Jump to content
bornontheblue

Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

Recommended Posts

Quote

Steve Hilton: To save all lives in the coronavirus crisis, we must slow the spread, but speed the shutdown

If we truly want to save lives -- all lives -- then we need to do two things: Slow the spread but speed the shutdown. It must end as soon as safely possible. But that means we need a better antivirus policy than we have right now.

Last week, I said, open where possible, close where necessary. Shutdowns do slow the spread. Look at the difference between the Bay Area which had the nation's first stay-at-home orders and New York City.

So right now, in the absence of a better antivirus policy, it is necessary to shut things down everywhere, and that includes Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, South Carolina, where there are no statewide stay-at-home orders.

Now, I'm asking those governors, including a great friend of this show, Iowa's Kim Reynolds, to put in place a stay-at-home order at least for the duration of President Trump's slow the spread guidelines.

Of course, that will take a high toll in those states and on our country and jobs, businesses, livelihoods and lives. Remember, this is not a choice between public health and the economy, between lives and money. The shutdown costs lives, too.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/steve-hilton-to-save-all-lives-in-the-coronavirus-crisis-we-must-slow-the-spread-but-speed-the-shutdown

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Just doing some quick googles, and it looks like there actually isn’t currently a line of succession for the PM position in the UK. Sounds like the Conservative party would just have to elect a new leader who would become the PM. Kind of crazy, although I wonder if this will prompt them to come up with a line of succession moving forward.

It looks like Johnson has his Foreign Secretary standing in for the time being.

As you indicate, unlike the US they do not have a set line of succession for continuity of gov

They love to call for elections. Those crazy Brits 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

 

Utah doesn't have a stay at home order, but 3 of the 4 counties with the largest population have them so its pretty much the same

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bob said:

So. Incredible.

You'll never get those experiences you lost back. All so a few old people, who've gotten to live their lives ,can sit in nursing home for 2.1333 more years before passing away.

In New York the median age of those who have died so far has been between 70 and 75.

The same age as the President.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Now as per Nevada state law you both have to cough at the same time while taking each other's temperature with a rectal thermometer. :ph34r: 

That’s how you get corona 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, tspoke said:

What a pro lifer

“Know ye not that thine bodies are reverse mortgages of the Holy Spirit?" 

-Supply Side Jesus

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, mugtang said:

That’s how you get corona 

Only if you share the same thermometer and don't wash your hands afterwards.

giphy.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BYUcougfan said:

These are always interesting takes.  I have no crystal ball about deaths from the virus or how economies will rebound, but it is interesting how everyone goes with the most dire consequences when it comes to projecting the virus impact and the most Pollyanna opinion possible when it comes to the economy's recovery.  A swift recovery is anything but assured at this point.

It is going the opposite of "tens of millions have no jobs and the economy is ruined",  only I added some qualifiers.  Which is an equally interesting take with dire consequences for one argument and pollyana opinion on some notion of a economy that sees no effects, but for shelter-in-place policy.

Now what is the rhetorical difference here?  Well, I at least put qualifiers in there, as optimistic as they were.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

Utah doesn't have a stay at home order, but 3 of the 4 counties with the largest population have them so its pretty much the same

Yep, but an interesting view from Fox's Steve Hilton. And a changing viewpoint from him.

Just a few week's ago Hilton was in the "isolate only the old people and protect the economy" group. Now he is calling for all of the country to shut down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

Utah doesn't have a stay at home order, but 3 of the 4 counties with the largest population have them so its pretty much the same

Social distancing is working here.  I challenge anyone to convince me why a more rigorous statewide shutdown is necessary.  I’m not convinced it will do much above and beyond what the state is doing now.  The spread rate is pretty controlled and constant at this point.  Only 5% of people getting tested are positive.  The death rate is low.  The Stay Home Stay Safe policy is generally effective.  As you point out, where stricter measures are needed they are in place.  Overall, I think Utah is going to weather this fairly well - some of that is attributed to favorable demographics though with a younger population.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Social distancing is working here.  I challenge anyone to convince me why a more rigorous statewide shutdown is necessary.  I’m not convinced it will do much above and beyond what the state is doing now.  The spread rate is pretty controlled and constant at this point.  Only 5% of people getting tested are positive.  The death rate is low.  The Stay Home Stay Safe policy is generally effective.  As you point out, where stricter measures are needed they are in place.  Overall, I think Utah is going to weather this fairly well - some of that is attributed to favorable demographics though with a younger population.

