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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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I said this earlier in the thread and got attacked by the strange angry poster (who I don't think is serious)... I have noticed over the last 6 months or so the percentage of people dying from covid in most of Europe (especially the UK) has been something like .1% on a daily basis... during this time in the US it has been about 1.5% on a daily basis (so 15x higher)... I got this from the Johns Hopkins site... 

In any case, I have been super curious as to why that was the case... obviously it could be for any number of reasons but optimistically I am hoping that Omicron has been in Europe for some time but has gone unnoticed (or identified) and if Omicron is less lethal then that could explain the reason for the large discrepancy in daily death percentages...   

Even if that's not the explanation it sure seems important to me for those in charge to figure out why that large discrepancy exists... might help us here.

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50 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Don't get too excited. While that graph indicates that roughly 5x as many patients are exiting the ICU w/in 7 days, you're still only talking about 1% of all ICU COVID patients leaving the ICU w/in 7 days (as opposed to .2%).

That's still a very underwhelming percentage of all ICU COVID patients.

It is reason to get very excited.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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33 minutes ago, Someone Else said:

I said this earlier in the thread and got attacked by the strange angry poster (who I don't think is serious)... I have noticed over the last 6 months or so the percentage of people dying from covid in most of Europe (especially the UK) has been something like .1% on a daily basis... during this time in the US it has been about 1.5% on a daily basis (so 15x higher)... I got this from the Johns Hopkins site... 

In any case, I have been super curious as to why that was the case... obviously it could be for any number of reasons but optimistically I am hoping that Omicron has been in Europe for some time but has gone unnoticed (or identified) and if Omicron is less lethal then that could explain the reason for the large discrepancy in daily death percentages...   

Even if that's not the explanation it sure seems important to me for those in charge to figure out why that large discrepancy exists... might help us here.

It really I think could just come down to numbers and how things are reported, because there is no clear across the board definitions regarding measuring COVID deaths and because of that, that can change numbers and such a lot. I think that could be a main reason is a book keeping situation with regards to those numbers.  

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1 hour ago, wolfpack1 said:

And it doesn't also show which are Delta and which are from Omicron either. But that is why some scientists and doctors are cautiously optimistic with omicron information they are getting but its going to be a bit because of the mix between the two. Yesterday it was 60% of new cases in Britain were Omicron but Delta is still there for now so there is going to be some mixed data there as well.

Yeah, I meant to add something about that. If you were to assume half of those ICU cases were Omicron and half Delta, then that would imply 10X as many Omicron patients in ICU are released (from ICU) within a week, but still only 2% (of Omicron ICU patients) overall.

I still think it's another few weeks before we have a clear picture of the clinical severity of Omicron.

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St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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30 minutes ago, wolfpack1 said:

It really I think could just come down to numbers and how things are reported, because there is no clear across the board definitions regarding measuring COVID deaths and because of that, that can change numbers and such a lot. I think that could be a main reason is a book keeping situation with regards to those numbers.  

I am hardly an expert so what you write is very possible... however, it has been that way for months and months and months... In my mind, it's not timing or bookkeeping that will adjust over time.  It's been very consistent even as cases in Europe have risen over the last several months.

my take is it is either my Omicron theory that I mentioned, or Europe's health system is way better than ours, or that Europeans are just healthier than Americans, or that they count covid deaths differently than we do here ( this would be where the 'covid is a hoax people' would lean I suppose).  I certainly do not know but I just think it should be looked into and explained

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3 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Best case scenario is the common coldifying of COVID. Fingers crossed.

That is absolutely the endpoint. It has been from the beginning. The question is how we get there and the body count. 

I'm optimistic about this variant and have been from the beginning. The data seems to be pointing g that way. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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34 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

That is absolutely the endpoint. It has been from the beginning. The question is how we get there and the body count. 

I'm optimistic about this variant and have been from the beginning. The data seems to be pointing g that way. 

However, we still don't have anything definitive that would indicate a lower clinical severity. 

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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2 hours ago, grandjean87 said:

Karma tempting?  Well, I hope not. 

I’m sitting outside sipping tea, and I can’t get my mind off my cousin who is chemically paralyzed, proned, and on a ventilator right now.  Didn’t sleep much last night.  I’m recalling his referring to the vaccines as causing “something reptilian” last summer.  Fvck Sarah Palin.  But, I hope she never ends up like my cousin  

 

When you're in a position of power/influence like that and the person says,"... over my dead body..." one has to wonder why such a fate so often evades that person, and instead adversely manages to affect countless others.  You know, the poor sycophantic souls who believe the stuff people like Palin spew and blindly follow her "example?"  It's just disgusting.  No accountability, but I guess we're all old enough to make our own Big Boy/Big Girl decisions...

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4 hours ago, ripple effect said:

When you're in a position of power/influence like that and the person says,"... over my dead body..." one has to wonder why such a fate so often evades that person, and instead adversely manages to affect countless others.  You know, the poor sycophantic souls who believe the stuff people like Palin spew and blindly follow her "example?"  It's just disgusting.  No accountability, but I guess we're all old enough to make our own Big Boy/Big Girl decisions...

Yeh. It does really strike me at this present time. I mentioned my proned, ventilated cousin’s cartoonish comment on vaccination before. At the same gathering, another cousin made this comment with the Fox News broadcast running in our background, “if you get the 3rd dose your entire immune system will be wiped out.”  His younger son, around age 40 and a chemical engineer, just responded, “that’s not true.”  

The next day he (son) told me that his older brother — a physician— tried to talk his parents into getting vaccinated.  They refused, of course.  Even now, w/his brother in ICU and in mortal danger, I’ve heard that cousin is confident that Ivermectin will save him if he gets Covid.  

At this point, I’m not sure how much effect someone like Sarah Palin has as an individual?  The anti-vax industrial media complex is pretty firmly intact. 

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4 hours ago, Someone Else said:

Looks like this could be similar to what appears to be happening in the UK and much of Europe??

Just don't think you can compare the population of South Africa to Europe and the US.  only 5% of their population is over 60 and almost 80% of them had already had covid.  

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5 hours ago, Someone Else said:

I said this earlier in the thread and got attacked by the strange angry poster (who I don't think is serious)... I have noticed over the last 6 months or so the percentage of people dying from covid in most of Europe (especially the UK) has been something like .1% on a daily basis... during this time in the US it has been about 1.5% on a daily basis (so 15x higher)... I got this from the Johns Hopkins site... 

In any case, I have been super curious as to why that was the case... obviously it could be for any number of reasons but optimistically I am hoping that Omicron has been in Europe for some time but has gone unnoticed (or identified) and if Omicron is less lethal then that could explain the reason for the large discrepancy in daily death percentages...   

Even if that's not the explanation it sure seems important to me for those in charge to figure out why that large discrepancy exists... might help us here.

I don’t think your optimism is warranted. My understanding is that the Euros do orders of magnitude more sequencing than we do. Omicron is a new development there too.  

Thay Haif Said: Quhat Say Thay? Lat Thame Say

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