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Corona Virus - How bad is it going to be?

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13 minutes ago, Bob said:

Projected 80k deaths. The number keeps going down and down. http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections Shocking turn of events..not.

 

And concerning Hydroxycloroquin, there's pretty good evidence it's effective. Democrats would rather let people die than have Orange Man be right.

 

Where are you finding this "pretty good evidence"?  I'm neither Republican nor Democrat, I make medical recommendations based on evidence.  However, after combing through the medical journals at least every couple days, I can't find anything except small studies from China.  I hope we do have a decent treatment for this disease, but we need more evidence to recommend a dangerous drug.

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Posted this in the good news thread:

 

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Really informative thread from the Chair of the NYC City Council Health Committee about what is really going on there right now. 

 

 

 

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Norway says their measures have the virus under control. Norway shut down early and did a high level of testing/tracking (a rate of 20,530 people tested per million population).

Too early to say for sure if they are correct. But if true, the measures they imposed have worked so far with their population and culture.

Quote

OSLO, April 6 (Reuters) - The COVID-19 epidemic is under control in Norway, the Nordic country’s health minister said on Monday, pointing to the low rate of transmission of the disease.

A person carrying the novel coronavirus in Norway contaminates now on average 0.7 other individual, Bent Hoeie told a news conference. The government’s goal was to limit the spread to maximum one other person.

The government will decide on Wednesday whether to extend ongoing restrictions, including the closures of schools and nurseries, beyond mid-April.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-norway/covid-19-epidemic-under-control-in-norway-health-minister-idUSO9N28600T

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9 minutes ago, retrofade said:

Really informative thread from the Chair of the NYC City Council Health Committee about what is really going on there right now. 

 

 

 

To be honest, that guy has the credibility of Donald Trump. 

0B25741A-4EE3-4553-BDBB-68DA8AAC8675.jpeg

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11 hours ago, FresnoFacts said:

As of April 5:

  • Sweden - 401 deaths
  • Norway - 71 deaths
43 minutes ago, Bob said:

I don't mean to sound too insensitive, but that's an inconsequential number of deaths, especially when you consider the likely average age of death.

Small numbers in small countries.

We should look at it on a per capita type basis then extrapolate to the US.

Currently the US is at 10,312 deaths.

  • Sweden - current rate of 47 deaths per million - equivalent to 15,369 deaths in the US.
  • Norway - current rate of 14 deaths per million - equivalent to 4,578 deaths in the US.
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5 minutes ago, mugtang said:

To be honest, that guy has the credibility of Donald Trump. 

0B25741A-4EE3-4553-BDBB-68DA8AAC8675.jpeg

you got yourself a conspiracy theorists dream

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https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
 

Don’t know how many people follow this, but the projections changed big time for California. The peak date was April 26th, now it’s April 14th. Washington’s peak was also projected to be April 10 or 11, now it’s projected to already have passed (April 2). 

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23 minutes ago, mugtang said:

Posted this in the good news thread:

 

The 'extreme' social distancing measures have been shown quantitatively to lower deaths by as much as 90% dependent upon the time at which they were enacted (as measured by deaths per capita per week). 

Some states got on this early, others not quite as early, and some are late to the party. 

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9 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

Small numbers in small countries.

We should look at it on a per capita type basis then extrapolate to the US.

Currently the US is at 10,312 deaths.

  • Sweden - current rate of 47 deaths per million - equivalent to 15,369 deaths in the US.
  • Norway - current rate of 14 deaths per million - equivalent to 4,578 deaths in the US.

It's functionally negligible. The death rate of coronavirus is not high enough to justify a complete shutdown of the economy. Tens of millions are out of jobs. Countless lives have been ruined.

 

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1 hour ago, Stealthlobo said:

Where are you finding this "pretty good evidence"?  I'm neither Republican nor Democrat, I make medical recommendations based on evidence.  However, after combing through the medical journals at least every couple days, I can't find anything except small studies from China.  I hope we do have a decent treatment for this disease, but we need more evidence to recommend a dangerous drug.

No clinical evidence of course, but plenty of, anecdotal evidence I guess, from doctors saying it's effective. Google it, it's out there for sure.

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59 minutes ago, Stealthlobo said:

Where are you finding this "pretty good evidence"?  I'm neither Republican nor Democrat, I make medical recommendations based on evidence.  However, after combing through the medical journals at least every couple days, I can't find anything except small studies from China.  I hope we do have a decent treatment for this disease, but we need more evidence to recommend a dangerous drug.

Like I previously indicated, if I’m close to dying give me that phucking drug. 

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26 minutes ago, FresnoFacts said:

Norway says their measures have the virus under control. Norway shut down early and did a high level of testing/tracking (a rate of 20,530 people tested per million population).

Too early to say for sure if they are correct. But if true, the measures they imposed have worked so far with their population and culture.

Quote

"A person carrying the novel coronavirus in Norway contaminates now on average 0.7 other individual"

This references the R0 metric and when that number is less than 1, the disease is no longer realizing a net spread within a population. Good job Norway.

 

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10 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
 

Don’t know how many people follow this, but the projections changed big time for California. The peak date was April 26th, now it’s April 14th. Washington’s peak was also projected to be April 10 or 11, now it’s projected to already have passed (April 2). 

It's almost as if all of these social distancing measures are working as intended or something.

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1 minute ago, Bob said:

No clinical evidence of course, but plenty of, anecdotal evidence I guess, from doctors saying it's effective. Google it, it's out there for sure.

It's f*cking hilarious to me that those so resistant to basic scientific and mathematical principles are equally quick to trip over the nutsack of allegory in their rush to jump on its tip.

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1 minute ago, TheSanDiegan said:

It's f*cking hilarious to me that those so resistant to basic scientific and mathematical principles are equally quick to trip over the nutsack of allegory in their rush to jump on its tip.

The right hates science because it so often disproves the fairy tales they cling to.

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7 minutes ago, Bob said:

It's functionally negligible. The death rate of coronavirus is not high enough to justify a complete shutdown of the economy. Tens of millions are out of jobs. Countless lives have been ruined.

 

It’s not in the current environment of social distancing, etc.  The numbers are exponentially higher and way more meaningful absent that.

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4 minutes ago, Bob said:

No clinical evidence of course, but plenty of, anecdotal evidence I guess, from doctors saying it's effective. Google it, it's out there for sure.

Ya... Well anecdotal evidence also states mucinex is good for congestion, Robitussin is good for cough, and Vit E is good for scars... All that is bs when compared to placebo. Still need more clinical evidence before we feel comfortable using it

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7 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

Like I previously indicated, if I’m close to dying give me that phucking drug. 

That's fine with me. If someone is dying, try anything and everything (similar to experimental cancer drugs). I'm just not comfortable using it in a general prophylactic situation.

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10 minutes ago, Bob said:

It's functionally negligible. The death rate of coronavirus is not high enough to justify a complete shutdown of the economy. Tens of millions are out of jobs. Countless lives have been ruined.

 

How have their lives been ruined. What metric do you use to judge quality of life?

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