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bornontheblue

Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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15 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Not surprised...  a few months back testing was only available if one had symptoms and it was during the cold/flu season - which both had overlapping symptoms and your chances of having Covid were quite a bit lower than a cold or flu.  We’re past that season now and if one is showing symptoms then Covid is a higher probability.  There’s also heavier focus on contact tracing, etc so more people getting tested either have symptoms or known exposure - both lending to a higher probability of a positive result.

Or, and stay with me here, maybe the highly contagious pathogen is spreading.

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And if you think that's some crazy shit, then get this - it might even explain the direct correlation between the spikes in prevalence and communities where dipshits think wearing a mask in public indoors spaces infringes on their ferderms.

 

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Just now, TheSanDiegan said:

Or, and stay with me here, maybe the highly contagious pathogen is spreading.

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And if you think that's some crazy shit, then get this - it might even explain the direct correlation between the spikes in prevalence and communities where dipshits think wearing a mask in public indoors spaces infringes on their ferderms.

 

Is the sky blue too?

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

A good friend is a regional senior management for a Fortune 100 company and they went remote before the stay-at-home orders went into place. While productivity has suffered to some degree since shifting to a remote model, they're still intent on adapting and staying the course until this pandemic is behind us.

I work for a Fortune 100 company as well, we finally got a chance to put our contingency plans into place. It's been working out great, they've already decided to close an office in Orange County and let them work from home. Many jobs will be able to be worked from anywhere, the best candidate for a given position may not live near the home office. Company travel will be greatly reduced, most of it is completely unnecessary.

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Was told unofficially not to expect to return to the office until '21.  Given that my group has people in 7 different states with varying levels of openness, not a shock.  And that the numbers indicate that our productivity is going up.  That part seems hard to believe, given that I know a lot of people added, like me, a 2nd gig.  Part time teacher.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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41 minutes ago, happycamper said:

Yeah. We looked to 1918 when we should have looked to the '40s (polio). 

I mentioned days ago that I think going forward we will see localized restrictions (as existed during the polio years) to deal with local flareups.

But at the start decisions had to be made with little information about coronavirus or how to deal with it.

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2 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Because they are directly proportionate to one another, i.e., a certain percentage of people regardless of age are going to die from this disease, so the greater the number of people who contract it, the greater number of people will die.

tl;dir: Because of simple math. Ahhhhh... now I get why you don't get it. :hmmm:

 

47 minutes ago, Bob said:

What? They are not proportionate. As has been explained, the correlation broke down some time ago. A very tiny percentage of young die, while a larger percentage of old die. Not really sure what you're babbling about here. It, uh, matters greatly who contracts the virus

Bob is right, huge breakage in the two, not even close.

 

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great its the frozen in time crowd chiming in again.

Its the same clowns who think Fauci should have known exactly where we were are today on March 1, 2020 and are blaming him for not seeing into the future. Its the same jokers who don't give science any credit for finding new ways to fight the disease and reducing deaths ( the drug - remedisivr alone has reduced COVID-19 deaths by 1/3 for those on ventialtors).  Come on you aren't that stupid to think that the death rate today should be identical to the death rate two months ago? 

Is this not a moving target, that evolves daily as we learn more and more about this virus?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281

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1 hour ago, Bob said:

What? They are not proportionate. As has been explained, the correlation broke down some time ago. A very tiny percentage of young die, while a larger percentage of old die. Not really sure what you're babbling about here. It, uh, matters greatly who contracts the virus

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40 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

 

Bob is right, huge breakage in the two, not even close.

 

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Deaths trail positives by 24-26 days (call it four weeks) on average.

Please tell me you understand this so I don't have to post a "Trailing Indicators for Dummies" graphic like I would for Boob.

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28 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Deaths trail positives by 24-26 days (call it four weeks) on average.

Please tell me you understand this so I don't have to post a "Trailing Indicators for Dummies" graphic like I would for Boob.

We’re beyond that 24-26 day mark in Utah since the surge in cases (re-opened May 1st but changed from orange to yellow on May 15th) and have yet to see deaths follow the cases trend.  Truth is no one truly knows where the curve is going.

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23 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

We’re beyond that 24-26 day mark in Utah since the surge in cases (re-opened May 1st but changed from orange to yellow on May 15th) and have yet to see deaths follow the cases trend.  Truth is no one truly knows where the curve is going.

probably not a great example, since Utah is youngest state by average age (by a large margin) in the nation

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18 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

We’re beyond that 24-26 day mark in Utah since the surge in cases (re-opened May 1st but changed from orange to yellow on May 15th) and have yet to see deaths follow the cases trend.  Truth is no one truly knows where the curve is going.

Yet we're within a week of the ongoing surge in cases in TX, AZ, and FL. And TX and AZ are the two that concern me the most due to the rapidly diminishing ICU capacity. Texas is logging more cases than Utah by an order of magnitude:

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And as far as Utah is concerned, you guys have had a low CFR from the beginning. Maybe there's something to be said for magic underwear after all? :shrug:

However, according to your state health department (link), you guys are still trending WAY up and a majority of those new cases fall within 1-3 weeks, not 4 weeks as you stated:

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