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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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1 hour ago, sactowndog said:

One thing to keep in mind is we have been relatively lucky.  Attached is the Covid per 1M residents and CA is an order of Magnitude below New York.  Had Covid gotten into the CA population centers like the New York Metro things would have been ugly.  
 

 

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You have to credit Gavin Newsome’s quick response for that.  His decision to lock down CA before almost everybody else saved a bunch of lives and likely prevented the CA hospital systems from being overrun. 

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Just now, mugtang said:

You have to credit Gavin Newsome’s quick response for that.  His decision to lock down CA before almost everybody else saved a bunch of lives and likely prevented the CA hospital systems from being overrun. 

For all the accolades Cuomo has received, Newsom has been the real star during this pandemic.

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1 minute ago, NorCalCoug said:

For all the accolades Cuomo has received, Newsom has been the real star during this pandemic.

So far.  He has to ramp up testing faster and get us back to work.   But yeah to date he has done well.

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5 hours ago, mugtang said:

Being so close to this situation, I’m already hearing lots of bitching regarding the expense of this parking lot-to-medical facility operation (is the plank flooring necessary, why aren’t the Army Corps in charge, are they using Fed funds, etc), because the hospital system also announced pay reductions for some employees today. 
 

I was already curious about possibly converting casinos/hotels to overflow hospitals, but now I’d really like to hear from anyone who might know about the logistics of converting a parking garage to said overflow facility. 
 

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8 minutes ago, Mad_Hatter said:

Being so close to this situation, I’m already hearing lots of bitching regarding the expense of this parking lot-to-medical facility operation (is the plank flooring necessary, why aren’t the Army Corps in charge, are they using Fed funds, etc), because the hospital system also announced pay reductions for some employees today. 
 

I was already curious about possibly converting casinos/hotels to overflow hospitals, but now I’d really like to hear from anyone who might know about the logistics of converting a parking garage to said overflow facility. 
 

I think an obstacle to converting casinos to hospital overflow is the distance between the two. The garage is right there.  

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1 hour ago, mugtang said:

You have to credit Gavin Newsome’s quick response for that.  His decision to lock down CA before almost everybody else saved a bunch of lives and likely prevented the CA hospital systems from being overrun. 

Newsom 2028

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25 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I think an obstacle to converting casinos to hospital overflow is the distance between the two. The garage is right there.  

I get that, but what kind of standards need to be incorporated? Yes it’s awfully convenient having a 6 story structure a stones throw away from the hospital, but what kind of standards need to be incorporated regarding floors, HVAC, electrical, sanitation, etc. Are the local contractors equipped for this or should the Army Cops be handling it? (Or are they involved already)

I’d just like to be educated about the situation before I start telling people on campus to STFU about it. IMO at least we have a hospital being pro-active about this and not waiting until they’re already overrun, but on the other hand I hear frontline healthcare workers are about to get taken advantage of on wages. 
 

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Just now, Mad_Hatter said:

I get that, but what kind of standards need to be incorporated? Yes it’s awfully convenient having a 6 story structure a stones throw away from the hospital, but what kind of standards need to be incorporated regarding floors, HVAC, electrical, sanitation, etc. Are the local contractors equipped for this or should the Army Cops be handling it? (Or are they involved already)

I’d just like to be educated about the situation before I start telling people on campus to STFU about it. IMO at least we have a hospital being pro-active about this and not waiting until they’re already overrun, but on the other hand I hear frontline healthcare workers are about to get taken advantage of on wages. 
 

I’m not an expert or even casually knowledgeable on the issue so I’d just be guessing or making shit up. 

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1 hour ago, mugtang said:

You have to credit Gavin Newsome’s quick response for that.  His decision to lock down CA before almost everybody else saved a bunch of lives and likely prevented the CA hospital systems from being overrun. 

He used a scare tactic, said half the population of California would be infected. 
 

Shortly after one of his lonely aids said (page six material) that his figures were based on if we did nothing.  

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44 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I’m not an expert or even casually knowledgeable on the issue so I’d just be guessing or making shit up. 

Same here, hoping someone in the know will chime in with some insight. 

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46 minutes ago, tailingpermit said:

He used a scare tactic, said half the population of California would be infected. 
 

Shortly after one of his lonely aids said (page six material) that his figures were based on if we did nothing.  

Scare tactics or not, quick action is likely a big reason why San Francisco doesn’t look like New York right now. 

