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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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55 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

I was going to say something about how calling yourself an oracle would be too off-brand, considering the self-deprecating nature of the name, "small town cracker," but then I realized - for the first time ever - that it reads "small town rocker." :facepalm:

So not only do I feel dumb as shit now for never having really "checked my work," so to speak, but my initial thought was incorrect - you could totally get away with rebranding yourself as "The Oracle" without the critical dependency on happy or anyone else.

The self aggrandizement is strong in me.

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4 hours ago, NVGiant said:

I bet the vast majority of those who are wearing a mask in the car by themselves are simply people who forgot to take their masks off when they drove off from the store, or wherever they were required to wear one. I've done that a few times myself. 

FB_IMG_1608309242045_20201218_093427.jpg.54bf488b2215d1fb2208cd04fb12de32.jpg

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6 hours ago, NVGiant said:

Agreed. We're seeing it here in Oregon, where we're in the midst of a spike ourselves. In Deschutes County, it's about as bad as it has been since this whole thing started. The governor just shut restaurants down to indoor dining, gyms are closed, etc. 

In one way I get it. We do have a hospital capacity issue, as we have more than 90% occupied of just 18 ICU beds locally, serving an area of more than 200,000 people. And with just 300 ICU beds statewide, Oregon has the fewest per capita of any state. But at the same time, we're getting to the point where nearly every adult who wants a vaccine can get one, and the most at-risk groups are around 80% vaccinated.

At some point, we have to trust the vaccines, and let the chips fall where they may. 

After not having a single case for 3 weeks in the ICU. we are having a resurgence of cases and our ICU is filling up again. We have a fraction of the nurses that we had before as many have quit so our capacity is lower. Our vaccine uptake has slowed down. I suppose it's people's right to get sick and die if they feel their rights are infringed or are afraid of a little chip in their arm. As an aside, my kids antivaxxer baseball coach tested positive and now the whole team has to quarantine and forfeit games in their already abbreviated season. Frustrating.

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1 minute ago, NMpackalum said:

After not having a single case for 3 weeks in the ICU. we are having a resurgence of cases and our ICU is filling up again. We have a fraction of the nurses that we had before as many have quit so our capacity is lower. Our vaccine uptake has slowed down. I suppose it's people's right to get sick and die if they feel their rights are infringed or are afraid of a little chip in their arm. As an aside, my kids antivaxxer baseball coach tested positive and now the whole team has to quarantine and forfeit games in their already abbreviated season. Frustrating.

It is incredibly frustrating. 

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20 hours ago, RSF said:

Who's defensive?  I'm not defensive.  You're the one who's defensive...

“It’s not me.  It’s him right”

Awkwardly looks at the camera

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10 hours ago, smltwnrckr said:

Call me the Oracle of the MWC Board.

 

If an asteroid really ever is on the way and we politicize it, I am going to find you, hunt you down, and kick you in the nuts.

 

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23 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Very long but poses the real question with all the evidence we know 15 months into this. Where are the damn bats with the Rona?!!!

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

 

Nah, the WHO cleared China.

<_<

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17 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Very long but poses the real question with all the evidence we know 15 months into this. Where are the damn bats with the Rona?!!!

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

hmm... this is either uninformed about his claims or is lying to promote his theory. 

 

Beta-coronaviruses, the family of bat viruses to which SARS2 belongs, infect the horseshoe bat Rhinolophus affinis, which ranges across southern China. The bats’ range is 50 kilometers, so it’s unlikely that any made it to Wuhan.

Range of horseshoe bats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_horseshoe_bat#/media/File:Greater_Horseshoe_Bat_area.png

Greater Horseshoe Bat area.png

Wuhan: 

Cities-Wuhan – Urban Planning and Design in China

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45 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Very long but poses the real question with all the evidence we know 15 months into this. Where are the damn bats with the Rona?!!!

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

If one is to consider the full spectrum of possibilities, then one has to account for the possibility - no matter how remote - that the virus was (in part) engineered in a laboratory. However, even if it's origins are in a lab in Wuhan, I think its release is in all likelihood due to an accidental breach of containment.

