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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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45 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Notice that New York infections and deaths are way down. Is it possible they have achieved herd immunity?

In some neighborhoods they very well might have.

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/a-look-at-the-reinfection-rate/
 

Last night, Mississippi governor Tate Reeves offered a clear and succinct series of tweets, laying out why he’s not putting too much hope in “herd immunity” taking effect in his state. He noted that just to reach the threshold of 40 percent infected, the number of infected in his state would have to increase from the roughly 37,000 known infections to about 1.2 million. Are there asymptomatic people walking around Mississippi, unaware they have the virus? Sure. Are there 100,000? Half a million? A million?

Reeves summarizes, “on our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we’d need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day — every day — for a year.”

With that said, it is reasonable to believe that certain neighborhoods and communities that were particularly hard hit in the early stages of this pandemic might have reached herd immunity, or something close to it. A of couple days ago, the New York Times reported, “At a clinic in Corona, a working-class neighborhood in Queens, more than 68 percent of people tested positive for antibodies to the new coronavirus. At another clinic in Jackson Heights, Queens, that number was 56 percent. But at a clinic in Cobble Hill, a mostly white and wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13 percent of people tested positive for antibodies.” The article cautiously notes that the people who come into the clinic to be tested may not be representative of the neighborhoods as a whole.

New York political leaders are particularly pleased with the declining number of deaths and new cases these days. Yes, this is what happens when the virus has burned through an area so thoroughly — the virus finds fewer and fewer people who don’t have the antibodies.

There are very few places in this country that (a) were not hit hard in the first wave, (b) are not getting hit hard now, and (c) are not relatively remote and sparsely populated.

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

Face shields are far more effective than masks and allow easier breathing. Why aren’t face shields being recommended? 

 

25 minutes ago, Jack Bauer said:

I use both at work.

I have heard of both private businesses and county health departments (one which told my school district) have said no to face shields as an appropriate alternative.  I don't know why that is, but perhaps because spray can still escape from the bottom?  :shrug:

 

I don't have an informed opinion, so I am not suggesting a right or wrong here

 

ETA: edit to clarify private as private businesses

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1 hour ago, retrofade said:

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But I was told that the death increases starting in July were simply due to reporting delays from the 4th of July weekend and not due to the infection spike in June. 

great credit to health care workers/scientists everywhere who greatly reduced the number of hospitalizations/death rate by dealing with this on a daily basis.  Without their work our numbers would be dismal.

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1 minute ago, Del Scorcho said:

great credit to health care workers/scientists everywhere who greatly reduced the number of hospitalizations/death rate by dealing with this on a daily basis.  Without their work our numbers would be dismal.

Absolutely, I have a LOT of family members out on the front lines of this thing. 

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52 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

 

I have heard of both private businesses and county health departments (one which told my school district) have said no to face shields as an appropriate alternative.  I don't know why that is, but perhaps because spray can still escape from the bottom?  :shrug:

 

I don't have an informed opinion, so I am not suggesting a right or wrong here

 

ETA: edit to clarify private as private businesses

Wouldn’t spray deflected downward be preferable than spray directed toward others through pores in cloth face masks? Also spray directed toward someone with a shield would hit an impenetrable shield. 

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8 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Wouldn’t spray deflected downward be preferable than spray directed toward others through pores in cloth face masks? Also spray directed toward someone with a shield would hit an impenetrable shield. 

Dunno.  Hopefully someone with knowledge of the subject can weigh in instead of me formulating a stance based on little of my own education in those fields.

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1 minute ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Dunno.  Hopefully someone with knowledge of the subject can weigh in instead of me formulating a stance based on little of my own education in those fields.

I have read Boise State football players helmets are all going to be retrofitted with face shields

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21 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Wouldn’t spray deflected downward be preferable than spray directed toward others through pores in cloth face masks? Also spray directed toward someone with a shield would hit an impenetrable shield. 

 

10 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Dunno.  Hopefully someone with knowledge of the subject can weigh in instead of me formulating a stance based on little of my own education in those fields.

The CDC is not currently recommending face shields without masks due to lack of evidence of efficacy (link). Masks have proven to be effective in reducing the spread of the virus. Face shields with masks are recommended for people with prolonged exposure to the virus.

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1 hour ago, East Coast Aztec said:

 

I have heard of both private businesses and county health departments (one which told my school district) have said no to face shields as an appropriate alternative.  I don't know why that is, but perhaps because spray can still escape from the bottom?  :shrug:

 

I don't have an informed opinion, so I am not suggesting a right or wrong here

 

ETA: edit to clarify private as private businesses

I think a mask works better, because of what you've stated. I just use the face shield for eye protection, or medical goggles. But, I'm in a testing clinic when I dress like that. I just use goggles with a typical mask in clinic, but an N95 and goggles/face shield in testing/screening clinic.

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6 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

I have read Boise State football players helmets are all going to be retrofitted with face shields

10 -12 years too late. Looking at horse face all game long must have been hell. 

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The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere is seeing a large reduction in flu cases.

The belief is the same measures against coronvirus (masks, travel restrictions, distancing, school closures, lockdowns, etc) are also reducing the number of flu cases.

Possibly good news for the US medical system for winter. If the US can avoid a double whammy of coronavirus and flu cases this winter it would be helpful.

Examples from the article:

Quote

Chile has recorded only 1,134 seasonal respiratory infections so far this year, compared with 20,949 during the same period last year. In the first two weeks of July—the equivalent to early January in the Northern Hemisphere and the height of the local flu season—the country reported no new confirmed influenza cases.

In the last two weeks of June, Australia registered only 85 new laboratory-confirmed influenza cases, compared with 22,047 confirmed cases for the two weeks through June 30 a year earlier, according to Australia’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System.

<snip>

In Australia, influenza cases usually begin rising in March, April and May. Then, in June, “things really start to get going,” said Professor Ian Barr, deputy director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza at the Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, a nonprofit research center in Melbourne.

But instead, the number of influenza cases has tapered off, from around 15% of the five-year average in March to just 4% of the five-year average in June, he said. In Australia, confirmed flu cases plunged 84% to 20,739 from the beginning of January to June 30, compared with 132,424 during the same period the previous year.

Article behind paywall:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-measures-have-all-but-wiped-out-the-flu-in-the-southern-hemisphere-11595440682

Non paywall summary:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/508688-coronavirus-measures-lead-to-lower-influenza-numbers-across-the-southern

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On 7/23/2020 at 9:13 AM, soupslam1 said:

Notice that New York infections and deaths are way down. Is it possible they have achieved herd immunity?

There was an interesting article in the Atlantic last week that discussed a model which predicts that the percentage of infected people to achieve herd immunity is way lower than previously thought. I don't remember the details, but the basic idea is that people susceptible to COVID (for various reasons) got hit early and hard in some places. Those people are still the ones most likely to get sick, but they are immune now. And everybody else is less likely to get sick in the first place. So the bottom line is that you don't need to get the majority of people immune - just the majority of people who are likely to get sick (and sick again).

Here's the article: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

 

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