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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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1 minute ago, HR_Poke said:

Yeah it sucks.  Some parent narked out our daycare to their corporate office because the teachers weren't forcing the 2 year olds to wear masks when they rip them off.  So now they are having constant battles with the kids.  

I hate people, so much. 

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Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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1 hour ago, ridgeview2 said:

Question for the posters who live in Hawaii. My wife and I are traveling to Hawaii the first week of January for our honeymoon. Does anyone know if there will be any travel restrictions due to this new variant going around?

@Billings is usually up to date on all the happenings on the islands.

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14 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

Yeah it sucks.  Some parent narked out our daycare to their corporate office because the teachers weren't forcing the 2 year olds to wear masks when they rip them off.  So now they are having constant battles with the kids.  

And now daycare folks may have to touch these kids masks, which I am sure both their hands and the kids bodies are absolutely sterilized too.  Pretty soon we may start seeing videos of SRO's body slamming first graders for not wearing masks and being kids (so, defiant).  I've already seen videos of middle-schoolers catching Rock Bottoms, so in due time...

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9 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

And now daycare folks may have to touch these kids masks, which I am sure both their hands and the kids bodies are absolutely sterilized too.  Pretty soon we may start seeing videos of SRO's body slamming first graders for not wearing masks and being kids (so, defiant).  I've already seen videos of middle-schoolers catching Rock Bottoms, so in due time...

I certainly hope not.

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3 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Maybe home schooling is the way?  May be the safer option to not catch bullets or bodyslams.  

It is certainly the way we are choosing for the nonce. 

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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3 hours ago, ridgeview2 said:

Question for the posters who live in Hawaii. My wife and I are traveling to Hawaii the first week of January for our honeymoon. Does anyone know if there will be any travel restrictions due to this new variant going around?

Depends on the island.  

For the whole state it is show a vaccine card or a test within last three days or you have to quarantine for 10 days.

Oahu and Maui require a test or vaccine to go to reseraunts, bars, etc.  Kauai and the Big Island do not require this.

Everyone wears masks indoors and there are crowd size limits still in force on Kauai and the Big Island

 

 

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OK this is really a bad thing for some states.

 

NO natural immunity from previous infections with Omicron.  South Africa showing there is no protection from having already had covid from another variant.

 

Those who have already had other variants of coronavirus do not appear to be protected against Omicron but vaccines are still believed to protect against severe disease, according to top scientists from the global health body and South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59503517

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12 minutes ago, HR_Poke said:

No

I am very pro-mask but with kids that age it really is a losing battle.....   seems overboard to me.  Pick the hills to die on carefully.  Not sure that is one worth fighting.

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Okay. So with the caveat I have not run any models or done anything resembling a formal analysis (there is not enough hard data to do so), reading the tea leaves I am confident in the following:

The Omicron variant is already well established on our shores and is currently undergoing community spread in multiple localities

Without running mobility models I am confident that given the number of locations where it has been detected and given established mobility and travel patterns, it was likely already here before the travel limitations were placed on incoming travelers from Africa. The emergence of even one case (in Minn) with no connections to any travel to S. Africa implies there are many more. And the event (an Anime convention with 50,000 attendees) and location (NYC) would make it a reasonable risk assumption that it has been seeded in a lot of places by now.

I suspect that as more and more testing includes sequencing we'll get a better picture of just how widespread it is.

It is significantly more contagious than the Delta variant

While there are no formal studies to confirm this, the exponential growth of new daily cases in S. Africa since the variant was first discovered and what is known to date about the shitton of mutations to the spike protein seems to indicate a much higher degree of transmissibility.

So here are my predictions moving forward:

  1. By end-Jan the Omicron variant will be the dominant variant in the US and account for the majority of cases
  2. It will evade both natural immunity and require an additional booster
  3. Due to the more contagious nature of the variant, even if it presents with slightly less severe symptoms resulting in a lower CFR, the sheer number of infections will result in nearly as many people dying from Omicron in 2022 as did from Delta in 2021.

It will be another 3-4 weeks until there is enough peer reviewed data to know how vulnerable the vaccinated are. The first case, in the Bay Area, was an individual between 18-49 who was vaccinated but had not yet received a booster, as he/she was not six months past their second shot.