In states with low densities besides the cities, I agree, counties should dictate, and if the infections are low, then stress caution, but no order.  I hope most states shift from state to regional orders soon.  I would still highly, highly stress for elderly and susceptible to be extremely cautious, regardless of location.

  • Cheers 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

In states with low densities besides the cities, I agree, counties should dictate, and if the infections are low, then stress caution, but no order.  I hope most states shift from state to regional orders soon.  I would still highly, highly stress for elderly and susceptible to be extremely cautious, regardless of location.

In MT, most of the cases are in Gallatin and Yellowstone, with a higher-than-average number in Toole...I don't see why most counties can't have freedom of movement, while shutting down the places like Gallatin (Bozeman), Missoula, etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, MetropolitanCowboy said:

In MT, most of the cases are in Gallatin and Yellowstone, with a higher-than-average number in Toole...I don't see why most counties can't have freedom of movement, while shutting down the places like Gallatin (Bozeman), Missoula, etc. 

I wonder if it is a fear that the counties on lockdown will have their population start heading to the non-shelter counties and bring their infections there.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

Social distancing is working here.  I challenge anyone to convince me why a more rigorous statewide shutdown is necessary.  I’m not convinced it will do much above and beyond what the state is doing now.  The spread rate is pretty controlled and constant at this point.  Only 5% of people getting tested are positive.  The death rate is low.  The Stay Home Stay Safe policy is generally effective.  As you point out, where stricter measures are needed they are in place.  Overall, I think Utah is going to weather this fairly well - some of that is attributed to favorable demographics though with a younger population.

There is a point to the fact the lower population density in rural areas does impact both the measured transmissibility as well as the size of an outbreak. 

And to your point, does it matter from whom the stay-at-home order comes provided the population centers that lend themselves to an R0>1 do in fact fall under such an order? I don't think it matters.

As far as Utah's testing is concerned, you guys are testing about 5x the population per capita right now as we are (of course, clearing backlogs and bottlenecks is a more Herculean task with 12x the population). And as the WHO estimates a ration ≥10:1 of tests:+ tests as the threshold for gaining a critical mass of visibility into the extent of the epidemic, you guys do seem to be on top of it. I hope it stays that way for you guys.

 

 

ETA:  One method for estimating the real case count in Utah is to consider your localized CFR of .78% and estimate there were already approx. 1675 cases in the state somewhere between 20-27 days ago, and then using estimated case doubling rates for the state you can estimate what that number would be now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

Yep, but an interesting view from Fox's Steve Hilton. And a changing viewpoint from him.

Just a few week's ago Hilton was in the "isolate only the old people and protect the economy" group. Now he is calling for all of the country to shut down.

Almost everyone changed their mind on this at some point.  The important thing is the willingness to change your mind after being presented with the appropriate facts. 

I think it's open to debate as to whether or not certain politicians that may have been given certain intelligence information ahead of time made an informed opinion quick enough, but for the general population did ok on this one I think. (Considering how hard it is to do something of this nature on this scale and basically give up their way of life temporarily)

 

  • Cheers 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, MetropolitanCowboy said:

In MT, most of the cases are in Gallatin and Yellowstone, with a higher-than-average number in Toole...I don't see why most counties can't have freedom of movement, while shutting down the places like Gallatin (Bozeman), Missoula, etc. 

The small areas have very limited medical capability.  It would only take 5 cases to overwhelm some of those small town hospitals.   Red Lodge just shut down the mountain and town as people kept driving out to hike the hill and ski even though the resort is closed.  Red lodge has few cases but very limited medical and if Billings gets full they won't let them transfer. Whitefish just forced all Hotels and short term rentals like air B&B to close and quit renting to keep people form hiding there and bringing it in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, East Coast Aztec said:

In states with low densities besides the cities, I agree, counties should dictate, and if the infections are low, then stress caution, but no order.  I hope most states shift from state to regional orders soon.  I would still highly, highly stress for elderly and susceptible to be extremely cautious, regardless of location.

I mean... in Chelan and Douglas counties at least actual enforcement of stay home stay safe seems to make this be the reality. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

Norway says their measures have the virus under control. Norway shut down early and did a high level of testing/tracking (a rate of 20,530 people tested per million population).

Too early to say for sure if they are correct. But if true, the measures they imposed have worked so far with their population and culture.

The highlighted word undoubtedly has a lot to do with it.

Compare Norway to the US. Then compare the two to Italy and Spain.

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Education/Average-years-of-schooling-of-adults

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×