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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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1 hour ago, IanforHeisman said:

That’s how I see it too.. We erred on the side of caution, and still had over 100,000 deaths. We’re at the point where people see 100,000 deaths as nothing and this was all fake news.

Nobody says its fake news.  Here's some context though.  Every month, month after month, year after year,  230,000 people die in the US.  That means if everything is humming along normally, a little over 900,000 people would have died since March.  The vast majority would have been elderly and sick.  in fact,  if you were going to collect and present statistics on natural death, the distribution would be VERY similar to the COVID distribution. So how bad is COVID really?

 

 

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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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16 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

How do you know they didn't die of the flu?  It may come as a shock to you but many elderly people who die of corona virus aren't actually tested for the virus, they are diagnosed symptomatically.  A 101yr old woman in your facility, with congestive heart failure and COPD  suddenly has her temperature elevate and her lungs fill with fluid, she has a DNR and passes away in 48 hours, what do you write on the death certificate?  If one COD attribution gets you extra funding- and others don't- and they can all be credibly "blamed", what do you write?

There's nothing particularly outlandish about that claim given what I described above is the most likely death scenario for this disease. 

 

 

 

I didn't say it was crazy or outlandish.

I don't believe that misdiagnosis is pushing the body count significantly.

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1 minute ago, CV147 said:

I didn't say it was crazy or outlandish.

I don't believe that misdiagnosis is pushing the body count significantly.

IMO the margin of error from all sources is probably +/-15% but it's just a guess.  You're right, it doesn't  materially change the magnitude of the problem.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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5 minutes ago, CV147 said:

I didn't say it was crazy or outlandish.

I don't believe that misdiagnosis is pushing the body count significantly.

and on the flip side, there are people dying that have the virus that aren't being counted. Especially in countries like Italy who have a significant population of elderly at home.

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5 hours ago, SDSUfan said:

We know who the vulnerable are. We know how to protect them. We've known these things for awhile now.  This nonsense needs to stop.

The fatality rate amongst the young and productive is near zero.  There is excess hospital capacity to deal with those who  have severe symptoms but for the vast majority of positive cases, there are either no or mild symptoms. 

The disease will run its course.

People will die from it. 

'twas ever thus.

 

What is there still to complain about? Businesses and restaurants are reopening. The preventive measures did what they were designed to do and prevent infections/overwhelming the healthcare system.

Haven't looked at the methodology of the study yet, but looks like the preventive measures the world took prevented 100s of millions of cases:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8

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1 minute ago, Stealthlobo said:

What is there still to complain about? Businesses and restaurants are reopening. The preventive measures did what they were designed to do and prevent infections/overwhelming the healthcare system.

Haven't looked at the methodology of the study yet, but looks like the preventive measures the world took prevented 100s of millions of cases:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8

I'm not complaining. I'm responding to the press reports posted carrying the "dire" news that people are getting sick. Some are trying to argue against further openings. I like openings. Openings is good. More openings is better. The government GETTTING.. THE.. PHUK.. OUT OF THE WAY....is best

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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24 minutes ago, Bob said:

Spot on. People lack perspective. A little excess mortality among old, sick people that were getting ready to die is not something to stop society over. If that offends anyone, too bad, it's the truth. Is it sad? Sure, but shit happens when you get old.  Anyone who thinks that what has happened has the maturity of a preteen

The thing is, the old people agree. My dad, who's 86 next month is of the opinion that he's not changing a damn thing and he accepts his fate come what may. He's not an outlier. 

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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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1 hour ago, SDSUfan said:

The thing is, the old people agree. My dad, who's 86 next month is of the opinion that he's not changing a damn thing and he accepts his fate come what may. He's not an outlier. 

it can be a painful death, he doesnt want to avoid that? He's okay with people that love him watch for weeks as he suffers. He's good with possibly infecting others and making them suffer?  

I watched my wife suffer in pain for weeks once, it was heart breaking as she asked for morphine every few minutes.  The nurses told me they couldn't give her any more pain medicine.  I was a complete mess. Her family and I wished we could trade places with her just for a few minutes, to give her a break. We cried, we prayed, we screamed as she clung to life. I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

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5 hours ago, SDSUfan said:

How do you know they didn't die of the flu?  It may come as a shock to you but many elderly people who die of corona virus aren't actually tested for the virus, they are diagnosed symptomatically.  A 101yr old woman in your facility, with congestive heart failure and COPD  suddenly has her temperature elevate and her lungs fill with fluid, she has a DNR and passes away in 48 hours, what do you write on the death certificate?  If one COD attribution gets you extra funding- and others don't- and they can all be credibly "blamed", what do you write?

