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bornontheblue

Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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6 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Are rising cases a result of increased testing or a result of reopening? Probably a result of both. 

Probably some of A and a lot of B. If most of the rising cases were due to increased testing, the percentage of positive tests would be dropping sharply, which hasn't been happening lately. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

 

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53 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

98% of people who get this disease will live through it. The vast majority only suffer mild temporary symptoms. There is no need to shut down the country again over something like this. Most of us are going top have to get this to establish herd immunity. I am pretty sure I had it back in January. I worked for a company that had people traveling back and forth from China all the time and I got what I thought was the worst Flu i ever had back in January. I am getting an antibody test on Wednesday. 

If most of us get this, 2% will be millions of Americans dead. Plus millions more who may spend weeks in the hospital, suffer permanent lung damage, and have their finances devastated from this. 

And even those who are okay with the idea of hundreds of thousands to millions of elderly lives cut short should consider these two things:

1. Do you know how many families count on their elders for things like childcare? Do you know how many grandparents take care of their grandchildren because their parents aren't around for whatever reason? Do you know how many elderly still support their families' income? The virus does NOT just kill those elderly who are already on their way out anyway - we have plenty of evidence that's not the case. 

2. Thankfully, most Americans aren't okay with sacrificing their elders. So forget the idea that the country will just shrug off the pandemic and somehow go back to normal just because their governors say it's okay to do so. People will stay home as much as they can, and that's going to cause MORE damage to the economy than a few more weeks of shutdown would have cost.

 

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I predict we'll somehow muddle through this with a mix of local shutdowns, prevention measures such as mask requirements, and hopefully some advances in treating patients, but it's not going to be pretty. And the longer we just try to wish the virus away the less pretty it's going to get. Right now we can still point at a few peer countries that have higher per capita death rates than us, but that's not going to last long. France and the UK, for instance, have both basically contained the spread. They have a few hundred new cases a day. That's a rate where you can afford trying to normalize life. We have close to 30,000 new cases a day. 

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

Are rising cases a result of increased testing or a result of reopening? Probably a result of both. 

IMO unless we start to see significant increasing deaths and city hospitals being overrun we should continue the course of letting people normalize. Currently deaths continue to decrease and in general hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed.  
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If there is an actual spike in cases that is not just a result of increased testing we will not see a spike in deaths for another 1-2 weeks. 

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

Are rising cases a result of increased testing or a result of reopening? Probably a result of both. 

IMO unless we start to see significant increasing deaths and city hospitals being overrun we should continue the course of letting people normalize. Currently deaths continue to decrease and in general hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed.  
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Costa Rica just mandated mask wearing while in public.  If economics is the big concern, why not just do that and reopen everything?

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

Are rising cases a result of increased testing or a result of reopening? Probably a result of both. 

IMO unless we start to see significant increasing deaths and city hospitals being overrun we should continue the course of letting people normalize. Currently deaths continue to decrease and in general hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed.  
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Where I'm at (and this could be isolated) a vast, vast majority of the positive cases are from those coming in to the doctors office with symptoms and not from mass testing.

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46 minutes ago, I am Ram said:

If most of us get this, 2% will be millions of Americans dead. Plus millions more who may spend weeks in the hospital, suffer permanent lung damage, and have their finances devastated from this. 

And even those who are okay with the idea of hundreds of thousands to millions of elderly lives cut short should consider these two things:

1. Do you know how many families count on their elders for things like childcare? Do you know how many grandparents take care of their grandchildren because their parents aren't around for whatever reason? Do you know how many elderly still support their families' income? The virus does NOT just kill those elderly who are already on their way out anyway - we have plenty of evidence that's not the case. 

2. Thankfully, most Americans aren't okay with sacrificing their elders. So forget the idea that the country will just shrug off the pandemic and somehow go back to normal just because their governors say it's okay to do so. People will stay home as much as they can, and that's going to cause MORE damage to the economy than a few more weeks of shutdown would have cost.

 

The death rate is much lower than 2%. Its more like .025 percent. kind of blows away your whole argument there

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1 hour ago, I am Ram said:

If most of us get this, 2% will be millions of Americans dead. Plus millions more who may spend weeks in the hospital, suffer permanent lung damage, and have their finances devastated from this. 

And even those who are okay with the idea of hundreds of thousands to millions of elderly lives cut short should consider these two things:

1. Do you know how many families count on their elders for things like childcare? Do you know how many grandparents take care of their grandchildren because their parents aren't around for whatever reason? Do you know how many elderly still support their families' income? The virus does NOT just kill those elderly who are already on their way out anyway - we have plenty of evidence that's not the case. 

 

 

Lots of 85 year olds are providing childcare?

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5 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Japan handled it similarly to Sweden, but they wore masks at a very high rate. They have 10 times the population of Sweden but only 1/5 the number of deaths, despite having the oldest population on earth. 

 

5 hours ago, Bob said:

Or they have some sort of natural immunity to this corona virus. Most likely from being in close proximity to China

What does Occam's razor tell us? I'd bet on the masks.

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Quote

Three months ago, public health officials feared that America would be swamped by Covid-19 like Italy. Today, the U.S. would be lucky to swap its coronavirus crisis for theirs.

Italy announced just 264 new Covid-19 cases on Saturday — the same day that the United States reported nearly 32,000.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/22/united-states-italy-traded-places-coronavirus-333122

 

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5 hours ago, mysfit said:

And all you +++++ers who say well it's just old useless people dying? You +++++ers can go jump in an active volcano. You are the worst kind of people and you're far more useless than those dying as the direct result at this point of that fat useless windbag failure in the Oval office.

Calm down, not one person said that.

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14 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

Calm down, not one person said that.

No one  ( that i can remember) said 'exactly' what she wrote, but there were those who said things along the lines of ' they were going to die anyway..what's a couple months or even a few years early'....remember I'm paraphrasing. ...but that sentiment has been shared on this board. 

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40 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

You should stay there.  It sounds safe!

I probably will because they may not let me back in with a USA passport.   The USA is doing its best to become the world's lepper colony. 

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6 minutes ago, Akkula said:

I probably will because they may not let me back in with a USA passport.   The USA is doing its best to become the world's lepper colony. 

Out of curiosity are you still required to file a federal tax return, and claim a state residence for domicile purposes. I’m a CPA, I’m curious. 

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4 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

Out of curiosity are you still required to file a federal tax return, and claim a state residence for domicile purposes. I’m a CPA, I’m curious. 

Federal tax return yes,  state of domicile.. not once you no longer live in that state... just like moving to another state.   Make sure to file FBAR. Glad I could teach you something. 

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5 minutes ago, Akkula said:

Federal tax return yes,  state of domicile.. not once you no longer live in that state... just like moving to another state.   Make sure to file FBAR. Glad I could teach you something. 

So, you're paying federal taxes. Good. Your opinion counts.

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