, because they look the part, because they had a good game one time and so they must have potential, or simply because of ties or relationships to coaches or other NBA decisions makers. Any number of reasons these guys get drafted except what they have actually produced on the court. Just like the Euro guy, once in a great while this type of player does finally fulfill what others have deemed him to be. But most of the time these players are wasted draft picks that continue to flame out at every level of competition. An example of the former is none other than Paul George. Dude was labeled early and often to be an NBA talent yet he never did anything in college to make you think he could play at that level. He was not dominant in college, could not take over a game, and in fact was rather easily removed or shut down by guys that were seen as less athletic than him. Sure as shit it didn't stop some NBA exec from making him a lottery pick. A guy from the WAC a lottery pick? Surely he must have been conference player of the year right?...Nope. Then he was ripped off?...Nope. The guy never even made an all-conference first team! But suddenly he is somehow the 10th player selected in the NBA draft?!! Why? Because he was given the label at a young age, he had the body type at 6'-8" and long, and it became popular to talk about his "potential" leading up to the draft despite not realizing a shred of it at the college level. Good for him and good for Fresno St. that George turned in to the pro he has but it was certainly not earned through his prior skill or production.

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15 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

 

Agree 100%. 

If you are a white guy, you need to be 6'8" or taller, or come out of Duke to have any sort of a chance.  You don't see any Jeff Hornaceks or John Stocktons populating NBA rosters anymore.  White guys 6'5" and under don't get much of a chance.

That said, there is good money to be made in Europe and China. 

This was true for the longest time, but if anything I think its starting to go in the other direction. Now that shooting is a premium, less emphasis seems to be placed on athleticism.

Donte DiVincenzo, Duncan Robinson, Pat Connaughton, and TJ McConnell to name a few have all carved out pretty solid niches in the NBA so far.

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16 minutes ago, bigd said:

This was true for the longest time, but if anything I think its starting to go in the other direction. Now that shooting is a premium, less emphasis seems to be placed on athleticism.

Donte DiVincenzo, Duncan Robinson, Pat Connaughton, and TJ McConnell to name a few have all carved out pretty solid niches in the NBA so far.

All came out of the highest of high majors. DiVincenzo and Connaughton are above average athletes.  Robinson and McConnell both undrafted.  They are the exceptions...and not the rules because they grinded out of the G league and landed on great fits. Lots of luck involved, but I guess you can say they created their own luck.

That said, shooting is a premium, but how many picks are being spent on sub 6'8 shooters? There is less than 5% chance Merrill gets drafted...and he is one of the most accomplished/productive players in MWC history.

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On 3/8/2020 at 1:58 AM, TrueAg said:

Jimmer had range but was actaully a pretty pedestrian shooter. His shooting % was never anything elite but because he had a wierd name, a rapper brother, and a hype machine behind him the likes have never been seen his name is associated with greatness.

Jaycee Carroll did, would, and still could outshoot both Fredette and Merrill. That dude was the best college shooter I have ever seen.

Jimmer was better than a "pedestrian" shooter.  His career 3pfg% of 39.4% is not as good as Sam's 42%, but it's not exactly terrible.  In his senior season, Jimmer was a little bit better than over his career - 39.6%, while Merrill has been a little bit worst that his career average - 41%.  Jimmer also carried a much heavier scoring load than Sam has carried.  His senior year, Jimmer scored 372 points on 3-point field goals (Sam has 267 so far).  But he also scored 444 points from inside the arc.  Sam has 212 so far.  Jimmer forced defenders to guard him well beyond the 3 point line, which made it easier for him to drive and score.

On 3/8/2020 at 5:01 PM, LoboSage said:

Sam can play defense and create his own shot. Jimmer not quite so much.

Jimmer scored from everywhere, mostly creating his own shot off the dribble.  Saying Jimmer couldn't create his own shot is just ignorance.  Defense, on the other hand, he didn't do much of.  Luckily, he had Jackson Emery playing the other guard position.  Jackson's defense allowed Jimmer to focus his attention on the offense.

Jimmer didn't get shut down very often.  His senior year, the fewest points he scored in a loss was 25 (against UCLA); the fewest he scored in a win with a final margin of victory of 20 points or less was 22 (against TCU).  The game after the 22 points against TCU, Jimmer went for 52 against New Mexico, setting the new scoring record for the MW tournament.  Amazingly, he only got one free throw attempt in that game (which he made).

Against BYU, Sam scored:

11 in a loss as a senior

17 in a loss as a junior

14 in a loss as a sophomore

4 in a loss as a freshman

 

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6 minutes ago, Pelado said:

Jimmer was better than a "pedestrian" shooter.  His career 3pfg% of 39.4% is not as good as Sam's 42%, but it's not exactly terrible.  In his senior season, Jimmer was a little bit better than over his career - 39.6%, while Merrill has been a little bit worst that his career average - 41%.  Jimmer also carried a much heavier scoring load than Sam has carried.  His senior year, Jimmer scored 372 points on 3-point field goals (Sam has 267 so far).  But he also scored 444 points from inside the arc.  Sam has 212 so far.  Jimmer forced defenders to guard him well beyond the 3 point line, which made it easier for him to drive and score.

Jimmer scored from everywhere, mostly creating his own shot off the dribble.  Saying Jimmer couldn't create his own shot is just ignorance.  Defense, on the other hand, he didn't do much of.  Luckily, he had Jackson Emery playing the other guard position.  Jackson's defense allowed Jimmer to focus his attention on the offense.

Jimmer didn't get shut down very often.  His senior year, the fewest points he scored in a loss was 25 (against UCLA); the fewest he scored in a win with a final margin of victory of 20 points or less was 22 (against TCU).  The game after the 22 points against TCU, Jimmer went for 52 against New Mexico, setting the new scoring record for the MW tournament.  Amazingly, he only got one free throw attempt in that game (which he made).

Against BYU, Sam scored:

11 in a loss as a senior

17 in a loss as a junior

14 in a loss as a sophomore

4 in a loss as a freshman

 

Here's the problem I anticipate seeing with Utah State in the NCAA.  They lack balance.  Teams will be keying on Merrill to take him away from his game..  That's what happened to Jimmer.    

 

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Just now, aztech said:

Here's the problem I anticipate seeing with Utah State in the NCAA.  They lack balance.  Teams will be keying on Merrill to take him away from his game..  That's what happened to Jimmer.    

 

Yip.  With no Brandon Davies because of the F@(%!#& honor code, Jimmer didn't have enough inside help to draw defenders away and/or dump it off when he drew double/triple teams.  At least we got to see him destroy Gonzaga in the round of 32, though:

 

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