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54 minutes ago, Mad_Hatter said:

Scare tactics or not, quick action is likely a big reason why San Francisco doesn’t look like New York right now. 

San Francisco was already on a shelter in place order, all he did was cause panic. 

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On 4/6/2020 at 12:36 PM, Bob said:

Have fun living with debilitating mental retardation. So you think by predicting one-two million deaths WITH strict social distancing in the beginning is a bang- up job by the modelers?

Bob, this seems to be where you’re not getting it. The two million deaths in America were based on a model where no distancing was taken. This number was given with the best data we had in late February and early March for what the effect it would have on the U.K and extrapolated to our much larger population. With the extreme social distancing measures in place and public school closures, they estimated a much lower death toll for the U.K., which if extrapolated out in the same way would put us at about 140,000 deaths. When Trump, Fauci, and Birx gave their estimations last week in the first major announcement of projections we had, with the best available evidence they had a month after the original Imperial College Study, the death toll looked to be right in line with it between 100,000 and 240,000.

A week has to passed. We’ve taken even stricter measures than what was called for in the extreme social distancing model of the original study. The expected death toll is dropping, today precipitously.

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These are the resources that politicians used to make important decisions like, you know, shutting the +++++ing economy down for weeks on end. ffs. Now that's it's apparent that the virus is nowhere near as deadly as initially declared (by them) they are adjusting their models downward to fit reality based on 'new data'. The underlying premise of their model was wrong. The assumptions used to develop their models were incorrect based on their "math and shit". What a useful resource they turned out to be! No basis in reality.

You’ve been piled on a bit these past couple of days and I’m not here to do that. I had to backread and saw this as a central misunderstanding. You’re right to question if what we did was appropriate, it’s an important question. The Venn diagram meme you posted was the truest thing I’ve seen anywhere for awhile. But you need to get it through your head the modelers did the best they could with the info they had at the time, that the huge number was if we did nothing, and that it is a good sign we’re below their projections.

How much policy we should have based on their projections is an entirely reasonable question. Portraying it like the no action taken projection is the same as the harshest measures taken, let alone comparing it to the harsher measures still that we’ve taken, is not.

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I very much dislike Tucker Carlson, but there is factual evidence that he did not take this virus lightly.

Worth a listen...

 

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3 hours ago, tailingpermit said:

I very much dislike Tucker Carlson, but there is factual evidence that he did not take this virus lightly.

Worth a listen...

 

I don’t think even Dems think he took it lightly.  He was one of the few Fox News folks who put country over Trumps early message.  

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France is being bludgeoned now. Of the Western countries, France, Italy, and Spain have been hit the hardest. 

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Remember when the H1N1 death toll in the US was proof of how shitty a job Obama did with handling that pandemic? There were 12,469 reported deaths in the US in 2009 due to H1N1... we hit 12,857 deaths from COVID-19 yesterday. The H1N1 deaths occurred over the course of a year, while the COVID-19 deaths have been over the five weeks. 

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21 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Remember when the H1N1 death toll in the US was proof of how shitty a job Obama did with handling that pandemic? There were 12,469 reported deaths in the US in 2009 due to H1N1... we hit 12,857 deaths from COVID-19 yesterday. The H1N1 deaths occurred over the course of a year, while the COVID-19 deaths have been over the five weeks. 

Lol — I get what you’re trying to say here but are you not sinking to that same level? I think we all get the hypocrisy and false equivalencies from Trump and the right at this point. I mean, you and I could go back and pull some Pelosi and Cuomo quotes from a couple of months ago but I don’t think that would move the needle much on current opinions. 

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Trump is the last man I want leading me through anything, and he’s said some full retard level stuff on the virus, but I’m giving him a pass on this whole thing. It’s a new experience and no one is going to be fully satisfied by America’s reaction no matter R or D. America wasn’t prepared and that doesn’t fall on him.

 

Plenty of reasons time dislike the guy, but at least he’s come full circle and not calling this a joke anymore.

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11 minutes ago, IanforHeisman said:

Trump is the last man I want leading me through anything, and he’s said some full retard level stuff on the virus, but I’m giving him a pass on this whole thing. It’s a new experience and no one is going to be fully satisfied by America’s reaction no matter R or D. America wasn’t prepared and that doesn’t fall on him.

 

Plenty of reasons time dislike the guy, but at least he’s come full circle and not calling this a joke anymore.

I can’t stand to listen to that moron. I tried to make it through a part of his presser the other day and I just couldn’t take it. 

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