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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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4 hours ago, NMpackalum said:

I don’t know where these media sites get their information but from a frontline perspective, there definitely is still a shortage. We have daily updates on inventory of rapid PCR tests. Our hospital which is In a hotspot has 25 Cepheid tests left and less than 90 Abbott tests which is very labor intensive. Once these are gone, we can’t find more supply. We’ll be back to the 3-7 day turnaround tests again. We’re still a long way off.

The articles on that were basically quoting Quest Diagnostics, which is one of the largest sources of testing, in regards to their excess capacity.  A couple articles I have come across mention that one of the issues is too many different types of tests.

Anyway, that obviously doesn't dispute your point in a different location or testing outlet.

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14 minutes ago, crixus said:

Well Shitfire, look how the question was phrased.  Of course a majority in that poll answered the way they did.

Actually that article is even more awful the second time I read it.  First of all, is that online poll even scientific?

Secondly, Trump has not "demanded businesses reopen".  That's an opinion piece couched as a new article.

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3 hours ago, ridgeview2 said:

With the news of a second wave coming in the Fall with no vaccine in sight I'll be surprised if we go back to a regular school schedule at least here in California. We will be having meetings next week about the very real possibility of going to an online independent study format for my district. 

My district has been terrible in their "remote learning" offerings.  If they close schools into the fall I'm looking at putting my two oldest in either a private or charter school.  Do me a favor please and keep me updated on how that proceeds on your end.

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5 hours ago, Bob said:

Highly doubt it

And if it is, that doesn't support the case of extreme lockdowns right now in low exposure areas in my opinion.

If it is going to be worse in the Fall, wouldn't we be better off with a higher percentage of people having antibodies?

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17 minutes ago, CPslograd said:

My district has been terrible in their "remote learning" offerings.  If they close schools into the fall I'm looking at putting my two oldest in either a private or charter school.  Do me a favor please and keep me updated on how that proceeds on your end.

Remote learning is going to be a huge contributor to disparities between rich and poor school districts. Rich districts are doing zoom classes and at least trying to keep up with homework. Poor districts have essentially ended the year. The longer schools are closed, the worse it will get. I personally think if they keep the schools closed in the fall, you will have a whole heap load of kids who are at least a year behind where they would have otherwise been. Talk about ripple effect.

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25 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Remote learning is going to be a huge contributor to disparities between rich and poor school districts. Rich districts are doing zoom classes and at least trying to keep up with homework. Poor districts have essentially ended the year. The longer schools are closed, the worse it will get. I personally think if they keep the schools closed in the fall, you will have a whole heap load of kids who are at least a year behind where they would have otherwise been. Talk about ripple effect.

Agreed in principal.  The only thing is district admin competence matters a lot too.  Some of the rural districts in Tulare county are handling this much better than VUSD, and they have less resources than Visalia.

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26 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Remote learning is going to be a huge contributor to disparities between rich and poor school districts. Rich districts are doing zoom classes and at least trying to keep up with homework. Poor districts have essentially ended the year. The longer schools are closed, the worse it will get. I personally think if they keep the schools closed in the fall, you will have a whole heap load of kids who are at least a year behind where they would have otherwise been. Talk about ripple effect.

There is the other side of the coin as well.  Two weekends ago I drove by a couple of small graduation parties.  It took me a bit to realize that these graduation parties were in early April, not late May.  After mentioning it at the town convenience store (the locus of all local information) I discovered that many seniors had gotten their online assignments and whipped through them in record time.  Since we won't have an actual graduation ceremony in town this year, the parents had held small graduation parties.  I don't know if these are just smart kids, or if the school system isn't really challenging them.  I suspect I know the answer. They finished over a month early when the teachers got out of the way, and it wasn't just one kid.

I do agree with you though that while online seems to change the dynamic for the better for some, it can certainly go the other way for a lot of others.  Some of these kids are going to really suffer from the lack of one on one attention from a real teacher.

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1 hour ago, CPslograd said:

My district has been terrible in their "remote learning" offerings.  If they close schools into the fall I'm looking at putting my two oldest in either a private or charter school.  Do me a favor please and keep me updated on how that proceeds on your end.

