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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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7 hours ago, NorCalCoug said:

Their Utah #’s are wrong...  only 125 current hospitalizations in the state per UDOH update just yesterday afternoon.

And that is total hospitalizations, not just patients in ICU.  We have something like 2,100 beds reserved for Covid and 185 ICU beds.  Who was not expecting the numbers to go up when restrictions were eased?

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On 6/9/2020 at 5:50 AM, CV147 said:

Well, I got tested this morning. I should find out in a few days whether I get some vacation time.

Well don’t keep us in suspense 

Disclaimer: Any views or opinions presented by this poster (Warbow) are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Univesity of Hawaii or it's loyal fans. All quotes and opinions from Warbow are valid for 30 days following the date of post transmission and are subject to change at any time. All information published herein by Warbow is gathered from his own opinions or sources which are thought to be reliable, but the reader should not assume that the information is official or fact.

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2 hours ago, IanforHeisman said:

My 2 boys have flag football games at the fairgrounds.. Hundreds of people there, 7-8 games going on at the same time. It’s been nice having some outdoor sports again but I’d be lying if I don’t second guess myself every day.

That’s over now. If gathering for the right political cause is okay, gathering for your children’s childhood is certainly fine. That’s life worth living, and too many epidemiologists threw away their word to tell you otherwise.

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We’re all sitting in the dugout. Thinking we should pitch. How you gonna throw a shutout when all you do is bitch.

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3 hours ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

That’s over now. If gathering for the right political cause is okay, gathering for your children’s childhood is certainly fine. That’s life worth living, and too many epidemiologists threw away their word to tell you otherwise.

This just could not be any more true.  We keep being told to trust the science.  Follow the science.  Then you get an in-your-face 180 degree turn based on politics.

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15 hours ago, BYUcougfan said:

And that is total hospitalizations, not just patients in ICU.  We have something like 2,100 beds reserved for Covid and 185 ICU beds.  Who was not expecting the numbers to go up when restrictions were eased?

Wall Street apparently.

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16 hours ago, BYUcougfan said:

And that is total hospitalizations, not just patients in ICU.  We have something like 2,100 beds reserved for Covid and 185 ICU beds.  Who was not expecting the numbers to go up when restrictions were eased?

Here's San Diego

image.png.1b8e4d6158ebd1c614f057c30a5a2725.png

No matter how much some people want to make this a crisis, it's not.

Here's a list of the dead in a county of 3.4 million, that are listed as having died of the disease without underlying health conditions

image.png.7818a0c825da65db76abb2c04a3dfb02.png

 

I'm taking bets on what percentage of these in actuality had an underlying health condition.

There's not a curve anywhere in the reported data that shows an increase in any metric.

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19 Watch.pdf

 

 

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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20 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

Here's San Diego

image.png.1b8e4d6158ebd1c614f057c30a5a2725.png

No matter how much some people want to make this a crisis, it's not.

Here's a list of the dead in a county of 3.4 million, that are listed as having died of the disease without underlying health conditions

image.png.7818a0c825da65db76abb2c04a3dfb02.png

 

I'm taking bets on what percentage of these in actuality had an underlying health condition.

There's not a curve anywhere in the reported data that shows an increase in any metric.

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19 Watch.pdf

 

 

You would expect San Diegans (is that the right way to say it?) of all stripes to cheer at this data.  My guess is that is not what is happening.  Covid is obviously a thing.  A thing we should be careful with....see Arizona, but it looks more and more like we should be getting back to life and protecting the folks that need protecting.

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19 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

From one of the articles

Quote

A model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington showed in mid-May that Arizona would reach about 2,900 deaths from the disease by August 4. It now predicts more than 4,400 by that date.

Pro Tip:  If your model requires continual adjustment, particularly of this magnitude, it's not a model.  It's a guess.

 

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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4 minutes ago, BYUcougfan said:

You would expect San Diegans (is that the right way to say it?) of all stripes to cheer at this data.  My guess is that is not what is happening.  Covid is obviously a thing.  A thing we should be careful with....see Arizona, but it looks more and more like we should be getting back to life and protecting the folks that need protecting.

We know who the vulnerable are. We know how to protect them. We've known these things for awhile now.  This nonsense needs to stop.

The fatality rate amongst the young and productive is near zero.  There is excess hospital capacity to deal with those who  have severe symptoms but for the vast majority of positive cases, there are either no or mild symptoms. 

The disease will run its course.

People will die from it. 

'twas ever thus.

 

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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3 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

From one of the articles

Pro Tip:  If your model requires continual adjustment, particularly of this magnitude, it's not a model.  It's a guess.

 

dealing a brand new virus that we're learning new stuff about daily, with changing criteria daily and a hundred other factors. What do you expect, its an evolving situation/a moving target?

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14 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

dealing a brand new virus that we're learning new stuff about daily, with changing criteria daily and a hundred other factors. What do you expect, its an evolving situation/a moving target?

There ya go with yer evolution nonsense, now ya lost em.

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20 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

dealing a brand new virus that we're learning new stuff about daily, with changing criteria daily and a hundred other factors. What do you expect, its an evolving situation/a moving target?

That's my point.   The "models" suck. The current panic was based on models that initially predicted millions of deaths in the US alone.  We now know this isn't the case and policies that were based on these failed models need to be revised such that people who aren't vulnerable to the disease can get on with their lives.   That is what states with rational leadership are doing, understanding full well that there WILL be an increase in positive test results.

Life must go on.

BTW:  The models for the next pandemic will suck also.

and the one after that.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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17 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

dealing a brand new virus that we're learning new stuff about daily, with changing criteria daily and a hundred other factors. What do you expect, its an evolving situation/a moving target?

 

2 minutes ago, renoskier said:

There ya go with yer evolution nonsense, now ya lost em.

I do benchmarking and modeling for a living.  When a client asks me to develop a financial model for their card portfolio, it is based on hard data and benchmarking my team has developed.  Otherwise, we tell them we will work with them on estimates.  At least for me, a model implies a certain amount of preciseness above and beyond estimating at the unknown.  I think all they meant by model is that they acknowledged a bunch of moving parts and levers and then made their best guess at what they might be.  They should have just said it is our best estimate....but that might not be taken seriously.  As it turns out, those early guesses should not have been taken seriously.

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1 minute ago, SDSUfan said:

That's my point.   The "models" suck. The current panic was based on models that initially predicted millions of deaths in the US alone.  We now know this isn't the case and policies that were based on these failed models need to be revised such that people who aren't vulnerable to the disease can get on with their lives.   That is what states with rational leadership are doing understanding full well that there WILL be an increase in positive test results.

Life must go on.

BTW:  The models for the next pandemic will suck also.

and the one after that.

we didn't really know how this would play out back in March so we exercised every precaution. It was the best course of action at the time. Had we handled it like Sweden, this would be the outcry:

Quote

 

Sweden’s top epidemiologist has admitted his strategy to fight COVID-19 resulted in too many deaths, after persuading his country to avoid a strict lockdown.

“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Anders Tegnell said in an interview with Swedish Radio.

 

https://fortune.com/2020/06/10/sweden-coronavirus-briefings-scandal/

https://fortune.com/2020/06/03/sweden-chose-a-looser-lockdown-the-scientist-behind-the-strategy-now-says-the-death-toll-is-too-high/

 

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