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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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10 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Are they going to update the models with the new, much lower fatality and hospitalization rates as they continue to come out?

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Down from 68,000 to 60,000 for the first wave this week. New York and Jersey look worst than suspected, Massachusetts and Connecticut much better. 

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27 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

No, there is no shortage if they have excess capacity currently.  That makes no sense.

There may be a shortage for future planned testing but by definition we are currently under utilizing current testing.

The location of the labs with capacity forms a constraint.

The swabs and reagents also are a constraint on testing. Do we have supplies for a week, 2 weeks, a month? We don't know current supply levels and how long they can last at the current or an increased pace.

The article also doesn't tell us the upper limit for tests per day at private labs or their plans for capacity expansion. They say testing peaked at 108,000 per day (756,000 per week) at private labs. But we are seeing much, much larger estimates of the number of daily tests from private and public labs needed to reopen the country.

It is good news that for now a few more people in some areas can be tested (I had an elderly family member who's doctor wanted testing last week who had to wait several days because of availability issues in that area). But I am still concerned about our overall lab capacity and situation.

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49 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Down from 68,000 to 60,000 for the first wave this week. New York and Jersey look worst than suspected, Massachusetts and Connecticut much better. 

They have Utah as one of the later states to re-open (June 21).  Same with AZ.  I read that UT and AZ are targeting to re-open together on May 1.  I will be shocked if that does not happen...assuming the cases stay as low as they currently are.  It is hard to show a decline when you only have 100 or so new infections each day as it is.

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1 hour ago, CPslograd said:

No, there is no shortage if they have excess capacity currently.  That makes no sense.

There may be a shortage for future planned testing but by definition we are currently under utilizing current testing.

I don’t know where these media sites get their information but from a frontline perspective, there definitely is still a shortage. We have daily updates on inventory of rapid PCR tests. Our hospital which is In a hotspot has 25 Cepheid tests left and less than 90 Abbott tests which is very labor intensive. Once these are gone, we can’t find more supply. We’ll be back to the 3-7 day turnaround tests again. We’re still a long way off.

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1 hour ago, FresnoFacts said:

Second wave worse than the first?

I already knew that was likely. Bob showed 2 days ago that would likely happen with his 1918 graph. :D

First wave for that pandemic was July 1918. Second wave was October/November 1918 and much worse.

1918's second wave was worse because the virus mutated to a form more dangerous for younger people (COVID-19 mutations are already being seen). Plus people started taking fewer precautions during the second wave becoming more complacent. Philadelphia hosting a parade September 28, 1918 is just one example

We won't know what will happen with COVID-19, but those who do not remember the past......

From what I understand, complacency and fewer precautions in October were particularly deadly in the Bay Area as there was no statewide policy, just local and the mayor of what was then the state's most populous city, SF, simply implimented a mask-wearing requirement but no social distancing as was done in L.A. And then in November following the WWI armistice, hundreds of thousands of doughboys brought a mutated variety of the disease back with them from Europe. We won't have the latter problem with COVID-19 and let's hope a vaccine is found long before the 12-month mark that's been speculated.

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10 minutes ago, retrofade said:

 

With the news of a second wave coming in the Fall with no vaccine in sight I'll be surprised if we go back to a regular school schedule at least here in California. We will be having meetings next week about the very real possibility of going to an online independent study format for my district. 

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1 hour ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

From what I understand, complacency and fewer precautions in October were particularly deadly in the Bay Area as there was no statewide policy, just local and the mayor of what was then the state's most populous city, SF, simply implimented a mask-wearing requirement but no social distancing as was done in L.A. And then in November following the WWI armistice, hundreds of thousands of doughboys brought a mutated variety of the disease back with them from Europe. We won't have the latter problem with COVID-19 and let's hope a vaccine is found long before the 12-month mark that's been speculated.

that doesn't really track though. the armistice was november 11th. To get just from new york to france it takes about 15 days and then it is another 4 days to San Fran. Unless literally at 11:01 doughboys loaded on to ships at port they weren't in SF yet in November and even that would be november 30th.

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I think it's worth pointing out that in just seven weeks, COVID-19 has killed over 30% more Americans (45,000) than the flu did in the entire 2018-2019 season (34,200).

And it required shutting everything down just to keep it this low. I also think we're nowhere near the end - I still think the death toll will be twice what the best-case predictions are before this is all said and done. 

Screen-Shot-2020-04-21-at-7-18-06-PM.png

 

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On 4/20/2020 at 1:20 PM, UNLV2001 said:

Don't think this is bad news, but shows there is uncertainty to what effects the virus has on various people & the dangers of some being somewhat immune while others might get hit hard.

Genetics will play a part in survival rates 

 

 

IMO the most important takeaway is that 96% of the population is still susceptible. 

So if the entire susceptible population were exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we could expect hospitalizations and death counts to be approx. 25x higher as well. In LA County, that would translate to over 15,000 fatalities.

And if that infection rate were to hold for the entire country, full exposure would translate to over 1.1 million fatalities.

 

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Very anecdotal, but a co-worker started showing symptoms March 14th and was told to self quarantine for two weeks and await further health department guidance. Was tested at the latter part of the two weeks, then received a positive result outside of the two week period. Was told to retest after a number of days past the last symptom, and just tested positive again. Another retest scheduled this weekend. 
 

It can’t be good if that’s happening to others. WTF? Anyone else seeing this in their circle outside of the South Korean reports? 

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4 hours ago, NMpackalum said:

I don’t know where these media sites get their information but from a frontline perspective, there definitely is still a shortage. We have daily updates on inventory of rapid PCR tests. Our hospital which is In a hotspot has 25 Cepheid tests left and less than 90 Abbott tests which is very labor intensive. Once these are gone, we can’t find more supply. We’ll be back to the 3-7 day turnaround tests again. We’re still a long way off.

The articles on that were basically quoting Quest Diagnostics, which is one of the largest sources of testing, in regards to their excess capacity.  A couple articles I have come across mention that one of the issues is too many different types of tests.

Anyway, that obviously doesn't dispute your point in a different location or testing outlet.

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14 minutes ago, crixus said:

Well Shitfire, look how the question was phrased.  Of course a majority in that poll answered the way they did.

Actually that article is even more awful the second time I read it.  First of all, is that online poll even scientific?

Secondly, Trump has not "demanded businesses reopen".  That's an opinion piece couched as a new article.

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3 hours ago, ridgeview2 said:

With the news of a second wave coming in the Fall with no vaccine in sight I'll be surprised if we go back to a regular school schedule at least here in California. We will be having meetings next week about the very real possibility of going to an online independent study format for my district. 

My district has been terrible in their "remote learning" offerings.  If they close schools into the fall I'm looking at putting my two oldest in either a private or charter school.  Do me a favor please and keep me updated on how that proceeds on your end.

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5 hours ago, Bob said:

Highly doubt it

And if it is, that doesn't support the case of extreme lockdowns right now in low exposure areas in my opinion.

If it is going to be worse in the Fall, wouldn't we be better off with a higher percentage of people having antibodies?

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