There's nothing particularly outlandish about that claim given what I described above is the most likely death scenario for this disease. 

 

 

 

If a 101 year old lady with those ailments haven’t already died from them, it must have been CV-19 that killed her.

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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32 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

it can be a painful death, he doesnt want to avoid that? He's okay with people that love him watch for weeks as he suffers. He's good with possibly infecting others and making them suffer?  

I watched my wife suffer in pain for weeks once, it was heart breaking as she asked for morphine every few minutes.  The nurses told me they couldn't give her any more pain medicine.  I was a complete mess. Her family and I wished we could trade places with her just for a few minutes, to give her a break. We cried, we prayed, we screamed as she clung to life. I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

I'm not going to be changing his mind. He's 86.  He has a DNR that states pain treatment only.  That's what we'll do when the time comes.  I'm sorry to hear about your wife.  That must have been awful.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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2 hours ago, SDSUfan said:

The thing is, the old people agree. My dad, who's 86 next month is of the opinion that he's not changing a damn thing and he accepts his fate come what may. He's not an outlier. 

My mom is 72 and her husband  ( my dad died many years ago) is 79. They just went on a trip from Texas to Maryland to visit my brother and his family. 

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18 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

The Trump campaign says attend a rally at your own risk of catching the virus.

 

You knew the venue was going to indemnify themselves.  Why shouldn't he as well?  Wouldn't be surprised if we get the same when we go to purchase tickets for sporting events.  It just makes sense.

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1 hour ago, FresnoFacts said:

The Trump campaign says attend a rally at your own risk of catching the virus.

 

Asking for a libtard friend...can he/she sue if they get Covid because they were next to a MAGA hat donning, non wearing mask guy at Wal-Mart?

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1 hour ago, East Coast Aztec said:

You knew the venue was going to indemnify themselves.  Why shouldn't he as well?  Wouldn't be surprised if we get the same when we go to purchase tickets for sporting events.  It just makes sense.

The venue is covering their ass and taking money. The President is asking for people to show up to said venue and 'potentially' put themselves in harm's way, ignoring gov't recommendations and not hold him liable for getting them to go there ( if they get sick). I get the ' didn't make them come here' legal argument. ...but damn, dude you are making them come there, they are your supporters,  why look at them like potential litigants?  I know why ...because of your paranoia.  Don't hold rallies in venues like rock stars...do it on twitter.

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Oh shit .......

https://www.newsweek.com/two-weeks-after-protests-over-george-floyds-death-began-new-coronavirus-cases-minnesota-continue-1509989

Two Weeks After Protests Over George Floyd's Death Began, New Coronavirus Cases in Minnesota Continue to Drop

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16 minutes ago, BSUTOP25 said:

Oh shit .......

https://www.newsweek.com/two-weeks-after-protests-over-george-floyds-death-began-new-coronavirus-cases-minnesota-continue-1509989

Two Weeks After Protests Over George Floyd's Death Began, New Coronavirus Cases in Minnesota Continue to Drop

With other states seeing slight increases, I have to wonder if these folks have been tested or if the virus isn't as spreadable as once thought?

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10 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

With other states seeing slight increases, I have to wonder if these folks have been tested or if the virus isn't as spreadable as once thought?

I believe the truth to be somewhere between the two extremes. You’ve got the deniers crowd who think this is all a hoax and we should just go on with life as normal without any measures to protect people. Then you’ve got the paranoia we’re all going to die crowd who demand indefinite mandatory lock downs except for big box retail, liquor stores, pot dispensaries, and mass protests. 

Personally, I would just like us to find some pragmatic and data supported ways to open things up while providing guidance and resources to protect those areas and individuals most at risk. This all or nothing shit ain’t working.

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6 minutes ago, BSUTOP25 said:

I believe the truth to be somewhere between the two extremes. You’ve got the deniers crowd who think this is all a hoax and we should just go on with life as normal without any measures to protect people. Then you’ve got the paranoia we’re all going to die crowd who demand indefinite mandatory lock downs except for big box retail, liquor stores, pot dispensaries, and mass protests. 

Personally, I would just like us to find some pragmatic and data supported ways to open things up while providing guidance and resources to protect those areas and individuals most at risk. This all or nothing shit ain’t working.

I think the data supports opening up more for most areas.  I have a concern about workers who still feel a personal threat getting fired for not showing up when their job opens up.  I don't think they would qualify for ADA protection.  Perhaps a furlough if they can't telework and use temp staffing?

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The seven day average Daily New Case count is down 34% from peak. The seven day average Daily Death count is down 66%.  The protests are going to prove danger is overblown, particularly outdoors.  Maybe that data will support full and normal football season.

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