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bornontheblue

Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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Bob at the doctor

doctor: bob, I’m sorry to say this, but you have cancer

bob: no I don’t 

doctor: we’re going to put you on an aggressive treatment program, and that, along with early detection, will hopefully get you through this 

bob: but what about the economy

[six months later]
 

doctor: well bob, I know it wasn’t easy, but after a lot of hard work and a little luck, you are officially cancer-free

bob: see doc, I told you I didn’t have cancer

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1 hour ago, smltwnrckr said:

Oh yes, you are absolutely right about partisans ignoring science when it suits their purpose. If anything, I am saying that means - at least on the back end - math and science are political... especially as soon as they are incorporated into any public discourse such as pandemic response. It's ignoring the realities of the human experience to suggest otherwise, or it is a political and rhetorical act to suggest otherwise. 

In terms of the math itself, saying something emerged in a particular political and cultural context, in my opinion, is not something that reflects poorly on that thing. It just helps us better understand knowledge.

It is a fascinating take, I'll tell you that. Tbh, I really need to sit down with a cigar and a couple beers and really give it the contemplation it deserves. :cheers:

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1 hour ago, NorCalCoug said:

If only the people doing the science/math and presenting the findings were devoid of bias too. 

That's is a fair point. Hence the critical need for peer reviews as a mechanism of self-policing.

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1 hour ago, Bob said:

Thanks for the thoughtful post. You are able to type fast and put information into an easily comprehensible format in not much time. Well done. With all due respect you could have stopped at 2. The modellers didn't have sufficient data (or didn't interpret correctly what data was available), made assumptions that were wildly incorrect and mislead billions of people about the danger of the virus. Important decision that affected everyone on the planet were made based on these models.

And thank you in kind for the respectful reply. :cheers:

We may choose to disagree as to whether or not the modelers (myself included) possessed sufficient data, but in the interest in carrying this hospitality forward, I think we can agree that we both want them to be wrong by orders of magnitude. 

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Halfway through the day, we've already hit a new high mark for deaths reported in a day at 1,530.

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1 hour ago, tspoke said:

And you have the correct data or you know its insufficient how? You have been calling out all the scientists and modelers for being wrong(which they haven't been) without providing any basis for your why your predictions were right. Its like I said a couple weeks ago when this started, if things continue to go in an upward trajectory and things turn out to be better than was predicted(which isn't a given, its stil early) you get to crow about being right while ignoring the reason you were right was because people reacted aggressively and cut down on the transmission of the virus. So heres to you crowing like an asshole for the next coming months claiming to be right because that means we came out of this pretty well.

Yup. This model was spot on. A fine example of modelling excellence. EU7yI9DU8AEmm5h?format=jpg&name=large

 

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12 minutes ago, Bob said:

Yup. This model was spot on. A fine example of modelling excellence. EU7yI9DU8AEmm5h?format=jpg&name=large

 

Good +++++ing Christ man. THE MODEL CHANGED BECAUSE ALL THE ECONOMY-RUINING SHIT YOU HATE IS ACTUALLY WORKING MY GOD I CANT BELIEVE YOU NEED THIS EXPLAINED TO YOU IM NOT EVEN A MATH GUY AND I UNDERSTAND THIS YOU ARE EITHER A TROLL OR SO INCREDIBLY DENSE THAT IF YOU WERE A CITY COVID-19 WOULD COMPLETELY +++++ING RAVAGE YOU

Sorry Schitts Creek GIF by CBC

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Just now, SJSUMFA2013 said:

Good +++++ing Christ man. THE MODEL CHANGED BECAUSE ALL THE ECONOMY-RUINING SHIT YOU HATE IS ACTUALLY WORKING MY GOD I CANT BELIEVE YOU NEED THIS EXPLAINED TO YOU IM NOT EVEN A MATH GUY AND I UNDERSTAND THIS YOU ARE EITHER A TROLL OR SO INCREDIBLY DENSE THAT IF YOU WERE A CITY COVID-19 WOULD COMPLETELY +++++ING RAVAGE YOU

Sorry Schitts Creek GIF by CBC

Nope, the original projection was with strict social distancing. Try again.  I can't believe you need this explained to you. :facepalm:

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This is awesome:

 

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11 minutes ago, Bob said:

Nope, the original projection was with strict social distancing. Try again.  I can't believe you need this explained to you. :facepalm:

Uh-huh. And it’s working better than anticipated. So +++++ the economy. We’re going to keep doing this.

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Image may contain: text

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Image may contain: nature, possible text that says 'Police now have the power to split up groups. Maybe start with Nickelback.'

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41 minutes ago, UNLV2001 said:

 

I just called Mrs sean327, she is on the way to the store as we speak. Thanks for the heads up.

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3 minutes ago, SJSUMFA2013 said:

Uh-huh. And it’s working better than anticipated. So +++++ the economy. We’re going to keep doing this.

There's no point with him. You can't fix stupid.

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40 minutes ago, Bob said:

Yup. This model was spot on. A fine example of modelling excellence. EU7yI9DU8AEmm5h?format=jpg&name=large

 

Let’s be clear...  all statistical models are wrong.  The correct question is whether or not they’re useful.  Are you sure the initial model here factored in social distancing?

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4 minutes ago, retrofade said:

There's no point with him. You can't fix stupid.

Are you sure? Cuz I was going to try it with a claw hammer next

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35 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Let’s be clear...  all statistical models are wrong.  The correct question is whether or not they’re useful.  Are you sure the initial model here factored in social distancing?

Yeah, the top line in the figure I presented represents the line that was in the middle of the band of error (which is basically the degree of which social distancing measures are implemented and assumed) for the IMHE model.

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