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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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7 hours ago, IanforHeisman said:

The attack on science the last few years is so bizarre to me. 97 percent of scientists have dedicated their lives to lying to you about global warming, coronavirus, 5g, etc..

 

Or the 3 percent may have been paid by those who stand to lose profit if action is taken to correct these problems.

There is hardly a consensus about Covid.  Yes, government is in lock step, but that is how government operates.  There are many, many credible voices on Covid that don't agree with the CDC on everything.

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8 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Even over a long enough timeline this is only partially true. A slow bake to herd immunity would result in a lower overall infection rate as the susceptible population would not be large enough to sustain transmission. Furthermore, suppression allows immunologists the head start on making a vaccine.

And there's value in slowing the inevitable. People wouldn't be in much of a partying mood in Missouri or anywhere if there had been a million deaths over the last two months as opposed to 100,000.

Or... are you making the argument that there is no evidence that the mitigation measures resulted in the decline in new postitives over the time they've been in effect (and as reflected in your chart above)? Because I'll happily post several links that will show how mistaken you would be.

The measured R0 of this virus is 2.5 and the measured secondary attack rate is 83%. In the absence of mitigation, the entire population is susceptible to infection and everybody who comes into contact with anybody will become infected eventually. Social distancing, the use of masks, and all the preventative steps suggested by the CDC will bring that number down. 

 

I’m curious what data you have about the seasonality of Covid.  I worry we could be drawing the wrong conclusions as the Virus declines entering into summer months.  People, including me, look at Georgia and say see opening up didn’t create a spike.  But in reality the lack of spike could be summer and next November could be a very nasty resurgence. 

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7 hours ago, IanforHeisman said:

Trump said 2 million would have died without his quarantine plan. So is he lying or what..

Yeah, he's an idiot on this one. His initial instincts were correct

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7 hours ago, IanforHeisman said:

The attack on science the last few years is so bizarre to me. 97 percent of scientists have dedicated their lives to lying to you about global warming, coronavirus, 5g, etc..

 

Or the 3 percent may have been paid by those who stand to lose profit if action is taken to correct these problems.

Moron alert

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21 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Interesting discussion re: the study that suggested covid takes an average of 10 years from its victims.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/reason/HitandRun/~3/2ES42hXGBak/

 

In the first few weeks, nearly all of the folks who died from Covid in Utah had life expectancies under 12 months.  I have no idea how that held up since then.

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On 5/22/2020 at 1:04 PM, mugtang said:

I don’t understand the far rights hate for fauci.  He hasn’t claimed to be the end all.  He advises based on medical knowledge and available data.  But deep state or something. 

He didn't praise HIV as a cleansing plague so they already hated him. 

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9 minutes ago, happycamper said:

He didn't praise HIV as a cleansing plague so they already hated him. 

He can win them all back if he says that science has proven abortion to be murder. 

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Sweden gambled and lost

Quote

No one, however, would have predicted this news item from last week: “Covid-19 deaths in Sweden were the highest in Europe per capita in a rolling seven-day average between 12 and 19 May.” It confirmed that Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell’s “mitigation” strategy of allowing shops, restaurants, gyms, schools and workplaces to remain open was a deadly folly. It does not even seem to have produced herd immunity. Just 7.3% of Stockholm’s inhabitants had developed Covid-19 antibodies by the end of April.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/may/23/sweden-covid-19-policy-model-for-right-also-a-deadly-folly

 

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1 hour ago, sactowndog said:

I’m curious what data you have about the seasonality of Covid.  I worry we could be drawing the wrong conclusions as the Virus declines entering into summer months.  People, including me, look at Georgia and say see opening up didn’t create a spike.  But in reality the lack of spike could be summer and next November could be a very nasty resurgence. 

Nada. As far as expectant spikes following reopening, remember that it can take 14 days for symptoms to show, and another 5 days or so for symptoms to worsen enough to merit a trip to the doctor or clinic, so I wouldn't expect to see a resultant spike begin to manifest until 10-20 days after measures are rolled back. Let's hope tho that there is a seasonal component that aids in suppression.

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2 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

The number of deaths per capita is lower than many European countries and is about a third larger than the US without pad locking kids swing sets in public parks. 

just compare Sweden to its neighbors:

Finland (population 5.5 million) - infected - 6,600 / deaths - 312

Norway (pop - 5.4 million) - infected - 8,300 / deaths - 235

Sweden (10.1 million) - infected - 34,400 / deaths - 4,125

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3 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

just compare Sweden to its neighbors:

Finland (population 5.5 million) - infected - 6,600 / deaths - 312

Norway (pop - 5.4 million) - infected - 8,300 / deaths - 235

Sweden (10.1 million) - infected - 34,400 / deaths - 4,125

Yeah, Sweden definitely did it right :rolleyes:

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You forgot Italy, France, Great Britain, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, etc, etc. However, Per your posts I completely understand you prefer the authoritarian lockdown way of handling the virus. 

3 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

just compare Sweden to its neighbors:

Finland (population 5.5 million) - infected - 6,600 / deaths - 312

Norway (pop - 5.4 million) - infected - 8,300 / deaths - 235

Sweden (10.1 million) - infected - 34,400 / deaths - 4,125

4 minutes ago, renoskier said:

Yeah, Sweden definitely did it right :rolleyes:

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Screen-Shot-2020-05-26-at-4-27-14-PM.png

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"If that rule had gone into effect, then every hospital, every nursing home would essentially have to have a plan where they made sure they had enough respirators and they were prepared for this sort of pandemic," said David Michaels, who was head of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration until January 2017.

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

You forgot Italy, France, Great Britain, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, etc, etc. However, Per your posts I completely understand you prefer the authoritarian lockdown way of handling the virus. 

He didn't forget them so much as he has looked at a map of Scandinavia. Whether you prefer stringent restrictions or not, Sweden's numbers are objectively worse than its immediate neighbors in Denmark, Norway, and Finland. They're also doing worse than Germany, which is closer to Sweden than every country you mentioned. It's OK to accept that and still believe that Sweden is on the right course. 

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Recently heard an interview where they brought up that Sweden has a lot of things working for them that have helped keep their numbers low. One point I hadn’t considered was that multigenerational households are very rare in Sweden. It is much easier to get compliance with social distancing when people mostly live alone or with immediate families; and it makes it more effective too. 

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16 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

You forgot Italy, France, Great Britain, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, etc, etc. However, Per your posts I completely understand you prefer the authoritarian lockdown way of handling the virus. 

comparing Sweden to Italy is like comparing New York to Boise, but don't let that stop you

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Deaths in the US in April were 10% higher this year. This is the only measuring stick that can be used. 

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