We've had some big issues on our end as well. I work at a very remote high school so not all of the students have access to stable internet at home. The week after Easter I recorded almost a 35% drop off in student participation. We have assignments online through Google Classroom and those students who don't have access to internet at home can pick up a packet from school every week. All of our classes are now pass/fail, so if students ended the 3rd quarter with an D or higher they pass the semester no matter what (C or higher for CP courses). If they get an F then they need to do the assigned work each week to raise their grade to pass the 4th quarter.

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1 hour ago, CPslograd said:

Agreed in principal.  The only thing is district admin competence matters a lot too.  Some of the rural districts in Tulare county are handling this much better than VUSD, and they have less resources than Visalia.

I agree admin competence matters a lot. When I was subbing in poor rural schools with pretty much identical student demographics, the difference in quality was immediately evident. And it had everything to do with learning environment, which has everything to do with admin. But admin loses complete control of learning environment with remote learning. Rich schools dont have the same problem. Even the relatively well run poor schools wont be able to keep up with remote learning. 

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8 hours ago, CPslograd said:

Agreed in principal.  The only thing is district admin competence matters a lot too.  Some of the rural districts in Tulare county are handling this much better than VUSD, and they have less resources than Visalia.

This is true.  I have a friend in Arizona.  They live in an upscale community.  All but one of his kids goes to a charter school.  The charter school was ready to go, day one, with online classes.  They saw where things were headed and started planning before things shut down.  It isn't perfect, but the kids are learning.  The one kid who is in public school gets an email of reading assignments with little to no follow up.  The public school has far, far more resources, but there is such a bureaucracy across the district to figure out what to do that nothing happens.  This is not meant as an attack on anyone here who works in the public school system.  If you are a teacher, then I applaud you for fighting the good fight.  However, there are just so many times when government can't get out of its own way.

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13 hours ago, TheSanDiegan said:

I think it's worth pointing out that in just seven weeks, COVID-19 has killed over 30% more Americans (45,000) than the flu did in the entire 2018-2019 season (34,200).

And it required shutting everything down just to keep it this low. I also think we're nowhere near the end - I still think the death toll will be twice what the best-case predictions are before this is all said and done. 

Screen-Shot-2020-04-21-at-7-18-06-PM.png

 

I agree that the eventual mortality figures for Covid are going to be higher than 60k that the recent modeling suggests but I think you are underestimating the average influenza risks. Influenza mortality are influenced by 45% vaccine coverage in adults and the availability of very good antiviral treatment or the death rate would be much higher.

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54 minutes ago, NMpackalum said:

I agree that the eventual mortality figures for Covid are going to be higher than 60k that the recent modeling suggests but I think you are underestimating the average influenza risks. Influenza mortality are influenced by 45% vaccine coverage in adults and the availability of very good antiviral treatment or the death rate would be much higher.

Good point - when all this popped up on the radar screen as a looming issue and I began diving into it back in Jan, I was surprised to learn just how deadly the influenza virus had become over the last half-dozen years.

Side note: My dad had to drive my mom to the ER in Dec. 2018 after she collapsed in their bathroom due to flu complications. She had developed pneumonia and had gone septic, and came within minutes of becoming a flu statistic. That same week, my wife lost one of her uncles in India to the same complications (sepsis and pneumonia), who died in the ambulance on the way to the hospital. Subsequently, this last December marked the first time I have chosen to get a flu shot.

 

 

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17 hours ago, happycamper said:

that doesn't really track though. the armistice was november 11th. To get just from new york to france it takes about 15 days and then it is another 4 days to San Fran. Unless literally at 11:01 doughboys loaded on to ships at port they weren't in SF yet in November and even that would be november 30th.

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

BTW, my son just called and he and everybody else from his cabinet making company have been sent home because three of his co-workers tested positive for COVID-19. He's 26 and strong as an ox so should be okay if he's also contracted the virus but I sure hope that isn't the case.

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3 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

BTW, my son just called and he and everybody else from his cabinet making company have been sent home because one of his co-workers tested positive for COVID-19. He's 26 and strong as an ox so should be okay if he's also contracted the virus but I sure hope that isn't the case.

Wishing you and yours well. 

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6 minutes ago, SleepingGiantFan said:

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

BTW, my son just called and he and everybody else from his cabinet making company have been sent home because one of his co-workers tested positive for COVID-19. He's 26 and strong as an ox so should be okay if he's also contracted the virus but I sure hope that isn't the case.

Yeah prayers for him. 

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