In short, we are keeping our guard up and maintaining our same masking protocols until more is understood about the variant and its ability to evade immunity. 

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4 minutes ago, Billings said:

I am very pro-mask but with kids that age it really is a losing battle.....   seems overboard to me.  Pick the hills to die on carefully.  Not sure that is one worth fighting.

Try keeping a mask on a nonagenarian with middle-late stage dementia. :facepalm:

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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12 minutes ago, Billings said:

I am very pro-mask but with kids that age it really is a losing battle.....   seems overboard to me.  Pick the hills to die on carefully.  Not sure that is one worth fighting.

Yeah the 2 to 5 age range seemed a really dumb idea to enforce 

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30 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Okay. So with the caveat I have not run any models or done anything resembling a formal analysis (there is not enough hard data to do so), reading the tea leaves I am confident in the following:

The Omicron variant is already well established on our shores and is currently undergoing community spread in multiple localities

Without running mobility models I am confident that given the number of locations where it has been detected and given established mobility and travel patterns, it was likely already here before the travel limitations were placed on incoming travelers from Africa. The emergence of even one case (in Minn) with no connections to any travel to S. Africa implies there are many more. And the event (an Anime convention with 50,000 attendees) and location (NYC) would make it a reasonable risk assumption that it has been seeded in a lot of places by now.

I suspect that as more and more testing includes sequencing we'll get a better picture of just how widespread it is.

It is significantly more contagious than the Delta variant

While there are no formal studies to confirm this, the exponential growth of new daily cases in S. Africa since the variant was first discovered and what is known to date about the shitton of mutations to the spike protein seems to indicate a much higher degree of transmissibility.

So here are my predictions moving forward:

  1. By end-Jan the Omicron variant will be the dominant variant in the US and account for the majority of cases
  2. It will evade both natural immunity and require an additional booster
  3. Due to the more contagious nature of the variant, even if it presents with slightly less severe symptoms resulting in a lower CFR, the sheer number of infections will result in nearly as many people dying from Omicron in 2022 as did from Delta in 2021.

It will be another 3-4 weeks until there is enough peer reviewed data to know how vulnerable the vaccinated are. The first case, in the Bay Area, was an individual between 18-49 who was vaccinated but had not yet received a booster, as he/she was not six months past their second shot.

In short, we are keeping our guard up and maintaining our same masking protocols until more is understood about the variant and its ability to evade immunity. 

agree.  One case in Oahu with no travel history.   Israel showed it to be a least 1.3 times more infectious than delta.  That was very preliminary data.  Parts of the US with low vaccination rates and heavy with people relying on natural immunity from having covid already are in for a rough late winter to spring.

 

The cali case was vaccinated with mild symptoms, if I remember right.  The Oahu case of unvaccinated but had covid already had moderate symptoms at this point.   Only two cases though and you can't draw anything form that. 

 

Are you thinking a fourth booster?  MY wife is immune compromised and she will be eligible for a fourth shot in February.

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1 hour ago, Billings said:

agree.  One case in Oahu with no travel history.   Israel showed it to be a least 1.3 times more infectious than delta.  That was very preliminary data.  Parts of the US with low vaccination rates and heavy with people relying on natural immunity from having covid already are in for a rough late winter to spring.

 

The cali case was vaccinated with mild symptoms, if I remember right.  The Oahu case of unvaccinated but had covid already had moderate symptoms at this point.   Only two cases though and you can't draw anything form that. 

 

Are you thinking a fourth booster?  MY wife is immune compromised and she will be eligible for a fourth shot in February.

Yeah, I'm guessing Pfizer, Moderna, et al will tweak their recipe with the intent on incorporating it into any new boosters for those yet to receive them and eventually an additional booster of those of us who already have.

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35 minutes ago, thespywhozaggedme said:

1904965594_CommentarybyDr.Coetzee.jpg.fd69de5cda21e77d9d185142008999c2.jpg

I get her frustrations. My only pushback would be it is exactly because of the uncertainty regarding the new variant that other governments are being proactively cautious. Let the data flush out the risks associated with the variant, and then what seem as overly-punitive restrictions can be rolled back.

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