Of course, I would surmise we too have ongoing active BWL's in operation around the country. As do the Russians, et al. Gubmints gonna gubmint. 

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15 minutes ago, happycamper said:

hmm... this is either uninformed about his claims or is lying to promote his theory. 

 

 

 

The previous paragraph.

Start with geography. The two closest known relatives of the SARS2 virus were collected from bats living in caves in Yunnan, a province of southern China. If the SARS2 virus had first infected people living around the Yunnan caves, that would strongly support the idea that the virus had spilled over to people naturally. But this isn’t what happened. The pandemic broke out 1,500 kilometers away, in Wuhan. 

Yunnan is here.

D98C6CF7-A8C5-469C-B170-E918226974AB.jpeg.6c2651b138213adf04c9ce2627a0243c.jpeg

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Just now, thelawlorfaithful said:

The previous paragraph.

Start with geography. The two closest known relatives of the SARS2 virus were collected from bats living in caves in Yunnan, a province of southern China. If the SARS2 virus had first infected people living around the Yunnan caves, that would strongly support the idea that the virus had spilled over to people naturally. But this isn’t what happened. The pandemic broke out 1,500 kilometers away, in Wuhan. 

Yunnan is here.

D98C6CF7-A8C5-469C-B170-E918226974AB.jpeg.6c2651b138213adf04c9ce2627a0243c.jpeg

Right. but coronaviruses are endemic to horseshoe bats. As in, extremely endemic - more than 8 in 10 horseshoe bats in China showed coronavirus antibodies in a survey.  Similar strains have been found in Cambodia as well, and there are multiple horseshoe bat species, which range from Wuhan and points north, to Yunnan, to Cambodian caves, in Japan, to different European nations. These viruses were simply found by back-testing frozen, already sampled horseshoe bats - there's no systematic survey of existing bats across China to find a definitive genetic history. 

He's either uninformed, or lying by omission. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03217-0

 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16169905/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20217155/

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3 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

If one is to consider the full spectrum of possibilities, then one has to account for the possibility - no matter how remote - that the virus was (in part) engineered in a laboratory. However, even if it's origins are in a lab in Wuhan, I think its release is in all likelihood due to an accidental breach of containment.

Of course, I would surmise we too have ongoing active BWL's in operation around the country. As do the Russians, et al. Gubmints gonna gubmint. 

I don’t think it’s a purposeful release. If it was a lab accident at least there are questions to be asked and problems that can be addressed. Should we be doing use of function research on viruses that could bring about a pandemic? Is it a good idea to allow that type of research in labs that are below the highest level of containment, maybe even two levels below (which according to the author is not that much different than a dentist’s office).

There are things we can fix if it’s a lab accident. A virus that jumps from one species to another and then to humans, or maybe directly to humans, without leaving a single individual in either the original or intermediate species population with the virus to be found; I don’t what can be done about that.

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1 minute ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

I don’t think it’s a purposeful release. If it was a lab accident at least there are questions to be asked and problems that can be addressed. Should we be doing use of function research on viruses that could bring about a pandemic? Is it a good idea to allow that type of research in labs that are below the highest level of containment, maybe even two levels below (which according to the author is not that much different than a dentist’s office).

There are things we can fix if it’s a lab accident. A virus that jumps from one species to another and then to humans, or maybe directly to humans, without leaving a single individual in either the original or intermediate species population with the virus to be found; I don’t what can be done about that.

I think the answer to that is a hard "no" as evidenced by the fact that biowarfare research is pretty much verboten on the world stage. Therefore any such act would by default get coveredTF up by those responsible for perpetrating it.

But I also think such research is going to continue regardless. 

Anybody remember this from last year?

Screen-Shot-2021-05-06-at-12-07-10-PM.pn

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2 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

@happycamperdoing a deep dive on Chinese bats. Sometimes this board rocks. :rock:

I'm not informed enough to even come close to writing an article like the one I'm criticizing. But I have a nose for bullshit and a tendency to fact-check easily accessible claims. The case for accidental release is there, but it's not as strong as this guy's article. 

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